One Nation

• The election was called early owing to disagreements between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker.
• Tasmania uses the same five electorates for state and federal elections, with seven members to be elected per electorate, up from five previously.
• The YouGov poll gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%.
• However, the Liberal National Party is likely to win the October Queensland election, so even if Labor takes power in Tasmania, unified Labor government probably won’t last long.

Federal YouGov poll: 69% support tax changes but Albanese’s ratings drop

• A national YouGov poll, conducted February 2–7 from a sample of 1,502, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged from the mid-January YouGov poll.
• On the changes to the stage three tax cuts, 69% supported the changes while 31% supported the original stage three proposal.

Labor gains in Essential poll

• In a national Essential poll, conducted February 7–11 from a sample of 1,148, Labor led by 50–46 including undecided (48–46 two weeks ago).
• This is Labor’s largest lead in Essential since early October.
• Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).

Labor down in a Redbridge poll

• A national Redbridge poll, conducted January 30 to February 7 from a sample of 2,040, gave Labor a 51.2–48.8 lead, a 1.6-point gain for the Coalition since the last Redbridge poll in December.
• Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up three), 33% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down three).
• Despite the narrow Labor lead on voting intentions, Labor held a 32–28 lead on economic management, which is usually a relative strength for the Coalition.

Morgan and Dunkley byelection polls

• Labor’s lead increased to 53–47 in last week’s Morgan poll that was conducted January 29 to February 4.
• In this week’s Morgan poll, conducted February 5–11 from a sample of 1,699, Labor led by 52–48.
• The federal byelection to replace the deceased Labor MP Peta Murphy will be held on March 2.
• Eight candidates will contest the Dunkley byelection.
• In other byelection news, the South Australian state byelection in Dunstan to replace former Liberal premier Steven Marshall will be held March 23.

US Democrats gain federal House seat at byelection

I covered the United States federal byelection for New York’s third congressional district for The Poll Bludger. Democrats easily gained from the Republicans. I also covered the latest presidential primaries that show both Donald Trump and Joe Biden cruising to their parties’ nominations.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• At the prestigious OTTplay Awards 2023, an array of outstanding talents took a center stage.
• OTTplay Awards celebrated excellence in digital content across 30+ categories, emphasizing on India's cultural diversity in digital entertainment.
• Avinash Mudaliar, CEO and Co-founder of OTTplay shared his enthusiasm about the success of the OTTplay Awards 2023, stating, "This year's OTTplay Awards have truly exemplified the diversity and excellence within India's digital entertainment space.
• OTTplay Awards 2023 set a new standard in Indian OTT industry excellence.

• With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.
• In Lingiari, where 40 of the population is Indigenous, “no” leads by a 56–44 margin.
• The large wins for “no” in Lingiari and other seats with high Indigenous populations are caused by non-Indigenous people in those seats voting heavily “no”.
• Most Labor seats have substantial support for right-wing parties, so this doesn’t mean “no” won Labor voters.
• Dutton and Thorpe are negatively perceived for reasons other than the Voice, and Thorpe was opposing the Voice from the left.

Labor improved in pre-referendum Newspoll as Dutton sank

• A Newspoll, conducted October 4–12 from a sample of 2,638, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since October 3–6.
• Primary votes were 36% Labor (up two), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).

Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings steady, Dutton down

• Albanese’s ratings were steady since September at 46% approve, 43% disapprove (net +3), while Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -7.
• Essential has a Voice question that had “no” ahead by 53–38, out from 49–43 in early October.

Victorian Resolve poll: Coalition gains but Labor still far ahead

• While Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, I estimate this poll would give Labor a 57–43 lead, a three-point gain for the Coalition since August.
• New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a 38–19 lead over Liberal leader John Pesutto as preferred premier from the October sample of 553.

Liberal conservative alliance to replace authoritarian party in Poland

I covered Sunday’s Polish election for The Poll Bludger. Poland does not have a major centre-left party. The authoritarian incumbent Law and Justice was defeated by a liberal conservative alliance. Strong results for the far-right AfD at German state elections and national polls were also covered.

• A national Newspoll, conducted September 18–22 from a sample of 1,239, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago.
• While Labor’s primary vote improved at the Coalition’s expense, the drop for the Greens should have cost Labor preferences.
• He returns to net positive approval after falling into net negative for the first time this term in the previous Newspoll.
• While Labor and Albanese improved and Dutton fell, the Voice’s slump continued, with “no” now ahead by 56–36, out from a 53–38 “no” lead in early September.