National Institute

Why the pound has shot up while UK economy is struggling – expert Q&A

Retrieved on: 
Monday, July 17, 2023

When Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting mini-budget triggered a UK debt crisis in autumn 2022, the pound plummeted to almost parity with the US dollar.

Key Points: 
  • When Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting mini-budget triggered a UK debt crisis in autumn 2022, the pound plummeted to almost parity with the US dollar.
  • In 2023 the UK has endured weak growth, falling productivity and high inflation, yet the pound has been the strongest performing currency among the G10 leading economies.

Many thought last autumn that the pound would keep falling to dollar parity and below. What changed?


    The Bank of England’s interest rate tightening is probably the key factor. Though also the government’s fiscal policy has been more restrained. Pound v US dollar 2021-23

But interest rates have been tightened in many countries. Why would it have made such a difference in the UK?

    • The equivalent UK rate has gone up from just over 2% to 5%.
    • Not only has the UK tightened more, the markets expect the Bank of England to keep tightening.
    • Yet the pound has also gained against other currencies like the euro (rising from about €1.08 to €1.17 over the same period).

Why has the US dollar been losing value?

    • The dollar is often seen as a measure of risk appetite – in other words, when the dollar is strong, there’s more pessimism in the global economy.
    • The VIX index is evidence for this: it is a measure of how much fear is in the market.
    • US inflation has been falling faster than in other countries, which all things being equal should cause the dollar to rise.

UK ten-year gilt yields are now higher than last autumn. Doesn’t that suggest sentiment about the UK has got worse?

    • The rise in gilt yields since then reflects the rises in interest rates.
    • UK 10-year gilt yields 2018-23

Is it unusual to see a currency strengthening so much when the economy is weak?


    High inflation and rising government debt would normally be associated with a weakening currency, so the rising pound is not a reflection of UK fundamentals. It could reflect the fact that investors are expecting UK inflation to fall quickly, but that’s not what forecasts are saying. For example, NIESR (The National Institute of Economic and Social Research) thinks that inflation won’t return to 2% levels until 2025.

Many thought Brexit helped to cause the pound’s 2022 crash. Does the pound’s appreciation reflect investors feeling more optimistic about Brexit?


    Probably the effects of Brexit on the pound were seen more in the one-off fall in 2016 after the referendum. The pound has never recovered to pre-Brexit levels. The pound’s performance over time

Who will win and lose from a stronger pound?


    The winners will include consumers of imports and those travelling abroad, particularly to the US. Firms that buy goods in dollars will be benefiting. On the other hand, exporters are losing out.

Is it good news overall?


    I would say so, yes. In general, it means that investor sentiment on the UK economy has improved and the gilt market has stabilised. It means there are net inflows into the UK economy (meaning more money is coming in than going out).

Where does the pound go from here?

    • When last published in January, it suggested the pound was 12% undervalued against the US dollar.
    • The question is whether the pound now keeps rising towards the sort of US$1.50 levels we used to see before Brexit.
    • However, a rising pound is conditional on the public finances remaining healthy and inflation falling in line with expectations.

As a summer heat wave pummels the US, an expert warns about the dangers of humidity – particularly for toddlers, young athletes and older adults

Retrieved on: 
Monday, July 17, 2023

So we’ll have more hot days and more extremely hot days, which result in an increased frequency, duration and intensity of environmental heat waves.

Key Points: 
  • So we’ll have more hot days and more extremely hot days, which result in an increased frequency, duration and intensity of environmental heat waves.
  • Kenney: The primary means by which humans get rid of body heat that’s built up is by evaporation of sweat.
  • Why are infants and older adults particularly vulnerable to heat and humidity?
  • So individuals on both ends of the age spectrum tend to be particularly vulnerable to what we term classic heatstroke.
  • Is the heat index a good measurement of how hot it feels and how people’s bodies are affected by heat?
  • It doesn’t account for radiation from the Sun, for example‚ but it’s much better than the heat index because it’s much more physiological.
  • Watch the full interview to hear more about how heat and humidity affect your health.

Luis de Guindos: The inflation outlook and monetary policy in the euro area

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, July 8, 2023

    The most recent dataset covers ratings data until December 2022.

Key Points: 
  •     The most recent dataset covers ratings data until December 2022.
  • CEREP provides information on credit ratings issued by Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) which are either registered or certified in the European Union.
Sarah Edwards 

Intake to the National Institute of Circus Arts has been ‘paused’. Where to next for Australia's performing arts training?

Retrieved on: 
Wednesday, July 5, 2023

In the same week across the Tasman, Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington announced savage cuts to its theatre and music programs.

Key Points: 
  • In the same week across the Tasman, Te Herenga Waka-Victoria University of Wellington announced savage cuts to its theatre and music programs.
  • Whatever the rationale, they speak to a lack of imagination and creativity in the administration of the contemporary university.

An independent institution

    • The board declared the aims of the proposal could not “be fulfilled by a course which conformed to indispensable university standards”.
    • After this rejection, a similar proposal progressed at the University of New South Wales, with one critical difference.

Intellectual rigour

    • Universities were sceptical of the intellectual rigour of artistic practice in the institution, both in prospective students and in staff.
    • Universities were also concerned about the lack of funding or teaching space for the higher intensity and longer hours demanded over more traditional tertiary subjects.
    • One exception stands out: the long-running actor training offered at Flinders University began in 1971, just five years after the university opened in 1966.

Merging with the universities

    • These colleges sat between TAFE institutions and universities, focusing on more vocational disciplines and awarding certificates, diplomas, and eventually degrees.
    • In the early 1990s, the Dawkins Reforms merged some technical and vocational providers with universities, and granted university status to others.
    • This brought more arts training programs into universities.
    • These new universities were beginning to articulate an academic identity.

The value of arts training

    • This false binary discounts the ways in which knowledge is made by and held in the body, and the rigorous research-informed training cultures that have developed in university performing arts programs since the 1990s.
    • Too often, the universities themselves aren’t able to take on the very acts of imagination that characterise the training offered to students.
    • Far from being expensive follies incompatible with the institution, arts training programs act as the shopfront for the university.

Antidepressants can cause withdrawal symptoms – here’s what you need to know

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, June 22, 2023

Millions of people worldwide take antidepressants to help with depression. But as a recent BBC Panorama found, many aren’t aware of the fact that antidepressants can cause withdrawal symptoms when you stop taking them. For some, these symptoms can be severe and long-lasting. Here’s what you should know.What causes antidepressant withdrawal?This process of adaption is often termed physical dependence, which leads to tolerance (lessening effects over time) and withdrawal when stopping.

Key Points: 


Millions of people worldwide take antidepressants to help with depression. But as a recent BBC Panorama found, many aren’t aware of the fact that antidepressants can cause withdrawal symptoms when you stop taking them. For some, these symptoms can be severe and long-lasting. Here’s what you should know.

What causes antidepressant withdrawal?

    • This process of adaption is often termed physical dependence, which leads to tolerance (lessening effects over time) and withdrawal when stopping.
    • After even just a few weeks of antidepressant use, our serotonin receptors become less sensitive, meaning that we probably need more serotonin to elicit the same effects.
    • This is what causes withdrawal symptoms.

What are the symptoms?

    • Emotional withdrawal symptoms include low mood, anxiety, panic attacks, irritability, anger, crying spells and feeling suicidal.
    • There are a few ways to distinguish withdrawal symptoms from relapse – the return of a past mental health condition.
    • Physical withdrawal symptoms will be distinct from the original condition, and sometimes the emotional symptoms are recognisably different from the symptoms you initially had.

How long do withdrawal symptoms last?

    • Many people (including practitioners) believe withdrawal symptoms only last as long as it takes the drug to leave your system – typically, days or weeks.
    • Clinical studies have also shown that antidepressant withdrawal symptoms can last for weeks, months and, in some people, years.

Does withdrawal only happen with long-term use?

    • One patient survey found only a small minority experienced withdrawal after taking the drug for a few months.
    • But more than half who’d taken antidepressants longer than three years experienced withdrawal – of which, half reported moderate or severe symptoms.

How should you stop antidepressants?

    • While some patients can tolerate this, we know that for many long-term antidepressant users, this approach produces intolerable withdrawal symptoms that can make it impossible to stop these drugs.
    • The last few milligrams of these drugs are the hardest to come off, so need to be reduced particularly carefully.
    • But it’s important people are made aware of the risk of withdrawal effects, so they can make an informed decision.

At FTC’s Request, Florida District Court Permanently Bars Deceptive COVID-19 PPE Marketer from Selling Any Protective Goods or Services to Consumers

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, June 20, 2023

The order also includes two monetary judgments against Romero, who has done business under the names Trend Deploy and Uvenux.

Key Points: 
  • The order also includes two monetary judgments against Romero, who has done business under the names Trend Deploy and Uvenux.
  • The first judgment is for $989,483.69, to be returned to consumers harmed by Romero’s violations of the FTC Act and the Commission’s Mail Order Rule.
  • The court also entered a second civil penalty judgment of $2,562.21 for Romero’s violations of the FTC Act with regards to the COVID-19 Consumer Protection Act.
  • When Romero eventually did deliver the products, he often sent supplies that were inferior in quality to what consumers ordered.

At FTC’s Request, Florida District Court Permanently Bars Deceptive COVID-19 PPE Marketer from Selling Any Protective Goods or Services to Consumers

Retrieved on: 
Monday, June 19, 2023

The order also includes two monetary judgments against Romero, who has done business under the names Trend Deploy and Uvenux.

Key Points: 
  • The order also includes two monetary judgments against Romero, who has done business under the names Trend Deploy and Uvenux.
  • The first judgment is for $989,483.69, to be returned to consumers harmed by Romero’s violations of the FTC Act and the Commission’s Mail Order Rule.
  • The court also entered a second civil penalty judgment of $2,562.21 for Romero’s violations of the FTC Act with regards to the COVID-19 Consumer Protection Act.
  • When Romero eventually did deliver the products, he often sent supplies that were inferior in quality to what consumers ordered.

Wegovy: more people may soon be eligible to access weight-loss drug under new pilot scheme

Retrieved on: 
Thursday, June 15, 2023

Obesity is associated with many health conditions including high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, heart attacks, stroke and cancer.

Key Points: 
  • Obesity is associated with many health conditions including high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, heart attacks, stroke and cancer.
  • Under the new pilot scheme, however, it’s hoped these drugs can also be prescribed by GPs and specialist pharmacies.
  • This would remove the long wait for a clinical appointment, making the drug available to thousands more patients in England.

How does Wegovy work?

    • Wegovy is the brand name of semaglutide – a drug that mimics a naturally-occurring hormone in the body which is released in the intestines after we eat.
    • Semaglutide mimics it, reducing a person’s hunger levels and making it easier for them to lose weight.

Are there any downsides?

    • Another pitfall of using semaglutide to manage obesity is whether and when to stop it.
    • Another problem with taking semaglutide to manage obesity is that some weight regain, after stopping the drug, is nearly inevitable.
    • The cost to the NHS (for lower doses to treat diabetes) is approximately £75 for a pack of four pens.
    • But calculating this is complicated, since obesity affects so many areas of physical and mental health.

Will the pilot scheme be helpful?

    • Tier 1 includes public health lifestyle messages - for example, health promotion from primary care such as your GP or local pharmacy.
    • Tiers 3 and 4 are mostly hospital-based and include the provision of weight-loss drugs or bariatric surgery.
    • The new pilot scheme would streamline access to weight-loss medications, making care more equal in all parts of the country.
    • Without effective implementation of a range of lifestyle-related policies alongside roll-out of the pilot scheme, it’s likely that expanding access to Wegovy may not have as great an effect as hoped.

Should I get the flu vaccine? South African experts say yes - here's why

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, June 10, 2023

Influenza (flu) is an acute respiratory illness caused by an infection of the respiratory tract with the influenza virus.

Key Points: 
  • Influenza (flu) is an acute respiratory illness caused by an infection of the respiratory tract with the influenza virus.
  • For most people, recovering from flu involves a few days of mild symptoms which resolve with symptomatic treatment.
  • The main reason to get the flu vaccine is to lower your risk of being sick with flu.
  • But certain groups of people are at risk of having severe flu illness or having flu complications or death.

We need to prepare for the public safety hazards posed by artificial intelligence

Retrieved on: 
Sunday, May 14, 2023

For the most part, the focus of contemporary emergency management has been on natural, technological and human-made hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, tornadoes, industrial accidents, extreme weather events and cyber attacks.

Key Points: 
  • For the most part, the focus of contemporary emergency management has been on natural, technological and human-made hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, tornadoes, industrial accidents, extreme weather events and cyber attacks.
  • However, with the increase in the availability and capabilities of artificial intelligence, we may soon see emerging public safety hazards related to these technologies that we will need to mitigate and prepare for.

AI and hazard classification

    • As the use of AI increases, there will be more adverse events caused by human error in AI models or technological failures in AI based technologies.
    • Intentional AI hazards are potential threats that are caused by using AI to harm people and properties.
    • In my view, this simple intentional and unintentional classification may not be sufficient in case of AI.

Public safety risks

    • Public safety and emergency management experts use risk matrices to assess and compare risks.
    • Hazards with high frequency or high consequence or high in both consequence and frequency are classified as high risks.
    • Up until now, AI hazards and risks have not been added into the risk assessment matrices much beyond organizational use of AI applications.

AI risk assessment

    • The report warned that AI technology is advancing very quickly and that risk control measures must be in place before they overwhelm the systems.
    • Governments have also started developing some risk assessment guidelines for the use of AI-based technologies and solutions.
    • The proposed voluntary AI risk assessment framework recommends banning the use of AI systems that present unacceptable risks.

Threats and competition

    • Much of the national level policy focus on AI has been from national security and global competition perspectives — the national security and economic risks of falling behind in the AI technology.
    • The U.S. National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence highlighted national security risks associated with AI.
    • These were not from the public threats of the technology itself, but from losing out in the global competition for AI development in other countries, including China.

Faster than policy

    • AI development is progressing much faster than government and corporate policies in understanding, foreseeing and managing the risks.
    • While we should collectively and proactively try for such governance mechanisms, we all need to brace for major catastrophic AI’s impacts on our systems and societies.