Wagner Group is now Africa Corps. What this means for Russia’s operations on the continent
In August 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died after his private jet crashed about an hour after taking off in Moscow.
- In August 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died after his private jet crashed about an hour after taking off in Moscow.
- He had been Russia’s pointman in Africa since the Wagner Group began operating on the continent in 2017.
- The group is known for deploying paramilitary forces, running disinformation campaigns and propping up influential political leaders.
What is the current status of the Wagner Group?
- Recent reports on the Wagner Group suggest a transformation is underway.
- The group’s activities in Africa are now under the direct supervision of the Russian ministry of defence.
- Wagner commands an estimated force of 5,000 operatives deployed throughout Africa, from Libya to Sudan.
- But will the Wagner Group under new leadership uphold the distinctive modus operandi that propelled it to infamy during Prigozhin’s reign?
What will happen to Wagner’s modus operandi now?
- Numerous meticulously orchestrated campaigns flooded Africa’s online social platforms promoting the removal of French and western influence across the Sahel.
- Prigozhin oversaw the creation of the Internet Research Agency, which operated as the propaganda arm of the group.
- It supported Russian disinformation campaigns and was sanctioned in 2018 by the US government for meddling in American elections.
- Prigozhin admitted to founding the so-called troll farm:
I’ve never just been the financier of the Internet Research Agency.
the prevalence of low-intensity conflicts reduces the risks to mercenaries’ lives compared to full-scale wars like in Ukraine
the continent’s abundant natural resources are prone to exploitation
pervasive instability allows mercenaries to operate with relative impunity.
- Russia is increasingly looking like a viable candidate.
- In January 2024, Chad’s junta leader, Mahamat Idriss Deby, met with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow to “develop bilateral ties”.
Where does it go from here?
There are a number of paths that the newly named Africa Corps could take.
It gets deployed by Moscow to fight in conflicts meeting Russia’s geopolitical ends.
It morphs into paramilitary units under the guise of Russian foreign military intelligence agencies.
It splinters into factions, acting as heavily armed personal guards for local warlords.
- But this won’t signal the immediate disappearance of the Russian disinformation ecosystem.
- This is clear from Moscows’s backing of the recent Alliance of Sahelian States encompassing Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Alessandro Arduino is a member of the International Code of Conduct Advisory Group.