The NSW treasurer says a slashed share of GST will cost his state $11.9 billion. But where did he get this figure?
NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey caught the headlines yesterday, courtesy of a blistering speech condemning the latest GST carve-up.
- NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey caught the headlines yesterday, courtesy of a blistering speech condemning the latest GST carve-up.
- Read more:
Scrap the West Australian GST deal set to cost $40 billion – leading economists
So how much less?
- But since 2021-22, Australia’s GST has been allocated under a new equalisation arrangement.
- If NSW’s “no worse off” top-up payments are taken into account, the difference is only $188 million.
- Yes, that’s a lot of money to lose, but multiplied out over four years, it’s still well short of $11.9 billion.
Short-changed on population
- NSW’s beef with the GST carve-up is most likely that it receives much less than it would get if those revenues were distributed according to population share, instead of according to service delivery needs between states and territories.
- Next year, for example, with 31.2% of the population, NSW will only receive 27.1% of GST revenues.
- In dollar terms, the difference is equivalent to about $3.6 billion, which multiplied out over four years, would come to $14.4 billion.
- Distributing GST by population alone ignores different service delivery needs between states.
But what’s really fair?
- In reality, Mookhey has taken aim at the way we try to even up the financial capacity of the states and territories.
- Because of service needs, these jurisdictions receive a bigger share of GST funds than their share of the national population.
- Read more:
States agree to do more heavy lifting on disability, in exchange for extra health and GST funding
Spending, not income, likely the problem
- Most of the slippage occurred in 2023 after the budget was brought down.
- While GST revenues will be down compared to what was budgeted in 2024-25, revenues in total are well above budget, by $490 million.
- The problem is not revenues, but expenses, which have blown out by close to $1 billion, mainly due to the impact of rising interest rates on outstanding debt.
- Were the other two agencies to follow suit, it likely wouldn’t make a difference.
David Hayward does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.