US Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution

• The US has little interest in Africa beyond supporting fights against Salafi terrorists.
• The Wagner Group was set up by Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2014 as a private military company to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine that year.
• Assuming that Putin successfully represses the rebellion, Wagner mercenaries are likely to come under the command of the regular Russian military.
• I was re-alerted to the “return” of Russia to Africa in preparing a textbook, Africa’s International Relations, published in 2018.

Wagnerian misdeeds

Wagner has helped abusive regimes maintain power on the continent.
• The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project research group found that between 52% and 71% of Wagner’s uses of force in the CAR and Mali targeted civilians.
• Firstly, the Russian government has been on the lookout for military bases in Africa.
• Even before Wagner first got involved in Africa in 2017, Russia already had military cooperation agreements with 18 African countries.

A vacuum of opposition

• This small number of beneficiaries will stymie action against Wagner’s mercenaryism, which is banned under international law.
• Nor is there likely to be collective pressure under the umbrella of the AU.
• It can only organise collective action – as it did against apartheid – when there is a broad consensus on an issue.
• South African elites also value both Russia and China as counterbalances to the perceived western dominance that they still loathe.
• Lastly, China has been deploying its own private security companies on the continent, mainly to secure access to minerals.