On 27 January 2024, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced their plan to withdraw from membership of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), despite repeated efforts at reconciliation. Diplomacy scholar Nicholas Westcott explains how the decision may be the latest symptom of a deepening crisis in the Sahel, the area south of the Sahara desert stretching from Mauritania in the west to Chad in the east.
Why does their decision pose a threat to the region?
- So does the risk of potential hostility to Malian and Burkinabe migrants in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal.
- Stopping free movement between these three countries and the rest of west Africa would have serious economic consequences for all concerned.
- Other western countries risk being tarred with the same neocolonial brush unless they reform international institutions to reflect African concerns.
What are the drivers?
- This has been brought on by years of sluggish growth following the 2008 financial crisis, COVID and the Ukraine war, the impact of climate change and population growth.
- Elected governments are finding it increasingly difficult to satisfy the expectations of their citizens.
- It is almost a re-run of the 1970s when drought, corruption and development failures led to a rash of coups in the region.
Why have regional bodies like Ecowas not been able to help?
- Faced with the juntas’ threat of secession, African regional organisations, in this case Ecowas and the African Union, face a dilemma.
- Or do they compromise their principles to preserve at least nominal unity, and allow authoritarian governments back into the club?
- Nevertheless, it’s possible that the departure announcement is a bargaining chip to get more lenient terms for their reintegration into Ecowas.
What lies behind the military regimes’ announcement?
Regime survival has become their overriding objective. Their explicit intention seems to be to undermine the principle that African nations should apply standards to each other. The fact that African governments themselves signed up to these principles is as irrelevant to the insurrectionists, who want to retain power, as it is to the jihadists, who want to seize it. They have set out the following justifications for their withdrawal:
Ecowas provided no support against the jihadists
Ecowas has imposed “illegal” sanctions that are harming the people
Ecowas has fallen under the influence of foreign governments.
- They reflect an attempt to look like defenders of the poor and opponents of western influence.
- Populations are being mobilised and armed to fight the jihadists.
- Their official justification may be anti-terrorist duties, but their real purpose is to protect the regime from further threats of mutiny, coup or invasion.
- The migrant trade is already thriving again in Agadez, the key transit point in northern Niger to the Mediterranean coast.
Nicholas Westcott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
