Social security in Australia

• The budget is aimed firmly at the most vulnerable and has a significant focus on women.
• However, those on middle incomes receive little – although families with children can benefit from the extra bulk billing.
• Delivering his second budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said inflation remained “our primary economic challenge.
• As part of a bid to make Australia “a renewable energy superpower”, the budget allocates a further $4 billion.

• There has been recent speculation that former Liberal PM Scott Morrison will also soon retire, which would mean a byelection in his New South Wales seat of Cook.
• At the 2022 federal election, Robert won Fadden by a 60.6-39.4 margin over Labor, while Morrison won Cook by a 62.4-37.6 margin over Labor.
• At the April 1 federal Aston byelection, Labor had a 6.4% swing in its favour to overturn a 52.8-47.2 Liberal margin at the 2022 election.

Pre-budget Essential poll: 53-41 to Labor including undecided

• Primary votes were 33% Labor (down one), 32% Coalition (up one), 14% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (up one).
• Despite the Coalition’s primary vote gain, Labor increased their two party lead.
• That suggests respondent preference flows to Labor were stronger than previously.
• By 52-22, voters supported allowing New Zealanders who have lived in Australia for at least four years to become Australian citizens.

Morgan poll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

In last week’s weekly federal Morgan poll, conducted April 24-30, Labor led by 53.5-46.5, a three-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week. Primary votes were 36% Labor, 35.5% Coalition, 13% Greens and 15.5% for all Others. I believe this is Labor’s worst result in a Morgan poll since late November 2022.

UK local elections were disappointing for Labour

• I covered Thursday’s United Kingdom local government elections for The Poll Bludger.
• The Conservatives lost over 1,000 councillors, but Labour only had a nine-point margin over the Conservatives on the BBC’s Projected National Share.

Incumbents easily re-elected at Tasmanian upper house elections

• Every May two or three of Tasmania’s 15 upper house seats are up for election for six-year terms.
• On Saturday there were elections in Rumney, Murchison and Launceston.
• These results mean the status quo in the upper house is retained.

• Doing so will fuel the familiar generational debate about comparative levels of hardship experienced by older and younger Australians.
• Our research suggests their need may well be greater, reporting far higher levels of hardship than older Australians, even when depending on JobSeeker.
• It’s also possible that younger people are more likely to admit to hardship, though our research suggests this is not a significant factor.
• Read more: Presented with a JobSeeker finding too clear to ignore, he changed the subject: how Jim Chalmers is shaping the budget

• How Anglophile and monarchist Tony Abbott would love to have been the prime minister attending the coronation.
• To say nothing of John Howard, a key figure in fending off an Australian republic in 1999.
• While Albanese (who lands back in Australia on budget eve) basks in the international limelight, at home Treasurer Jim Chalmers this week has been feeling the heat of the spotlight.
• In current politics, the days before a budget are as orchestrated by the government as budget day itself.
• The budget will contain not just some welfare initiatives, including for single mothers, but other measures to address the cost-of-living crisis.
• But any suggestion that the budget should have spent more than whatever it does spend will undermine the Coalition argument about restraint.
• Beyond that, Dutton needs to unveil something substantial in policy terms, filling at least a corner of the Coalition’s current policy vacuum.