Representative

• The bill is still subject to Senate approval and then needs to be signed into law by the US president, Joe Biden.
• But given the Senate’s previous approval of a similar measure and Biden’s vehemence of the need to support Ukraine, this should be a formality.
• Together with the morale boost for troops, this means that improvements in the situation on the front are likely – even before new US supplies will arrive.

Political will

• It is above all one of political will.
• The months-long delay in the US Congress was primarily an issue of domestic political posturing in a presidential election year.
• While their influence on funding decisions is much more limited, they could certainly create significant problems in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations.

Economic capacity

• There is some confidence that production capacity in the US and Europe, as well as in Ukraine, will significantly increase as of 2025.
• But even in an optimistic scenario of sustained investments in the defence industrial base of the collective west and increasing Russian economic and logistical difficulties to sustain its defence sector, a gamechanging shift in the balance of power is unlikely in the near future.

Russia holds the initiative, for now

• It also enjoys air superiority in light of depleted Ukrainian air defence systems, and has the operational momentum on the battlefield.
• If anything, Russia will now double down on its current offensive pushes.
• Given the continuing rhetoric of victory in Moscow and Kyiv, another forever-war might just have become more sustainable – for now.

Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU's Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

• The U.S. has been the largest single donor backing Ukraine since Russian troops invaded the country in February 2022.
• Biden has asked Congress to approve another $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and other allies.
• While the Senate passed this foreign aid bill in February 2024, it is stalled in the House of Representatives.
• It is not entirely clear when and how the House will vote on Ukraine.
• Still, as a scholar of Eastern Europe, I think there are a few important reasons why the U.S. is unlikely to cut funding to Ukraine.

Republicans are divided over Ukraine aid

• Johnson is facing pressure to delay voting on the Ukraine foreign aid bill for a few reasons.
• One major factor is fighting between Republicans, who hold a slim majority in the House.
• While some centrist Republican politicians support Ukraine funding and are pushing for a vote on the foreign aid package, others – hard-right Republicans – want a bill that prioritizes what they say are American interests, meaning more of a focus on domestic U.S. problems.

Delays on Ukraine benefit Putin

• As the House continues to stall on a vote, Ukraine is rationing ammunition and supplies.
• Delays with foreign aid to Ukraine give Putin time to move forward with plans to purchase ballistic missiles from Iran.
• Without foreign aid from the U.S., Ukraine will face a strategic disadvantage that could lead to Russia winning the war.

The US needs Europe to compete with China

• One factor is U.S. global power competition with China.
• Russian and Chinese leaders declared a military and political partnership days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
• They announced on April 9, 2024, that they want to find ways to strengthen their joint security work across Asia and Europe.
• U.S. political and military leaders have noted that supporting Ukraine and pushing back against Russia is one clear way to deter China from strengthening its global political power and military reach.
• The U.S. needs its long-standing allies in Europe to help push back against China – and deterrence is only as effective as the size of the force doing the deterring.

Foreign aid benefits US arms industry

• Most of America’s military aid to Ukraine consists of arms and ammunition from existing U.S. stockpiles.
• If Congress approves an additional $60 billion for Ukraine, more than half of this money would go to U.S. factories that manufacture missiles and munitions.
• In December 2023, Biden signed a U.S. defense policy bill that authorizes a record-high $886 billion in spending from July 2023 through June 2024.
• But it also allows for the purchasing of new ships, aircraft and other types of ammunition.

Americans continue to support Ukraine aid

A majority of Americans still favor U.S. support of Ukraine, though about half of Republicans said in December 2023 that the U.S. is giving too much money to the country. Even though politicians do not always follow public opinion, there are clear reasons why it is not in the U.S.’s best interests to cut funding to Ukraine.
Tatsiana Kulakevich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• Coral Gables, Florida--(Newsfile Corp. - April 3, 2024) - Epluribus LLC, creators of MOXY™, announced in-depth reporting on campaign contributions to U.S. Congressional and Presidential campaigns within its just-released 4.0 app and website platform.
• Contributions in the 2020 national election cycle skyrocketed to nearly $8 billion yet the 2024 cycle appears on the track to demolish that record.
• The funds reaped from large individual donors and organizations, such as wealthy individuals and political action committees (PACs), far outweigh the contributions made by small individual donors by a factor of 3-times.
• Due to the expense of running a campaign, candidates for public office must solicit contributions across the spectrum but more quickly reach their fundraising goals by targeting special interest groups and deep-pocketed donors.

• MAPLE GROVE, Minn., March 26, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TopLine Financial Credit Union , a Twin Cities-based member-owned financial services cooperative , visited Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., March 3 to March 7, 2024, as part of the annual America’s Credit Unions Governmental Affairs Conference, the credit union industry’s largest advocacy event.
• During the conference, TopLine executives and officials, along with over 6,000 other credit union professionals, board members and Minnesota Credit Union Network (MnCUN) staff members, discussed several top credit union issues with key legislative staff members.
• Minnesota Credit Union Network (MnCUN) is the statewide trade association that works to ensure the success, growth and vitality of Minnesota credit union.
• TopLine Financial Credit Union , a Twin Cities-based credit union, is Minnesota’s 11th largest credit union, with assets of over $800 million and serves over 51,000 members.