Richard Wagner

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have sent Ecowas, west Africa’s main political union of 15 countries, a formal notice of their withdrawal from the bloc. The three countries are governed by military rulers who have overthrown democratically elected leaders over the past 12 months. The Conversation Africa’s Godfred Akoto Boafo asked political scientist Olayinka Ajala about the implications of the withdrawal.

Why are Mali, Benin and Burkina Faso withdrawing from the bloc?

• First is what they call the “illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible sanctions” imposed on them for truncating their democracies.
• Second is the failure of Ecowas to assist them in their “existential fight against terrorism and insecurity”.
• It has asked for a clear and definite transition timetable, especially for Mali and Burkina Faso.

What impact will the withdrawal have on Ecowas?

• The main impact will be on trade and economic development.
• Ecowas is primarily an economic community and the loss of any member will affect trade and economic development.

The economic collapse of the countries. These countries have strategic importance, especially in food security. Niger is a key source of onions while Burkina Faso exports tomatoes to the sub-region.
This would lead to an exodus of citizens to other Ecowas countries, further threatening the stability of the bloc.
Concerns that the three countries will enter into bilateral relationships with countries that might not be favourable to other Ecowas countries. For example, there are already concerns about Niger’s alliance with Russia after it severed ties with France.

What impact will it have on each of the countries?

• Citizens of Ecowas countries can live and work in any country in the bloc.
• For instance, there are more than 5 million citizens of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger living and working in Côte d'Ivoire alone.
• The citizens of all three landlocked countries would no longer be able to travel to other Ecowas states without impediments.

What impact will it have on security in the region?

• There is already limited security cooperation between the three countries and other Ecowas members.
• For instance, they have all withdrawn from the G5 Sahel, resulting in the collapse of the organisation.
• Ecowas leaders have indicated that they are willing to have a dialogue with the three countries.
• I think Ecowas granting some concessions to prevent them from exiting would be in the interest of the bloc and all the citizens of Ecowas countries.

Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• In the last decade, issues such as terrorism, insecurity and trafficking have characterised the region.
• Military takeovers have been a major source of concern in the region and beyond in the last few years.
• This is because Niger was seen as a “darling of the west” and a model for democratic governance in the region.
• The main actors in this scramble are the European Union, France, Russia, China and the United States.

availability of natural resources
strategic location of the region in Africa
economic interests of the countries involved in the scramble
defence and security cooperation in the form of arms sales.
Foreign powers all have their reasons to be involved in the scramble for the Sahel.

France

• Unlike Britain, France has maintained strong links with former colonies.
• Despite these cracks, France is keen to maintain its grip on these countries, especially pertaining to military cooperation and resource extraction.
• France was reluctant to pull its military out of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger despite the countries severing military partnerships.

Russia

• More recently, the emphasis by western countries on human rights, especially during counterterrorism operations, has pushed Sahelian countries closer to Russia.
• While western allies demand the rule of law, democracy, and human rights in return for security and economic support, Russia portrays itself differently.
• Furthermore, the Wagner group, the controversial private military company which is controlled by Russia, cooperates with some countries in the Sahel.

China

• Like Russia, China portrays itself as an alternative to the traditional ally (France) of Sahelian countries.
• With a mantra of “non-interference” and “respecting sovereignty”, China has entrenched itself as a “partner” of countries in the Sahel.
• China is keen to use the conflicts in the Sahel to test its arms products.

The United States

• A year before that, I had written about the security implications of the base for the region.
• Unlike France and China, which both have extensive economic interests in the Sahel, the US has a strong military interest.
• Niger, in particular, is strategically located and the US can easily fly surveillance and reconnaissance drones from the country to cover the Sahel, west and central Africa.

Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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