Brisbane Times

LNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria

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星期二, 八月 22, 2023
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Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor.

Key Points: 
  • Since the May 2022 federal election, Resolve has had better results for Labor in its federal and state polls than other pollsters, so this is a particularly bad result for Labor.
  • The only other recent Queensland poll was an early July Freshwater poll that gave the LNP a 52–48 lead.
  • Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state.
  • By the October 2024 state election, Labor will have governed for almost ten years, so there could be an “it’s time” factor for voters.

Victorian Resolve poll: Labor down but still far ahead

    • The Poll Bludger estimated this poll would give Labor a 60–40 lead, a 2.5-point gain for the Coalition since June.
    • The July federal Resolve poll was conducted entirely before the games cancellation was announced on July 18, so only the August part of this poll would include reaction to this decision.
    • Read more:
      Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed

Federal Morgan and Redbridge polls give Labor large leads

    • In last week’s Morgan federal poll, conducted August 7–13 from a sample of 1,452, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week.
    • Primary votes were 35.5% Labor, 34.5% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others.
    • The Poll Bludger reported on Sunday that a Redbridge federal poll, conducted last week from a sample of 1,000, gave Labor a 55.6–44.4 lead, from primary votes of 38% Labor, 32% Coalition, 10% Greens and 21% for all others.

Additional federal Resolve questions

    • I previously covered the slide in Labor’s vote, Albanese’s ratings and support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted August 9–13 from a sample of 1,603.
    • In additional questions from this poll, 54% wanted the next federal election after a full term is served in early 2025, while 20% wanted an early election in 2024.
    • By 35–33, respondents did not think Labor’s housing policy important enough to call a special early election of both houses of parliament.

Newspoll to be administered by a new pollster


    The Poll Bludger reported on Sunday that Pyxis Polling will conduct Newspoll. Pyxis was formed after two senior staff at YouGov, which used to conduct Newspoll, resigned to start their own polling company. I do not know when the first new Newspoll will appear, but it has now been five weeks since the last YouGov-conducted Newspoll.

Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls

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星期日, 四月 23, 2023
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Despite Labor’s gain on voting intentions, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped five points to +16, with 53% satisfied (down three) and 37% dissatisfied (up two).

Key Points: 
  • Despite Labor’s gain on voting intentions, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped five points to +16, with 53% satisfied (down three) and 37% dissatisfied (up two).
  • Two polls below show support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament slumping since December, but Essential and Resolve polls last week had the Voice’s support slightly up since March.
  • Read more:
    Voice support increases in Essential and Resolve polls

Resolve poll gives Labor massive lead

    • Resolve does not give a two party estimate until close to elections, but applying 2022 election preferences to these primary votes gives Labor over a 61-39 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since March.
    • Resolve has been the most pro-Labor regular pollster since the last federal election.
    • Labor widened its lead on economic management over the Liberals to 36-30 from 33-32 in March.

Support for Voice slumps in Morgan and Freshwater polls

    • This is the narrowest lead for “yes” in any Voice poll.
    • Other polls, like Essential which gave “yes” a 60-40 lead last week, have had high levels of Coalition support; Essential had 41% of Coalition voters supporting “yes”.

NSW upper house final result: 21-21 tie between left and right

    • The New South Wales upper house has 42 members, with 21 up for election every four years, so members serve eight-year terms.
    • At last Wednesday’s distribution of preferences, the Coalition’s seventh candidate defeated Animal Justice by over 10,000 votes or 0.05 quotas to win the 21st and final seat.
    • So the overall upper house is tied 21-21 between left and right.
    • The president of the NSW upper house does not vote except to break ties.

LNP takes lead in a Queensland state poll

    • A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted March 30 to April 5 from a sample of 1,015, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead, a one-point gain for the LNP since December.
    • Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s lead over LNP leader David Crisafulli as preferred premier slumped to 31-29 from 39-28 in December.
    • Fieldwork for the Resolve poll began in January, and Resolve’s federal and state polls have generally shown a pro-Labor skew relative to other polls.