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What's happening in Spain after the general election (and what it means for the presidency of the Council of the EU)

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, July 26, 2023

The election was called early.

Key Points:

The election was called early.
At the same time, the polls saw the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Sumar (a grand coalition of left-wing parties) losing votes.

Seat mathematics

In the Spanish parliamentary system the election of the prime minister takes place in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies.
The PP, the winner of the elections, has won 136 seats and Vox 33, totalling 169 between them.
In other words, the PSOE and its partners are a little closer to forming a government than the PP.

What happened?

Only the public polls of the CIS (Sociological National Research Agency) showed the PSOE as the winner.
An important structural element is the will consolidated in the 1978 Spanish Constitution for all regions to be represented in Congress.
The results were therefore skewed by the absence of votes from the Basque Country, Catalonia and Andalusia, among others.
The electorate also appears to have been unclear about what the limits of a PP pact with Vox would be.

What happens now?

If its candidate gets enough support in a first vote (absolute majority), the king will name a prime minister.
If not, 48 hours later another vote will be held in which a simple majority will be sought.
Currently, PP is asking PSOE to reach an agreement with it and allow Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of PP, to become prime minister.

The EU Council presidency

From 1 July until 31 December, Spain holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union.
EU institutions are used to changes of government, as they are in an eternal electoral cycle in the member states.
Amid a possible deadlock in Spain and an end-of-year general election, Pedro Sanchez would lead Spain for almost the entirety of its presidency of the council.

Early elections in Spain: The socialists' risky bet against the rising power of the right

Retrieved on:

Thursday, July 20, 2023

Two questions will keep analysts busy until well after the election.

Key Points:

Two questions will keep analysts busy until well after the election.
First, will it be possible to form a government supported by a stable majority in parliament?

From regional and municipal elections to general elections

The parties in the Spanish governing coalition suffered a historic defeat in the May 28 regional and municipal elections.
Before the regional elections, these two parties led five and nine regions, respectively.
The PP, for its part, absorbed Ciudadanos, a right-wing party whose centrist turn was obviously a failure and who gave up running in the general elections.
Vox, for its part, has made significant progress compared to previous regional and municipal elections, and holds the balance of power in five regions won by the PP.

Democracy against the far right?

In 2019, he called early elections in November, after being elected a minority during the April election.
He hopes to dampen the conservative momentum in the hope that the PP and Vox will run out of a majority.
In the May 28 elections, the PP and Vox won 38.68 per cent of the vote, which, in the general election, would result in 160 seats, far from the 176 needed for a parliamentary majority.

The left bets on unity

The election campaign coincides with negotiations on the formation of coalitions to govern the autonomous regions.
In order to better deal with the threat posed by the far right, the left is committed to unity.
Political forces to the left of the PSOE rallied in a new party, Sumar, led by outgoing Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz.

The right hesitates, then assumes its alliances

To counter the socialist call to block the far right, Feijóo’s PP adjusted its strategy.
He first called on Vox to let his party govern the regions where he came out on top without making concessions to the far right.

The left has few allies

This change of course reflects a persistent problem for the PP: in a fragmented party system, the right has few potential allies in parliament, deeming alliances with the Basque and Catalan nationalist parties illegitimate.
To those who ask him about the risks of a coalition with Vox, Feijóo passes the ball back to Sánchez with what many see as a false equivalence.

Voter turnout, a key element for socialists

Voter turnout will be a key element of socialist success, but elections held in the summer tend to demobilize the electorate, which risks benefiting the right.
In this context, Sánchez wants to force his opponent to debate, while Feijóo is happy with a weak engagement of the electorate.

Calculated risk?

For now, polls show the PP winning, but a coalition with Vox may not be enough to give it a majority.
Under the circumstances, Sánchez clings to the hope of staying in power despite the expected victory of the PP.

The 1930s municipal elections that put an end to the monarchy in Spain

Retrieved on:

Thursday, July 20, 2023

We have seen this in the case of referendums that were intended as mere ratification procedures.

Key Points:

We have seen this in the case of referendums that were intended as mere ratification procedures.
This was partly the case of the Spanish municipal and regional elections on 28 May.
Almost a century ago, another call for local elections led to the fall of the Spanish Monarchy and the birth of the Second Republic.

The Republican 14 April

Another one, the encasillado), saw designated ministers from the incoming government allocate seats to MPs in a bid to help them secure the comfortable majority required to govern.
However, the system gradually deteriorated, reaching its worst point under the dictatorship of General Miguel Primo de Rivera (1923–1930).
Deeply unpopular under the dictatorship, King Alfonso XIII sought to burnish his credentials by returning to the previous political system.
In Madrid and Barcelona, the Republican opposition managed to respectively triple and quadruple the scores of monarchist candidates.
That meant that local and provincial councils maintained their Francoist composition for more than three additional years after the dictator’s death.

A coin toss

On 12 March 1986, prime minister Felipe González honoured his electoral pledge by calling a referendum on Spain’s membership of NATO.
They were joined by some dissident leaders, the Socialist Youth and the (then still) sister union of the UGT.
Although the “No” vote won in Catalonia, the Basque Country, Navarre and the Canary Islands, “Yes” triumphed overall with 56.85%.
Regardless of who ends up losing out on 23 July, the fact is that such agonising approaches alienate citizen consensus and democratic quality.

Spanish elections: why devastating local losses to the right have forced socialist prime minister Pedro Sánchez to call an early national vote

Retrieved on:

Thursday, June 1, 2023

The local and regional elections that took place the 28th May have shaken up the political chessboard in Spain.

Key Points:

The local and regional elections that took place the 28th May have shaken up the political chessboard in Spain.
The right-wing Partido Popular took the largest proportion of votes and now has the largest number of seats in local and regional governments.
In one fell swoop the socialist party has lost around 70% of the local and regional power it had.

National identity

Ideas about identity and nationalism came to play an important part in what were supposed to be elections about local matters.
During the last week of the campaign in particular, national issues dominated the discourse.
The Partido Popular has constructed a rhetoric of being the only party defending the constitution and the union of the country.
The party, presided over by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has absorbed the main voters from Ciudadanos, the Catalan political start-up that was at first phenomenally successful when it came to national prominence in 2015 but has already almost disappeared.

Political leadership

He has managed to boost his international image with good performances in Europe and occasional visits to Washington and Beijing.
But there is little time for Sumar to establish a strategy that can turn a social movement into a political entity with representation in the provinces.
Meanwhile, Alberto Núñez Feijoo, of the Spanish People’s Party, proposes a quiet style of leadership.

Plebiscite

He lost three MPs in the 2019 rerun election and now he has lost ground in many regions.
In Catalonia, his acceptance is growing, but the seats it brings to the general elections are not enough.
In this situation, Sánchez’s only chance is to get as near to his current 120 parliamentary seats as he can.
Whereas local elections weren’t supposed to be a plebiscite on national government, next 23rd of July seems to be the rerun of a general election whose first round took place last weekend.