Sumar

• Two questions will keep analysts busy until well after the election.
• First, will it be possible to form a government supported by a stable majority in parliament?

From regional and municipal elections to general elections

• The parties in the Spanish governing coalition suffered a historic defeat in the May 28 regional and municipal elections.
• Before the regional elections, these two parties led five and nine regions, respectively.
• The PP, for its part, absorbed Ciudadanos, a right-wing party whose centrist turn was obviously a failure and who gave up running in the general elections.
• Vox, for its part, has made significant progress compared to previous regional and municipal elections, and holds the balance of power in five regions won by the PP.

Democracy against the far right?

• In 2019, he called early elections in November, after being elected a minority during the April election.
• He hopes to dampen the conservative momentum in the hope that the PP and Vox will run out of a majority.
• In the May 28 elections, the PP and Vox won 38.68 per cent of the vote, which, in the general election, would result in 160 seats, far from the 176 needed for a parliamentary majority.

The left bets on unity

• The election campaign coincides with negotiations on the formation of coalitions to govern the autonomous regions.
• In order to better deal with the threat posed by the far right, the left is committed to unity.
• Political forces to the left of the PSOE rallied in a new party, Sumar, led by outgoing Labour Minister Yolanda Díaz.

The right hesitates, then assumes its alliances

• To counter the socialist call to block the far right, Feijóo’s PP adjusted its strategy.
• He first called on Vox to let his party govern the regions where he came out on top without making concessions to the far right.

The left has few allies

• This change of course reflects a persistent problem for the PP: in a fragmented party system, the right has few potential allies in parliament, deeming alliances with the Basque and Catalan nationalist parties illegitimate.
• To those who ask him about the risks of a coalition with Vox, Feijóo passes the ball back to Sánchez with what many see as a false equivalence.

Voter turnout, a key element for socialists

• Voter turnout will be a key element of socialist success, but elections held in the summer tend to demobilize the electorate, which risks benefiting the right.
• In this context, Sánchez wants to force his opponent to debate, while Feijóo is happy with a weak engagement of the electorate.

Calculated risk?

• For now, polls show the PP winning, but a coalition with Vox may not be enough to give it a majority.
• Under the circumstances, Sánchez clings to the hope of staying in power despite the expected victory of the PP.