Poll Bludger

Jacqui Lambie Network could win balance of power at Tasmanian election; Labor lead steady in federal polls

Retrieved on:

星期三, 二月 14, 2024

The Australia Institute, Coalition, The Eras Tour, News, Liberal National Party, EMRS, UAP, JLN, Lead, Disagreement, One Nation, House, Liberal, Jacqui Lambie Network, Federal, Poll Bludger, YouGov, MP

The election was called early owing to disagreements between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker.

Key Points:

The election was called early owing to disagreements between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker.
Tasmania uses the same five electorates for state and federal elections, with seven members to be elected per electorate, up from five previously.
The YouGov poll gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%.
However, the Liberal National Party is likely to win the October Queensland election, so even if Labor takes power in Tasmania, unified Labor government probably won’t last long.

Federal YouGov poll: 69% support tax changes but Albanese’s ratings drop

A national YouGov poll, conducted February 2–7 from a sample of 1,502, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged from the mid-January YouGov poll.
On the changes to the stage three tax cuts, 69% supported the changes while 31% supported the original stage three proposal.

Labor gains in Essential poll

In a national Essential poll, conducted February 7–11 from a sample of 1,148, Labor led by 50–46 including undecided (48–46 two weeks ago).
This is Labor’s largest lead in Essential since early October.
Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).

Labor down in a Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge poll, conducted January 30 to February 7 from a sample of 2,040, gave Labor a 51.2–48.8 lead, a 1.6-point gain for the Coalition since the last Redbridge poll in December.
Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up three), 33% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down three).
Despite the narrow Labor lead on voting intentions, Labor held a 32–28 lead on economic management, which is usually a relative strength for the Coalition.

Morgan and Dunkley byelection polls

Labor’s lead increased to 53–47 in last week’s Morgan poll that was conducted January 29 to February 4.
In this week’s Morgan poll, conducted February 5–11 from a sample of 1,699, Labor led by 52–48.
The federal byelection to replace the deceased Labor MP Peta Murphy will be held on March 2.
Eight candidates will contest the Dunkley byelection.
In other byelection news, the South Australian state byelection in Dunstan to replace former Liberal premier Steven Marshall will be held March 23.

US Democrats gain federal House seat at byelection

I covered the United States federal byelection for New York’s third congressional district for The Poll Bludger. Democrats easily gained from the Republicans. I also covered the latest presidential primaries that show both Donald Trump and Joe Biden cruising to their parties’ nominations.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Labor’s Newspoll lead unchanged since December as 62% support stage three changes

Retrieved on:

星期一, 二月 5, 2024

A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in mid-December.

Key Points:

A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in mid-December.
Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (steady).
Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped one point to -9, while Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -13.
His net approval is still well below zero, and hasn’t recovered to its level before the Voice referendum defeat.

Essential poll: 48–46 to Labor

In last week’s federal Essential poll, conducted January 24–28 from a sample of 1,201, Labor led by 48–46 including undecided (49–46 in December).
Labor has led by one-to-three points in all Essential polls since late October.
Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 7% for all Others (down two) and 5% undecided (steady).
Analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor would have about a 53–47 lead in this poll by 2022 election preference flows.

Morgan poll and a second Queensland byelection

In last week’s federal Morgan poll, conducted January 22–28 from a sample of 1,688, Labor led by 50.5–49.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week.
Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 31% Labor (down 1.5), 13% Greens (up 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 13% for all Others (down one).
I covered the March 16 Queensland state byelection in Inala last fortnight.
A second Queensland byelection will also occur on March 16 after Ipswich West’s Labor member Jim Madden resigned to contest the Ipswich local government elections on March 16.

Biden wins 96% in South Carolina Democratic primary

At Saturday’s United States Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina, Joe Biden won 96.2% of the vote, Marianne Williamson 2.1% and Dean Phillips 1.7%.
This result makes it all but certain that Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
In the Republican presidential contest, Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley nationally by 73.6–17.2 in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate.
The next important contest is the February 24 Republican primary in South Carolina, Haley’s home state.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead

Retrieved on:

星期二, 十月 17, 2023

With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.

Key Points:

With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.
In Lingiari, where 40 of the population is Indigenous, “no” leads by a 56–44 margin.
The large wins for “no” in Lingiari and other seats with high Indigenous populations are caused by non-Indigenous people in those seats voting heavily “no”.
Most Labor seats have substantial support for right-wing parties, so this doesn’t mean “no” won Labor voters.
Dutton and Thorpe are negatively perceived for reasons other than the Voice, and Thorpe was opposing the Voice from the left.

Labor improved in pre-referendum Newspoll as Dutton sank

A Newspoll, conducted October 4–12 from a sample of 2,638, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since October 3–6.
Primary votes were 36% Labor (up two), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).

Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings steady, Dutton down

Albanese’s ratings were steady since September at 46% approve, 43% disapprove (net +3), while Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -7.
Essential has a Voice question that had “no” ahead by 53–38, out from 49–43 in early October.

Victorian Resolve poll: Coalition gains but Labor still far ahead

While Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, I estimate this poll would give Labor a 57–43 lead, a three-point gain for the Coalition since August.
New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a 38–19 lead over Liberal leader John Pesutto as preferred premier from the October sample of 553.

Liberal conservative alliance to replace authoritarian party in Poland

Labor and Albanese recover in Newspoll as Dutton falls, but the Voice's slump continues

Retrieved on:

星期一, 九月 25, 2023

A national Newspoll, conducted September 18–22 from a sample of 1,239, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago.

Key Points:

A national Newspoll, conducted September 18–22 from a sample of 1,239, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago.
While Labor’s primary vote improved at the Coalition’s expense, the drop for the Greens should have cost Labor preferences.
He returns to net positive approval after falling into net negative for the first time this term in the previous Newspoll.
While Labor and Albanese improved and Dutton fell, the Voice’s slump continued, with “no” now ahead by 56–36, out from a 53–38 “no” lead in early September.

Albanese records first net negative Newspoll approval as Voice support slumps further

Retrieved on:

星期一, 九月 4, 2023

One Nation, Poll Bludger, EMRS, Coalition, History, Human voice, Indigenous Voice to Parliament, Poll, Clutch (eggs), YouGov, Liberal, White, Pyxis, Renting, Newspoll, Labour

On Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 46% (up six) were dissatisfied and 45% (down six) were satisfied, for a net approval of -1, down 12 points.

Key Points:

On Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 46% (up six) were dissatisfied and 45% (down six) were satisfied, for a net approval of -1, down 12 points.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -11.
Here is the chart of all 2023 Voice polls by Newspoll, Resolve, Essential and Morgan that I first published in July.
Albanese’s Newspoll net approval of -1 is easily his worst this term.

As referendum set for October 14, 'yes' is behind and the poll trends are unfavourable

Retrieved on:

星期三, 八月 30, 2023

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today announced that the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14.

Key Points:

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today announced that the referendum on an Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14.
To succeed, a constitutional referendum requires a majority in at least four of the six states as well as a national majority.
A Voice poll hasn’t been conducted since the mid-August Resolve poll that gave “no” a 54–46 lead.

Ticks and crosses referendum issue

But in a media release last Friday, the AEC said that, owing to longstanding legal advice, ticks would be counted as “yes” votes, but crosses would be informal.
The “no” side is now well ahead in polling for this referendum, and that lead is increasing.
It’s very unlikely the ticks and crosses issue will affect the result.

Essential poll: 51–43 to Labor including undecided

In last week’s federal Essential poll, conducted August 16–20 from a sample of 1,151, Labor led by 51–43 including undecided (52–42 the previous fortnight).
Primary votes were 33% Labor (steady), 33% Coalition (up three), 14% Greens (up two), 5% One Nation (down three), 3% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 6% undecided (steady).
Respondents were asked to rate Albanese, Peter Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10.

Morgan poll: 53.5–46.5 to Labor

NSW: Mark Latham resigns from One Nation

On August 22, New South Wales upper house MPs Mark Latham and Rod Roberts resigned from One Nation, after accusing the party of “defrauding NSW electoral funds”.
They will continue to sit as independents in the NSW upper house.

Victorian Warrandyte byelection: Liberals crush Greens

At the 2022 Victorian state election, the Liberals beat Labor in Warrandyte by a 54.2–45.8 margin.
The Liberals defeated the Greens by 71.1–28.9, from primary votes of 57.4% Liberals (up 8.9%), 18.6% Greens (up 7.4%), 5.7% Labour DLP (new), 4.1% independent Maya Tesa (new) and 3.9% Victorian Socialists (new).
It’s difficult to interpret byelections that are forfeited by one major party, but the Liberals will be happy with the surge in their primary vote.
Many Labor voters clearly voted Liberal instead of Greens.

Right likely to win October 14 New Zealand election

LNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria

Retrieved on:

星期二, 八月 22, 2023

Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor.

Key Points:

Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor.
The only other recent Queensland poll was an early July Freshwater poll that gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.
Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state.
By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor for voters.

Victorian Resolve poll: Labor down but still far ahead

The Poll Bludger estimated this poll would give Labor a 60–40 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since June.
The July federal Resolve poll was conducted entirely before the games cancellation was announced on July 18, so only the August part of this poll would include reaction to this decision.
Read more:
Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed

Federal Morgan and Redbridge polls give Labor large leads

In last week’s Morgan federal poll, conducted August 7–13 from a sample of 1,452, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week.
Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 34.5% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others.
The Poll Bludger reported on Sunday that a Redbridge federal poll, conducted last week from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor a 55.6–44.4 lead, from primary votes of 38% Labor, 32% Coalition, 10% Greens and 21% for all others.

Additional federal Resolve questions

I previously covered the slide in Labor’s vote, Albanese’s ratings and support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603.
In additional questions from this poll, 54% wanted the next federal election after a full term is served in early 2025, while 20% wanted an early election in 2024.
By 35–33, respondents did not think Labor’s housing policy important enough to call a special early election of both houses of parliament.

Newspoll to be administered by a new pollster

'No' to the Voice takes lead in Essential poll; huge swing to Libs at WA state byelection

Retrieved on:

星期三, 八月 9, 2023

While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.

Key Points:

While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.
Here is an updated graph that I first published in July of Voice polls from Essential, Newspoll, Resolve and Morgan (which hasn’t conducted a Voice poll since May).

Labor’s voting intention lead increases in Essential

In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor led by 52–42, an increased margin from a 50–45 lead last fortnight.
This term Essential polls have been better for the Greens than other polls.
This is the Greens’ equal lowest primary vote in Essential, tying 12% in March.

Morgan poll and seat entitlements

In this week’s Morgan weekly federal poll, conducted July 31 to August 6 from a sample of 1,391, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week.
After four successive moves to the Coalition had reduced Labor’s lead from 57–43 to 52–48, Labor has made two successive gains.
Read more:
Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains

Labor holds WA Rockingham byelection easily despite huge swing to Libs

At the July 29 byelection for former WA Labor premier Mark McGowan’s seat of Rockingham, Labor defeated the Liberals by 65.2–34.8, a huge 22.5% swing to the Liberals since the 2021 WA election.
On the distribution of preferences, Edwards overtook the Liberals as minor candidates were excluded, and the seat finished as a contest between Labor and Edwards, with Labor winning by 61.4–38.6.
While this was a huge swing, there are extenuating circumstances for Labor.
Analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor’s two party percentage in Rockingham at this byelection exceeded Rockingham results at three general elections that Labor won with an incumbent MP.
The byelection suggests that Labor is still well ahead statewide against the Liberals, in contrast to a recent WA poll that gave the Liberals a 54–46 lead.

Voice support slips again in national Resolve poll; massive swing in WA puts Libs ahead

Retrieved on:

星期二, 七月 25, 2023

Here is an updated graph of the 2023 Voice polls by pollster that I first published two weeks ago.

Key Points:

Here is an updated graph of the 2023 Voice polls by pollster that I first published two weeks ago.
To be successful, a referendum requires at least four of the six states as well as a national majority in favour.
Based on June and July Resolve polls from a combined sample of 3,216, “no” is now ahead in four states.
On Australia’s level of support, 45% thought it should be maintained, 31% increased and 9% decreased or withdrawn.

National Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings slump

This is Labor’s equal lowest lead in Essential this term, tying with a 49–44 lead in March.
Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 48% approve (down six since May) and 41% disapprove (up six), for a net approval of +7, down 12 points.
This is his worst net approval in Essential since the 2022 election.

WA poll: massive swing to Liberals since May puts them ahead

The Liberals led by 54–46, a huge 15-point swing to the Liberals since the May Utting poll that was taken soon after Mark McGowan announced his retirement as WA premier and member for Rockingham.
Primary votes in this poll were 37% Liberals (up nine), 6% Nationals (up one), 32% Labor (down 20), 10% Greens (up two) and 15% for all Others (up eight).
At the March 2021 WA election, McGowan won Rockingham by an 87.7–12.3 margin, from a primary vote of 82.8%.
If this WA state poll is accurate, we would expect a huge swing to the Liberals at the byelection.

Tories lose 2 of 3 UK byelections; right fails to win majority in Spain

The Conservatives lost two with very large swings, to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but held former PM Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge.
The right had been expected to win an outright majority.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Retrieved on:

星期一, 七月 17, 2023

Labor’s gain came despite a two-point fall in their primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition also down one to 34%.

Key Points:

Labor’s gain came despite a two-point fall in their primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition also down one to 34%.
In the last two Newspolls, Labor may have been unlucky in the two party rounding given the primary votes.
This time Labor was probably lucky to get their 55–45 lead from the primary votes.
The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the first Newspoll of this term in July 2022.

Morgan poll: 54.5–45.5 to Labor

LNP holds Fadden at byelection with small swing to LNP

At Saturday’s federal byelection for the Queensland seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party defeated Labor by 63.2–36.8, a 2.5% swing to the LNP since the 2022 federal election.
Primary votes were 48.9% LNP (up 4.3%), 22.1% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.3%), 7.4% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.5%).
Analyst Kevin Bonham said the average swing at an opposition-held seat at a byelection that is contested by both major parties is about 1% to the opposition.
The two party swing to Labor at Aston of 6.4% contrasts with the small swing to the LNP in Fadden.
Turnout at the Aston byelection was 85.6%, while in Fadden turnout is currently 67.5% and is likely to only make the low 70s.

UK byelections and Spanish election upcoming in next week

While the Conservatives won all three seats by large margins at the 2019 election, there has been a massive national swing to Labour since.
The Spanish election is next Sunday, and the right-wing parties (People’s and Vox) are expected to defeat the governing left-wing parties (Socialists and Sumar).