United Australia Party (2013)

• Resolve had the first lead for “no” in any national poll two weeks ago, in a 51–49% result.
• On June 19, legislation setting up the Voice referendum passed the Senate by 52-19 votes after earlier passing the House of Representatives.
• The crash in Voice support in both the Newspoll and Resolve polls suggest this historical trend may continue.
• Read more:
  While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle

Labor’s lead reduced

• On voting intentions, Newspoll gave Labor a 54–46% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain for the Coalition from three weeks ago.
• This is Labor’s equal-lowest lead in Newspoll since the May 2022 election.
• Newspoll also gave Labor a 54–46% lead over the Coalition in March, according to The Poll Bludger.

Other polls and Fadden byelection candidates

• Primary votes were 36.5% for Labor, 34% Coalition, 13% Greens and 16.5% for all others.
• But 74% of voters said they no longer wore masks in public spaces, compared to 25% who did.
• Thirteen candidates will contest the July 15 byelection for the Queensland federal seat of Fadden.
• At the 2022 election, the Liberal National Party won Fadden by a 60.6–39.4% margin against Labor.

Liberal David Van now a crossbench senator

• Dutton expelled Liberal Senator David Van from the party on June 15 over allegations of sexual misbehaviour, which he denies.
• While Dutton can expel Van from the party, he can’t force Van to leave parliament.
• Van is now a crossbench senator.

Other parliamentary news

• This is the first major defeat for the government in the Senate this term.
• If the Senate still won’t pass the bill in October, there is the possibility of a double-dissolution election, where all seats in both chambers of parliament face election.
• The Poll Bludger reported last Tuesday on the interim report on the 2022 election by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters.