Wagner Group

Wagner Group is now Africa Corps. What this means for Russia’s operations on the continent

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, February 14, 2024

In August 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died after his private jet crashed about an hour after taking off in Moscow.

Key Points: 
  • In August 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died after his private jet crashed about an hour after taking off in Moscow.
  • He had been Russia’s pointman in Africa since the Wagner Group began operating on the continent in 2017.
  • The group is known for deploying paramilitary forces, running disinformation campaigns and propping up influential political leaders.

What is the current status of the Wagner Group?

  • Recent reports on the Wagner Group suggest a transformation is underway.
  • The group’s activities in Africa are now under the direct supervision of the Russian ministry of defence.
  • Wagner commands an estimated force of 5,000 operatives deployed throughout Africa, from Libya to Sudan.
  • But will the Wagner Group under new leadership uphold the distinctive modus operandi that propelled it to infamy during Prigozhin’s reign?

What will happen to Wagner’s modus operandi now?

  • Numerous meticulously orchestrated campaigns flooded Africa’s online social platforms promoting the removal of French and western influence across the Sahel.
  • Prigozhin oversaw the creation of the Internet Research Agency, which operated as the propaganda arm of the group.
  • It supported Russian disinformation campaigns and was sanctioned in 2018 by the US government for meddling in American elections.
  • Prigozhin admitted to founding the so-called troll farm:
    I’ve never just been the financier of the Internet Research Agency.


the prevalence of low-intensity conflicts reduces the risks to mercenaries’ lives compared to full-scale wars like in Ukraine
the continent’s abundant natural resources are prone to exploitation
pervasive instability allows mercenaries to operate with relative impunity.

  • Russia is increasingly looking like a viable candidate.
  • In January 2024, Chad’s junta leader, Mahamat Idriss Deby, met with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow to “develop bilateral ties”.

Where does it go from here?


There are a number of paths that the newly named Africa Corps could take.
It gets deployed by Moscow to fight in conflicts meeting Russia’s geopolitical ends.
It morphs into paramilitary units under the guise of Russian foreign military intelligence agencies.
It splinters into factions, acting as heavily armed personal guards for local warlords.

  • But this won’t signal the immediate disappearance of the Russian disinformation ecosystem.
  • This is clear from Moscows’s backing of the recent Alliance of Sahelian States encompassing Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.


Alessandro Arduino is a member of the International Code of Conduct Advisory Group.

Ukraine war: why propaganda doesn’t work as well in Belarus as it does in Russia

Retrieved on: 
Friday, February 9, 2024

In contrast, Belarusian people are far more wary of being drawn into the conflict.

Key Points: 
  • In contrast, Belarusian people are far more wary of being drawn into the conflict.
  • Additionally, a surprisingly low number of Belarusians (26%) said they would feel negatively if Belarusian soldiers refused to fight or follow orders.
  • Meanwhile, the country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, has allowed Russian troops to pass through his territory to invade Ukraine, and supported Putin’s invasion.

Why Belarus is different

  • For the most part, the majority of urban Belarusians surveyed want Belarus to distance itself from the war and express neutrality.
  • In contrast to Russians, Belarusian society considers the war senseless and harmful to Belarus.

Russian propaganda wins

  • In stark comparison to Belarus, Russia has developed a successful propaganda machine that is entertaining, confusing and overwhelming.
  • Flooding citizens with information that demonises its opponents is a key component to Russia’s propaganda strategy.
  • Russian propaganda uses a large number of channels and constantly disseminates falsehoods at high volume and speed.
  • This onslaught of propaganda makes it even harder for its citizens to discern what is false and what is the truth.
  • Research has suggested that Putin’s propaganda has elicited strong support for a military invasion among Russians, and that the Russian public’s preferences for using military force were easily manipulated.


Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

France's decision to leave Niger was a bad move: three reasons why

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Only four weeks earlier, Macron had refused to follow the instructions of the putschists who’d ordered the ambassador and French forces to leave the country.

Key Points: 
  • Only four weeks earlier, Macron had refused to follow the instructions of the putschists who’d ordered the ambassador and French forces to leave the country.
  • He argued that he did not recognise the new junta, which took power on 26 July, and insisted that his forces would remain in the country.
  • As a scholar of politics and international relations, I have been exploring the security situation and the rise of insurgency in the Sahel for over a decade.
  • The US resumed operations in some of its bases in Niger, having secured agreement from the junta.

The fight against terrorism

    • The country is actively involved in and contributes to security organisations such as the G5 Sahel and the Multinational Joint Task Force.
    • These organisations are involved in the fight against terrorism in the region.
    • The decision by France to pull out of Niger will have an impact on counter terrorism operations in the region.
    • France has been involved there for a long time and has soldiers who thoroughly understand the region.

Russia versus the US

    • Nevertheless, it is not unreasonable to assume that one of Washington’s reasons for making sure it remained in Niger was the fear that it might lose the country to Russia.
    • In Mali, the military junta replaced French troops with Wagner forces.
    • Since 2022, Russia has gained influence through the Wagner Group after the exit of France.

What it means for migration

    • The EU needs stability in Niger to stem trafficking and avoid another humanitarian catastrophe as seen in 2015-16.
    • Europe witnessed the highest number of migrants transiting through Niger and Libya into Europe during this period.
    • While serving as interior minister, Bazoum was instrumental in passing a law against people smuggling through Niger.

Next steps


    While I understand that increased diplomacy with the junta cements its authority, I think foreign powers should accept that there is a government in Niger that has some degree of popularity among the citizens. Frozen channels of diplomacy must be reactivated to prevent a total collapse of the Sahel’s security architecture and in order to achieve a quick transition to democracy.

Highlights - Exchange of views on the state of implementation of the new Civilian CSDP Compact - Subcommittee on Security and Defence

Retrieved on: 
Monday, October 2, 2023

Exchange of views on the state of implementation of the new Civilian CSDP Compact

Key Points: 
  • Exchange of views on the state of implementation of the new Civilian CSDP Compact
    02-10-2023 - 16:02
    Following the adoption of the EP Resolution on the implementation of civilian CSDP and other EU civilian security assistance, on 9 October SEDE Members will exchange views on the state of implementation of the new Civilian CSDP Compact, which was a concrete deliverable in the Strategic Compass.
  • The new Compact, which incorporated a number of EP priorities in the Resolution, should result in the enhancement of the effectiveness and capabilities of civilian CSDP missions through 20 concrete commitments taken by the EU Members States and institutions.
  • Members will also discuss in an in camera session the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the observations of the EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) as well as the fragile security context in the Sahel, including as a result of the accelerated withdrawal of the UN Mission in Mali and the role of the Wagner Group.
  • Members will also discuss in an in camera session the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the observations of the EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) as well as the fragile security context in the Sahel, including as a result of the accelerated withdrawal of the UN Mission in Mali and the role of the Wagner Group.

Zelenskyy's meetings with Trudeau and Biden are aimed at winning the long war

Retrieved on: 
Monday, September 25, 2023

“And when we want to win — when we call on the world to support us — it is not just about an ordinary conflict.

Key Points: 
  • “And when we want to win — when we call on the world to support us — it is not just about an ordinary conflict.
  • It was his first visit to Canada since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
  • This North American tour has taken place as the war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating.
  • Russia is making this outreach as Ukraine receives significant support and aid from the U.S. and its allies.
  • That’s why Zelenskyy has been seeking support in both the U.S. and Canada.

The myth of quick, decisive battles

    • The fact that Russia has so far failed to defeat Ukraine is a testament to the skill and capabilities of the Ukrainian military.
    • Western military officials emphasize the importance of quick and decisive battles to achieve victory.
    • Its success in defeating Russian forces in several battles during the summer and fall of 2022 created expectations that did not match reality.
    • In protracted wars, mobilizing resources and maintaining morale have greater significance than any individual battle.

Waning support?

    • One advantage Ukraine has possessed since the outset of the war is the superior morale of both its armed forces and on the home front.
    • Neither of these factors are fixed and can shift over the course of a war.
    • The recent G20 summit in India demonstrates the problems Ukraine faces over the long term.

Preparing for the long war

    • The longer the war lasts, the more likely other priorities may supersede or even replace it among Ukraine’s allies.
    • Read more:
      Ukraine's push for NATO membership is rooted in its European past – and its future

      This means Ukraine and its supporters must adapt to the long war.

    • First, the support the West and its supporters are providing to Ukraine needs to be adapted to meet Ukrainian needs.

Russia in Africa: Prigozhin's death exposes Putin's real motives on the continent

Retrieved on: 
Monday, September 4, 2023

Prigozhin, as leader of the notorious Wagner Group, had been the point man for Russia in Africa since Wagner first began operations on the continent in 2017.

Key Points: 
  • Prigozhin, as leader of the notorious Wagner Group, had been the point man for Russia in Africa since Wagner first began operations on the continent in 2017.
  • More than a single entity, the Wagner Group is an amalgamation of shell companies deploying paramilitary forces, disinformation and political interference in Ukraine, Syria and Africa.
  • Its leaders have been sanctioned by 30 countries for the group’s destabilising activities.
  • Prigozhin advanced Russian influence in Africa by propping up politically isolated and unpopular authoritarian leaders.

Maintaining Wagner without Prigozhin

    • It is no surprise that Russia would want to keep the Wagner enterprise going.
    • In Mali, Wagner is linked to more than 320 incidents of human rights abuses and hundreds of civilian deaths.
    • Wagner has also been accused of driving away local communities where it has secured mining concessions, effectively annexing African territory.
    • But this will change when it owns the repressive tactics Wagner has deployed.

Reassessments in Africa

    • Russia’s reach in Africa may be exceeding its grasp, however.
    • There is a growing awakening on the continent of how little Russia actually brings to Africa in terms of investment, trade, jobs creation or security.
    • Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal that had enabled 33 million tonnes of grain to get from Ukraine to Africa and other parts of the world.
    • This disregard, coupled with recognition that Russia offers relatively little to Africa, contributed to only 17 African heads of state attending the St. Petersburg summit.
    • Russia’s lawlessness at home and abroad is bringing into sharp focus what his world order would look like.

Wagner, conflict and poverty drive Central African Republic death rate above crisis levels: but where’s the aid?

Retrieved on: 
Monday, September 4, 2023

The Central African Republic (CAR) is one of the poorest countries in the world.

Key Points: 
  • The Central African Republic (CAR) is one of the poorest countries in the world.
  • The nation of roughly 5 million people has been in political turmoil since a violent takeover of power in 2013.
  • In an attempt to gain back control, the government unleashed a campaign led by the Russian mercenaries, the Wagner Group, in 2020.
  • This is an astonishing mortality rate, in terms of how people are suffering and how wrong the official statistics are.
  • While some humanitarian actors are doing their best to respond, the crisis-level mortality rate suggests that the needs in the CAR are largely unmet.

Mortality

    • One was in the part of the country within the government’s control (roughly half of the country), and one in the areas mostly outside its control.
    • We found that the birth rate was lower and the death rate markedly higher in areas outside government control.
    • Only 15% had received food aid distributions in 2022 despite high levels of malnutrition recorded in the country.
    • Another cost is that people are forced to make informal and illegitimate payments when trying to get to healthcare facilities.

What next

    • Estimates suggest that at least 500,000 of 7 million Rwandans died violently in 1994.
    • During Nigeria’s secessionist war in Biafra from 1967 to 1970 between 1 million and 3 million are estimated to have died.
    • In particular, are we in the humanitarian community ignoring one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises?

Ukraine war: two good reasons the world should worry about Russia’s arms purchases from North Korea

Retrieved on: 
Monday, September 4, 2023

US national security council official John Kirby noted on August 30 that arms transfer negotiations between North Korea and Russia are “actively advancing” as the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, seeks to feed his war machine.

Key Points: 
  • US national security council official John Kirby noted on August 30 that arms transfer negotiations between North Korea and Russia are “actively advancing” as the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, seeks to feed his war machine.
  • This would be a huge boost to the DPRK’s weapons programmes and, at the same time, greatly to the detriment of the UN sanctions regime that seeks to limit those programmes.

Flourishing military relationship

    • Recent developments have suggested a burgeoning arms trading relationship, despite denials from North Korea and the recently deceased Wagner Group owner, Yevgeny Prighozin.
    • In September 2022, the US suggested that the DPRK was supplying Russia with artillery shells in “significant” numbers.
    • In July, the US sanctioned North Korean arms dealer Rim Yong Hyok for facilitating unspecified arms transfers to the Wagner Group.

Brothers in arms

    • Most significantly, Shoigu was guided around an arms exhibition by the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un.
    • The exhibition featured intercontinental ballistic missiles, long-range hypersonic missiles and newly unveiled advanced drones, among a range of other weapons systems.
    • North Korean arms exports have grown steadily along with its defence industrial base since the 1970s.
    • The UN arms embargos have prohibited the import of major weapons systems from North Korea from 2006, and the import of all arms from North Korea from 2009.

Pyongyang hungry for tech

    • But its purchases will undermine the North Korea sanctions regime and help to generate revenue for the Kim regime.
    • It could also spur a broader renaissance for North Korea’s arms export enterprise.
    • Russia has a vast military, nuclear and missile industrial complex, which – although much of it is struggling because of sanctions – could provide Pyongyang with much-needed technological fruits.
    • But the potential technological payoff for Pyongyang could pose longer-term hazards for the world and must also be considered.

Ukraine recap: fallout from death of Yevgeny Prigozhin will be felt far beyond Moscow

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, August 31, 2023

Where were you when you heard that Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aircraft had crashed and he was presumed dead?

Key Points: 
  • Where were you when you heard that Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aircraft had crashed and he was presumed dead?
  • Within minutes of the visuals emerging, journalists and other commentators were scrambling to reach conclusions: was it a bomb on board?
  • The Wagner Group boss had been travelling with colleagues from Moscow to St Petersburg: had he met with Vladimir Putin?
  • On the one hand Prigzhin’s death may have given anyone seeking to challenge the Russian president pause for thought.
  • Read more:
    Wagner Group: what Yevgeny Prigozhin's death means for stability in Africa

On and above the battlefield

    • About 30% of Ukraine is now thought to be contaminated by mines, which will take decades to clear.
    • And, tragically, this means the deaths and injuries will continue long after the shooting stops.
    • At present there are about 40 aircraft being made available by Denmark and the Netherlands and more are expected to follow.
    • Read more:
      Ukraine war: the implications of Moscow moving tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus

History matters

Wagner Group: what Yevgeny Prigozhin's death means for stability in Africa

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, August 30, 2023

The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin after his private jet crashed on August 23 has raised questions about the Wagner Group’s future.

Key Points: 
  • The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin after his private jet crashed on August 23 has raised questions about the Wagner Group’s future.
  • Many in the west suspect Kremlin involvement in his death and are asking what will become of the mercenary group without its charismatic leader.
  • The Wagner Group, often described as a private military company (PMC) is a state-linked actor with close ties to the Russian military.

Wagner Group in Africa

    • Designated by the US government as a “transnational criminal organisation” the Wagner Group offers a range of services.
    • Described by South Africa-based think tank In On Africa as “more than mere mercenaries”, the Wagner Group has also discreetly but effectively put stress on Afro-European relations while bolstering autocratic governments.
    • The Internet Research Agency was directly associated with the Wagner Group via Prigozhin as its founder and owner.
    • Beyond propping up failed and failing states, the Wagner Group has faced accusations of targeting civilians and committing severe human rights violations in Mali, and CAR.

The circular business of conflict

    • Since mercenaries tend to thrive in conflicts, they are likely to profit by prolonging the conflicts they become involved in.
    • So the activities of a PMC such as Wagner can exacerbate conflicts by prolonging hostilities, as witnessed in Libya, Mozambique and CAR.
    • Since then, the scope of their operations has expanded with increased funding from Russia and the fighting continues.
    • He is a member of conflict research network of west Africa ( CORN West Africa).