Argentina's economic crisis: whoever wins presidential election is on a collision course with the IMF
Retrieved on:
Monday, October 2, 2023
Argentina is heading to the polls on October 22 for a presidential election dominated by another profound economic crisis.
Key Points:
- Argentina is heading to the polls on October 22 for a presidential election dominated by another profound economic crisis.
- To curb the inflation, Argentina’s central bank raised the benchmark rate of interest to a horrific 118%.
- The country is also in recession, fuelled by a three-year drought that has done much damage to agricultural exports.
- In contrast, Milei is a radical conservative with no political baggage and an endorsement from former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro.
The dollarisation debate
- He argues this would cure inflation and stop the central bank from printing more money, which it has relied on to finance public spending.
- Bullrich denounces this 15% figure as a fantasy, though she too wants to tackle inflation by improving the public finances.
- Bullrich rejects Milei’s dollarisation plan as impractical, arguing the central bank would lose control over monetary policy and in any case has insufficient currency reserves to implement the plan.
- As for Massa, he contends that Milei-style dollarisation would exacerbate inflation because it would be preceded by a very poor conversion rate from pesos to dollars that would make everything more expensive.
Tax matters
- Another big talking point is tax.
- Retenciones can’t make such a difference this time because they never went away, accounting for 12% of the 2022 tax take.
- Nonetheless, Bullrich wants them reorganised into a savings scheme, with farmers able to draw from them at a future date.
- Meanwhile, Massa recently announced a plan to remove the lowest band for income tax so that those earning less than ARS$1.7 million (£4,125) per month will pay nothing.