Uncertainty

• BARK, Inc. (“BARK” or the “Company”) (NYSE: BARK), a leading global omnichannel dog brand with the mission to make all dogs happy, announced today its preliminary third quarter fiscal year 2024 revenue ahead of its scheduled presentation at the ICR Conference.
• Total revenue was approximately $125 million, ahead of the high-end of its previously provided guidance range of $123 million to $119 million.
• Matt Meeker is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat at the 2024 ICR Conference in Orlando, Florida on January 9, 2024, at 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time.
• The Company also announced today it will report its third quarter fiscal year 2024 financial results after market close on Wednesday, February 7, 2024.

• How will all this affect the economy and the financial markets?
• Incumbent politicians have an incentive to call an election when the economy is healthier, to enhance their chances of being re-elected.
• There are also significant gaps between the time any electoral “hand-outs” are implemented and their effects on the economy.

Elections and markets

• The effect of elections on financial markets is similarly capricious.
• A study from 2000, which looked at 33 countries including the US and UK, found evidence of higher returns before elections.
• It’s hard to detect a meaningful and long-lasting effect either from the elections or changes in political leadership, particularly other events can often move markets more.
• FTSE 100, political leadership and UK elections The next figure looks at the US elections and stock market uncertainty, as measured by the Vix index, aka the gauge of investor fear – anything above 20 is considered to represent nervous times.
• The US stock market has tended to be lower before elections, before rising during and also after the elections.

• This seems to support the idea of investor uncertainty before elections.
• Yet the inconsistency returns when you look at the month after elections, with the dollar usually slightly weakening and the pound slightly strengthening.

What it means

• Yet that’s not to say the elections will be irrelevant to the markets in 2024.
• In the long run, however, what will ultimately matter for financial markets will not be short-term policies or electoral pledges, but the state of the economy.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• Total short- and long-term debt was $735.6 million, compared to $1,080.5 million as a result of strong cash flow in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 and the first three quarters of fiscal 2024.
• During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, the Company made changes to the structure of the organization as part of its global restructuring plan, Project Pegasus.
• Estimated cadence of the recognition of the savings will be approximately 25% in fiscal 2024, approximately 50% in fiscal 2025 and approximately 25% in fiscal 2026.
• The Company reports and discusses its operating results using financial measures consistent with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”).

• Pursuant to the Exchange and Subscription Agreements, the Company will exchange approximately $67.1 million in aggregate principal amount of the 2024 Notes for approximately $64.8 million in aggregate principal amount of additional 3.75% convertible senior notes due 2028 (the “2028 Notes”) (collectively, the “Transactions”).
• The 2028 Notes will have the same CUSIP number as the Existing 2028 Notes and will be issued as additional notes under the indenture governing the Existing 2028 Notes.
• The 2028 Notes are expected to trade interchangeably with the Existing 2028 Notes immediately upon settlement and be fungible with the Existing 2028 Notes.
• The 2028 Notes will mature on April 15, 2028, unless earlier repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms.