Ukraine war: Russia's threat to station nuclear warheads in Belarus – what you need to know
Retrieved on:
Wednesday, June 21, 2023
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He was reacting to questioning from journalists as to whether he believed Belarus had been taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
Key Points:
- He was reacting to questioning from journalists as to whether he believed Belarus had been taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
- If true, it’s the first time Russia has deployed nuclear warheads outside its borders since the end of the cold war.
- It would change the nature of the relationship between Russia and Belarus and bring Belarus deeper under Russian control.
The real target
- This will require a significant Russian military presence and permanent military bases in Belarus.
- Belarusians do not want to have Russian nuclear weapons on their soil.
- Researchers from Chatham House who regularly conduct surveys in Belarus have found that 74% of respondents in their March 2023 survey objected to deployment.
- After Russia went into Ukraine, a Chatham House survey found that 47% were against the invasion, while only 33% were in favour.
Fallout from Chornobyl
- The memory of the Chornobyl disaster in 1986.
- About 70% of the radioactive fallout landed on its territory, and there is evidence that Moscow deliberately seeded clouds so that radioactive rain fell over Belarus rather than drift towards Moscow.
- The political fallout was slower but no less significant: over the years, Chornobyl commemorations have become an annual rallying point for anti-Lukashenko opposition.
Consequences for Belarus and beyond
- Consolidating his control over Belarus would be a significant strategic victory for Putin’s imperial ambitions.
- Preoccupied with fighting in Ukraine and lacking a clear and decisive policy on Belarus, the west has no obvious immediate response.
- But if Moscow follows through with its threat it would be a dangerous moment – not just for Belarus but for Europe as a whole.