From France to Italy, Hungary to Sweden, voting intentions track the far-right's rise in Europe
A little over a year since leader of Fratelli d'Italia Georgia Meloni rose to power in Italy, the latest data spells out a clear message: she is not the only ultraright politician surfing on voters’ anxieties. In fact, we may be entering a new cycle of far-right extremism across the continent, with heavy stakes for the next European elections in June 2024.A far right momentLast year, in France, Marine Le Pen won an all-time record-high 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election.
A little over a year since leader of Fratelli d'Italia Georgia Meloni rose to power in Italy, the latest data spells out a clear message: she is not the only ultraright politician surfing on voters’ anxieties. In fact, we may be entering a new cycle of far-right extremism across the continent, with heavy stakes for the next European elections in June 2024.
A far right moment
- Last year, in France, Marine Le Pen won an all-time record-high 41.5% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election.
- In Hungary, Fidesz took 54% of the vote in the parliamentary elections, landing Viktor Orbán a fourth consecutive term.
- In Eastern and central Europe, the far right is on the rise in Estonia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria.
Multiple layers of resentment
- Their nationalist and anti-establishment rhetoric resonates with growing political discontent among citizens, along with popular demand for authoritative and strong leadership.
- According to the region, ultraright politicians have taken a variety of stances toward Russia.
- The European elections of June 2024 are likely to see the far right entrench itself more deeply into the political landscape.
Voting intentions and seat projections for far-right parties in Europe
- Marine Le Pen has already begun a diplomatic blitz to rally her European far-right allies, and recently launched an offensive against Giorgia Meloni, her main rival for far-right leadership in Europe.
- In Hungary, Viktor Orbán is set to secure about his 2019 level of support, but is still isolated within the European far right.
Cutting cordon sanitaires
- In many countries, far-right parties have achieved a strategic equilibrium between government credibility and radical politics.
- Soon Austria may be added to the list, and possibly Belgium where the growing popularity of the Vlaams Belang is putting the country’s cordon sanitaire under greater strain.
- Such contagion has been most visible in the co-optation of far right’s restrictive immigration policies in those countries.
How European parliamentary blocs could evolve
- Other far right, pro-Russian parties such as Orban’s Fidesz remain with the Non-Inscrits (unaffiliated).
- Bolstered by her success in Italy, Giorgia Meloni is seeking a rapprochement with the European People’s Party (EPP), which would pull the ECR toward the centre of European politics.
- Meloni’s strategic downplay of European and immigration issues certainly opens the door to a broader alliance of the European right.
- The chair of the European parliamentary group, Manfred Weber, has clearly indicated that future EPP allies should respect the rule of law and unequivocally support Ukraine, singling out the Polish PiS for its illiberal drift.