Liberal National Party

Jacqui Lambie Network could win balance of power at Tasmanian election; Labor lead steady in federal polls

Retrieved on:

星期三, 二月 14, 2024

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The election was called early owing to disagreements between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker.

Key Points:

The election was called early owing to disagreements between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker.
Tasmania uses the same five electorates for state and federal elections, with seven members to be elected per electorate, up from five previously.
The YouGov poll gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%.
However, the Liberal National Party is likely to win the October Queensland election, so even if Labor takes power in Tasmania, unified Labor government probably won’t last long.

Federal YouGov poll: 69% support tax changes but Albanese’s ratings drop

A national YouGov poll, conducted February 2–7 from a sample of 1,502, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged from the mid-January YouGov poll.
On the changes to the stage three tax cuts, 69% supported the changes while 31% supported the original stage three proposal.

Labor gains in Essential poll

In a national Essential poll, conducted February 7–11 from a sample of 1,148, Labor led by 50–46 including undecided (48–46 two weeks ago).
This is Labor’s largest lead in Essential since early October.
Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).

Labor down in a Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge poll, conducted January 30 to February 7 from a sample of 2,040, gave Labor a 51.2–48.8 lead, a 1.6-point gain for the Coalition since the last Redbridge poll in December.
Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up three), 33% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down three).
Despite the narrow Labor lead on voting intentions, Labor held a 32–28 lead on economic management, which is usually a relative strength for the Coalition.

Morgan and Dunkley byelection polls

Labor’s lead increased to 53–47 in last week’s Morgan poll that was conducted January 29 to February 4.
In this week’s Morgan poll, conducted February 5–11 from a sample of 1,699, Labor led by 52–48.
The federal byelection to replace the deceased Labor MP Peta Murphy will be held on March 2.
Eight candidates will contest the Dunkley byelection.
In other byelection news, the South Australian state byelection in Dunstan to replace former Liberal premier Steven Marshall will be held March 23.

US Democrats gain federal House seat at byelection

I covered the United States federal byelection for New York’s third congressional district for The Poll Bludger. Democrats easily gained from the Republicans. I also covered the latest presidential primaries that show both Donald Trump and Joe Biden cruising to their parties’ nominations.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Labor’s Newspoll lead unchanged since December as 62% support stage three changes

Retrieved on:

星期一, 二月 5, 2024

A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in mid-December.

Key Points:

A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in mid-December.
Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (steady).
Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped one point to -9, while Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -13.
His net approval is still well below zero, and hasn’t recovered to its level before the Voice referendum defeat.

Essential poll: 48–46 to Labor

In last week’s federal Essential poll, conducted January 24–28 from a sample of 1,201, Labor led by 48–46 including undecided (49–46 in December).
Labor has led by one-to-three points in all Essential polls since late October.
Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 7% for all Others (down two) and 5% undecided (steady).
Analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor would have about a 53–47 lead in this poll by 2022 election preference flows.

Morgan poll and a second Queensland byelection

In last week’s federal Morgan poll, conducted January 22–28 from a sample of 1,688, Labor led by 50.5–49.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week.
Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 31% Labor (down 1.5), 13% Greens (up 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 13% for all Others (down one).
I covered the March 16 Queensland state byelection in Inala last fortnight.
A second Queensland byelection will also occur on March 16 after Ipswich West’s Labor member Jim Madden resigned to contest the Ipswich local government elections on March 16.

Biden wins 96% in South Carolina Democratic primary

At Saturday’s United States Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina, Joe Biden won 96.2% of the vote, Marianne Williamson 2.1% and Dean Phillips 1.7%.
This result makes it all but certain that Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
In the Republican presidential contest, Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley nationally by 73.6–17.2 in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate.
The next important contest is the February 24 Republican primary in South Carolina, Haley’s home state.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

LNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria

Retrieved on:

星期二, 八月 22, 2023

Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor.

Key Points:

Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor.
The only other recent Queensland poll was an early July Freshwater poll that gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.
Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state.
By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor for voters.

Victorian Resolve poll: Labor down but still far ahead

The Poll Bludger estimated this poll would give Labor a 60–40 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since June.
The July federal Resolve poll was conducted entirely before the games cancellation was announced on July 18, so only the August part of this poll would include reaction to this decision.
Read more:
Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed

Federal Morgan and Redbridge polls give Labor large leads

In last week’s Morgan federal poll, conducted August 7–13 from a sample of 1,452, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week.
Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 34.5% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others.
The Poll Bludger reported on Sunday that a Redbridge federal poll, conducted last week from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor a 55.6–44.4 lead, from primary votes of 38% Labor, 32% Coalition, 10% Greens and 21% for all others.

Additional federal Resolve questions

I previously covered the slide in Labor’s vote, Albanese’s ratings and support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603.
In additional questions from this poll, 54% wanted the next federal election after a full term is served in early 2025, while 20% wanted an early election in 2024.
By 35–33, respondents did not think Labor’s housing policy important enough to call a special early election of both houses of parliament.

Newspoll to be administered by a new pollster

Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed

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星期五, 七月 21, 2023

ICAC, Commonwealth Games, Liberal National Party, One Nation, Coalition, COVID, Independent Commission Against Corruption (New South Wales), Government, Federal Labor Party (NSW), Independent Commission Against Corruption, UAP, Clutch (eggs), MP, LNP, Liberal National Party of Queensland, Liberal, Private investigator, Labour

A Victorian Morgan SMS poll, conducted July 19–20 – the two days after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the 2026 Commonwealth Games would be cancelled – gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition, a huge 8.5-point gain for the Coalition since a May Morgan poll.

Key Points:

A Victorian Morgan SMS poll, conducted July 19–20 – the two days after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the 2026 Commonwealth Games would be cancelled – gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition, a huge 8.5-point gain for the Coalition since a May Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (up seven since May), 33% Labor (down nine), 12.5% Greens (steady), 10.5% independents (up 1.5) and 8.5% others (up 0.5).
Support for independents is likely to be overstated as not all seats will attract viable independents at an election.
The plunge for Labor in this poll is likely due to the public perception the government has been incompetent in its handling of the games ordeal.

Labor maintains huge lead in national Resolve poll

Resolve does not publish a two-party estimate until close to elections, but an estimate based on 2022 preference flows gives Labor about a 58.5–41.5% lead over the Coalition, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition since June.
Resolve’s polls have been much better for Labor than others since the 2022 election.
On economic management, Labor led the Liberals by 35–31%, little changed from a 34–31% Labor lead in June.
On keeping the cost of living low, Labor led by 31–24%, an increase from a 27–23% Labor lead in June.

Federal Labor maintains lead in Morgan poll

In this week’s Morgan weekly federal poll, conducted July 10–16 from a sample of 1,401 people, Labor led the Coalition by 53–47%, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week.
This is the second successive 1.5-point gain for the Coalition in this poll.
Analyst Kevin Bonham said Morgan’s respondent allocated preferences were unusually bad for Labor this week.

Fadden byelection near-final result

NSW Resolve poll: Labor holds big lead, but down since May

Bonham estimated a Labor two-party lead of 58.5–41.5% from these primary votes.
Labor Premier Chris Minns led the Liberals’ Mark Speakman by 39–12% as preferred premier (compared to 42–12% in May).
By 40–34%, they agreed Berejiklian should not have resigned as premier based on the ICAC report.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Retrieved on:

星期一, 七月 17, 2023

Labor’s gain came despite a two-point fall in their primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition also down one to 34%.

Key Points:

Labor’s gain came despite a two-point fall in their primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition also down one to 34%.
In the last two Newspolls, Labor may have been unlucky in the two party rounding given the primary votes.
This time Labor was probably lucky to get their 55–45 lead from the primary votes.
The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the first Newspoll of this term in July 2022.

Morgan poll: 54.5–45.5 to Labor

LNP holds Fadden at byelection with small swing to LNP

At Saturday’s federal byelection for the Queensland seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party defeated Labor by 63.2–36.8, a 2.5% swing to the LNP since the 2022 federal election.
Primary votes were 48.9% LNP (up 4.3%), 22.1% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.3%), 7.4% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.5%).
Analyst Kevin Bonham said the average swing at an opposition-held seat at a byelection that is contested by both major parties is about 1% to the opposition.
The two party swing to Labor at Aston of 6.4% contrasts with the small swing to the LNP in Fadden.
Turnout at the Aston byelection was 85.6%, while in Fadden turnout is currently 67.5% and is likely to only make the low 70s.

UK byelections and Spanish election upcoming in next week

While the Conservatives won all three seats by large margins at the 2019 election, there has been a massive national swing to Labour since.
The Spanish election is next Sunday, and the right-wing parties (People’s and Vox) are expected to defeat the governing left-wing parties (Socialists and Sumar).

Grattan on Friday: Fadden byelection is Dutton's immediate hurdle but party reform is the bigger challenge

Retrieved on:

星期四, 七月 13, 2023

The Liberals lost the seat of Aston at that byelection, which underscored the depth of Dutton’s difficulties in Victoria.

Key Points:

The Liberals lost the seat of Aston at that byelection, which underscored the depth of Dutton’s difficulties in Victoria.
Unlike Aston, which became marginal in 2022, Fadden sits on what is considered an impregnable 10.6% margin.
Both sides are convinced it will stay in Coalition hands, so it’s all about the size and direction of the swing.
Some matter, others don’t, but in today’s fevered politics, their results have impact in the moment.
In Fadden, both Labor and the Liberal National Party have had meaty issues on which to campaign.
Dutton is reportedly happy with the party’s efforts in Fadden, with the Liberal National Party machine running a competent campaign.
The troubles with the Liberals in Victoria are centred on the state parliamentary party but spread through the division.

Voice support slumps in Essential poll; LNP leads in Queensland

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星期二, 七月 11, 2023

The last Essential Voice poll in June gave “yes” a 60–40 lead, in contrast to a 51–49 “no” lead from Resolve in a poll conducted at the same time.

Key Points:

The last Essential Voice poll in June gave “yes” a 60–40 lead, in contrast to a 51–49 “no” lead from Resolve in a poll conducted at the same time.
The trajectories of Resolve and Newspoll are similar, while Essential has been the most friendly pollster for “yes”.
While Essential still has “yes” ahead, there is now a clear down trend in “yes” support in this poll.

Other Essential results: Labor leads by 51–44

In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor led by 51–44 (52–42 last fortnight).
This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Essential since March.

Be sceptical of claims of existential crises for current opposition parties

But when the Coalition unexpectedly won the 2019 election, there were claims of an existential crisis for Labor.
Internationally, there were claims of an existential crisis for United Kingdom Labour after the Conservatives won a clear majority at the UK 2019 election, but Labour is leading in current UK national polls by about 20 points.
This is occurring despite the generational effects the CIS paper claims will damage the Coalition.

Last fortnight’s Essential poll

In last fortnight’s Essential poll, voters were asked to rate Albanese, Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10.
Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive.
Relieving cost of living pressures had the highest score for not enough (75% not enough, 20% enough, 5% too much).

LNP leads in Queensland Freshwater poll

An April YouGov Queensland poll gave the LNP a 51–49 lead, although Resolve still had Labor ahead, but Resolve has skewed to Labor federally and in state polls since the May 2022 federal election.
Read more:
Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls
Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state.
The Poll Bludger reported Sunday that “no” to the Voice led in this Queensland-only poll by 50–36 including undecided, or 58–42 excluding undecided.

The new National Anti-Corruption Commission faces high expectations – and a potential mountain of work

Retrieved on:

星期六, 七月 1, 2023

Australia’s new National Anti-Corruption Commission is due to begin its operations today. Already there is much talk about who and what it should investigate. So what kinds of cases can – and will – the NACC pursue? And how will its performance be judged? The answers will be crucial not only to its own reputation, but overall public confidence in our newly strengthened public integrity system.Leadership is one key to successBut as an agency which still clearly has strong powers and substantial resources, its credibility now rests primarily on the good judgement of its leadership and how it performs.

Key Points:

Australia’s new National Anti-Corruption Commission is due to begin its operations today. Already there is much talk about who and what it should investigate. So what kinds of cases can – and will – the NACC pursue? And how will its performance be judged? The answers will be crucial not only to its own reputation, but overall public confidence in our newly strengthened public integrity system.

Leadership is one key to success

But as an agency which still clearly has strong powers and substantial resources, its credibility now rests primarily on the good judgement of its leadership and how it performs.
The first signs are good, with widely respected appointments by the government.
tide in the affairs of the nation, which might significantly change for the better the governance of our Commonwealth.

A clear first case for NACC to handle?

A clear example of the type of case the NACC should take on is the alleged abuse of public office by retiring Coalition frontbencher Stuart Robert.
Vitally, there is now an independent federal agency able to investigate and say clearly if there has been wrongdoing, or not.

Who can bring a case to the agency?

In fact, any member of the public can ask the NACC to investigate based on their concerns about what has been reported.
In the Robert case, Services Australia is already investigating alleged internal conflicts of interest affecting contracts won by the same consulting firm at the centre of the allegations against Robert.
Crucially, there’s another way the NACC can decide which case to take on.
If its own risk assessments, intelligence or the public debate identify cases of concern, it need not wait for anyone’s “referral”.

Could PwC be investigated?

There have been prominent calls for the NACC to investigate the PwC scandal.
Here, confidential government information about planned tax avoidance laws was used by the consulting firm to help its clients avoid the crackdown.
Or the Australian National Audit Office’s most recent scathing report on the government’s even larger health and hospital funding program.

Why other reforms still matter

For example, it is hard to imagine a more serious lapse of public integrity than the Robodebt scandal.
However, this is not the type of case the NACC is ever likely to investigate, because no personal corruption was involved.
To prevent such massive failures of fairness, transparency and legality, we need other reforms, such as a far more robust Commonwealth ombudsman.

Expectations are very high

This year's surplus will be bigger than the $4.2 billion projected at budget time: Chalmers

Retrieved on:

星期二, 六月 27, 2023

The surplus for the financial year that ends Friday will be larger than the $4.2 billion forecast in the budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will say on Wednesday.

Key Points:

The surplus for the financial year that ends Friday will be larger than the $4.2 billion forecast in the budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will say on Wednesday.
In a speech to be delivered in Darwin, Chalmers says the government had been “deliberately cautious” in its estimate in the budget, “given the history”.
“We’re expecting the surplus will be bigger than forecast in May.”
The surplus upgrade has enabled the government to recently announce $2 billion for housing, distributed to the states and territories before the end of the financial year.
The good news on the surplus comes as Australian Bureau of Statistics figures on Wednesday will reveal how the fight against inflation is progressing.

Support for the Voice to Parliament slumps in Newspoll, along with Albanese's ratings

Retrieved on:

星期一, 六月 26, 2023

Resolve had the first lead for “no” in any national poll two weeks ago, in a 51–49% result.

Key Points:

Resolve had the first lead for “no” in any national poll two weeks ago, in a 51–49% result.
On June 19, legislation setting up the Voice referendum passed the Senate by 52-19 votes after earlier passing the House of Representatives.
The crash in Voice support in both the Newspoll and Resolve polls suggest this historical trend may continue.
Read more:
While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle

Labor’s lead reduced

On voting intentions, Newspoll gave Labor a 54–46% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain for the Coalition from three weeks ago.
This is Labor’s equal-lowest lead in Newspoll since the May 2022 election.
Newspoll also gave Labor a 54–46% lead over the Coalition in March, according to The Poll Bludger.

Other polls and Fadden byelection candidates

Primary votes were 36.5% for Labor, 34% Coalition, 13% Greens and 16.5% for all others.
But 74% of voters said they no longer wore masks in public spaces, compared to 25% who did.
Thirteen candidates will contest the July 15 byelection for the Queensland federal seat of Fadden.
At the 2022 election, the Liberal National Party won Fadden by a 60.6–39.4% margin against Labor.

Liberal David Van now a crossbench senator

Dutton expelled Liberal Senator David Van from the party on June 15 over allegations of sexual misbehaviour, which he denies.
While Dutton can expel Van from the party, he can’t force Van to leave parliament.
Van is now a crossbench senator.

Other parliamentary news

This is the first major defeat for the government in the Senate this term.
If the Senate still won’t pass the bill in October, there is the possibility of a double-dissolution election, where all seats in both chambers of parliament face election.
The Poll Bludger reported last Tuesday on the interim report on the 2022 election by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.