Conservatism

Voice support slips again in national Resolve poll; massive swing in WA puts Libs ahead

Retrieved on:

Martedì, Luglio 25, 2023

Here is an updated graph of the 2023 Voice polls by pollster that I first published two weeks ago.

Key Points:

Here is an updated graph of the 2023 Voice polls by pollster that I first published two weeks ago.
To be successful, a referendum requires at least four of the six states as well as a national majority in favour.
Based on June and July Resolve polls from a combined sample of 3,216, “no” is now ahead in four states.
On Australia’s level of support, 45% thought it should be maintained, 31% increased and 9% decreased or withdrawn.

National Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings slump

This is Labor’s equal lowest lead in Essential this term, tying with a 49–44 lead in March.
Anthony Albanese’s ratings were 48% approve (down six since May) and 41% disapprove (up six), for a net approval of +7, down 12 points.
This is his worst net approval in Essential since the 2022 election.

WA poll: massive swing to Liberals since May puts them ahead

The Liberals led by 54–46, a huge 15-point swing to the Liberals since the May Utting poll that was taken soon after Mark McGowan announced his retirement as WA premier and member for Rockingham.
Primary votes in this poll were 37% Liberals (up nine), 6% Nationals (up one), 32% Labor (down 20), 10% Greens (up two) and 15% for all Others (up eight).
At the March 2021 WA election, McGowan won Rockingham by an 87.7–12.3 margin, from a primary vote of 82.8%.
If this WA state poll is accurate, we would expect a huge swing to the Liberals at the byelection.

Tories lose 2 of 3 UK byelections; right fails to win majority in Spain

The Conservatives lost two with very large swings, to Labour and the Liberal Democrats, but held former PM Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge.
The right had been expected to win an outright majority.

Byelection losses are terrible for the Conservatives – but there are glimmers of hope

Retrieved on:

Venerdì, Luglio 21, 2023

The unpopularity of London Labour Mayor’s Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ultra low emissions zone (Ulez) undoubtedly contributed to the Conservative defence of Uxbridge.

Key Points:

The unpopularity of London Labour Mayor’s Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ultra low emissions zone (Ulez) undoubtedly contributed to the Conservative defence of Uxbridge.
But the party’s losses in Somerton and Frome in Somerset, and Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, are notable.
Read more:
Boris Johnson resignation: why Rishi Sunak can't afford to lose more than one of three impending byelections

Historic Labour win

Selby and Ainsty was the Conservatives’ second byelection loss to Labour during this term, and it was significant.
The result was worse for the Conservatives than their previous loss to Keir Starmer’s party in Wakefield.
That saw “only” a 12.6% swing to Labour, barely guaranteed to give the opposition an overall majority.

Echoes from history

This is all reminiscent of when the Conservatives last crashed out of office in 1997.
During the 1992-97 parliament, the Conservatives lost all eight seats they defended in byelections: four to the Liberal Democrats, three to Labour and one to the SNP.
For a while, some clung to the hope that Sunak and Starmer’s popularity ratings were close enough to give them a chance.

What the future holds for the Conservatives

Under the Recall of MPs Act, only 10% of constituents need to sign a petition to generate the contest.
An autumn byelection would be most unwelcome for a Conservative Party attempting a relaunch at its conference in Manchester in October.
And at some point, Nadine Dorries will end the longest resignation in political history and step down from her Mid-Bedfordshire seat.
Two is that the Conservatives have one final budget with which to put more money in people’s pockets.

Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

Retrieved on:

Lunedì, Luglio 17, 2023

Labor’s gain came despite a two-point fall in their primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition also down one to 34%.

Key Points:

Labor’s gain came despite a two-point fall in their primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition also down one to 34%.
In the last two Newspolls, Labor may have been unlucky in the two party rounding given the primary votes.
This time Labor was probably lucky to get their 55–45 lead from the primary votes.
The graph below shows Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll since the first Newspoll of this term in July 2022.

Morgan poll: 54.5–45.5 to Labor

LNP holds Fadden at byelection with small swing to LNP

At Saturday’s federal byelection for the Queensland seat of Fadden, the Liberal National Party defeated Labor by 63.2–36.8, a 2.5% swing to the LNP since the 2022 federal election.
Primary votes were 48.9% LNP (up 4.3%), 22.1% Labor (down 0.3%), 8.9% One Nation (up 0.3%), 7.4% Legalise Cannabis (new) and 6.2% Greens (down 4.5%).
Analyst Kevin Bonham said the average swing at an opposition-held seat at a byelection that is contested by both major parties is about 1% to the opposition.
The two party swing to Labor at Aston of 6.4% contrasts with the small swing to the LNP in Fadden.
Turnout at the Aston byelection was 85.6%, while in Fadden turnout is currently 67.5% and is likely to only make the low 70s.

UK byelections and Spanish election upcoming in next week

While the Conservatives won all three seats by large margins at the 2019 election, there has been a massive national swing to Labour since.
The Spanish election is next Sunday, and the right-wing parties (People’s and Vox) are expected to defeat the governing left-wing parties (Socialists and Sumar).

The government passed a major immigration law last year – so why is it trying to pass another one?

Retrieved on:

Giovedì, Luglio 13, 2023

The illegal immigration bill has generated endless controversy on its way to becoming law.

Key Points:

The illegal immigration bill has generated endless controversy on its way to becoming law.
You might remember a lot of debate only last year over a new immigration act.

Law one: a two-tier asylum system

The Nationality and Borders Act introduced a two-tier system that offered refugees different levels of protection depending on how they entered the UK.
And it set the stage for the controversial Rwanda plan by providing for offshore processing of asylum claims.

Law two: an outright ban

The illegal migration bill is the most extreme piece of immigration legislation to date, and amounts to a ban on asylum.
Under the proposed law, anyone who enters the UK irregularly (the majority of asylum seekers) will never have their asylum claims assessed.
Read more:
Nationality and Borders Act becomes law: five key changes explained

Why do we need both?

The government says the illegal migration bill is needed because the asylum system is (still) broken, citing the increase in small boat crossings since 2018.
Tighter security in recent years, as well as the pandemic, has made other clandestine routes (such as concealed in a lorry) more difficult.

Targeting Albanians

The government has claimed that Albanians and others from “well-established safe countries” are falsely claiming to be victims of trafficking in order to access support they are entitled to under the Modern Slavery Act.
But there is evidence that many Albanians flee due to blood feuds between families, for which the Albanian state offers little protection.
In a bid to deter Albanians from seeking asylum in the UK, the government signed an agreement with Albania to speed up the return of its citizens.

Performance politics

And what’s more, the Home Office doesn’t have the resources or, arguably, institutional competence to implement them.
Most importantly, both policies are built on a strategy of deterrence, which even the Home Office acknowledges doesn’t work.
Ultimately, both pieces of legislation are performance politics that have more to do with winning an election than solving policy problems.

Voice support slumps in Essential poll; LNP leads in Queensland

Retrieved on:

Martedì, Luglio 11, 2023

The last Essential Voice poll in June gave “yes” a 60–40 lead, in contrast to a 51–49 “no” lead from Resolve in a poll conducted at the same time.

Key Points:

The last Essential Voice poll in June gave “yes” a 60–40 lead, in contrast to a 51–49 “no” lead from Resolve in a poll conducted at the same time.
The trajectories of Resolve and Newspoll are similar, while Essential has been the most friendly pollster for “yes”.
While Essential still has “yes” ahead, there is now a clear down trend in “yes” support in this poll.

Other Essential results: Labor leads by 51–44

In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor led by 51–44 (52–42 last fortnight).
This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Essential since March.

Be sceptical of claims of existential crises for current opposition parties

But when the Coalition unexpectedly won the 2019 election, there were claims of an existential crisis for Labor.
Internationally, there were claims of an existential crisis for United Kingdom Labour after the Conservatives won a clear majority at the UK 2019 election, but Labour is leading in current UK national polls by about 20 points.
This is occurring despite the generational effects the CIS paper claims will damage the Coalition.

Last fortnight’s Essential poll

In last fortnight’s Essential poll, voters were asked to rate Albanese, Dutton and Greens leader Adam Bandt from 0 to 10.
Ratings of 0–3 were counted as negative, 4–6 as neutral and 7–10 as positive.
Relieving cost of living pressures had the highest score for not enough (75% not enough, 20% enough, 5% too much).

LNP leads in Queensland Freshwater poll

An April YouGov Queensland poll gave the LNP a 51–49 lead, although Resolve still had Labor ahead, but Resolve has skewed to Labor federally and in state polls since the May 2022 federal election.
Read more:
Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls
Labor has governed in Queensland since early 2015, but federally, Queensland is the most conservative state.
The Poll Bludger reported Sunday that “no” to the Voice led in this Queensland-only poll by 50–36 including undecided, or 58–42 excluding undecided.

KBRA Releases Research – U.S. CLO Manager Style Comparisons: June 2023 Update

Retrieved on:

Lunedì, Luglio 10, 2023

Banking, Professional Services, Finance, KBRA, Conservatism, Opportunism, CLO, Anchorage Capital Group, Research, Fortress Investment Group, KKR, College Hill, Providence, Rhode Island, Nuveen

KBRA releases research that examines the different strategies adopted by U.S. collateralized loan obligation (CLO) managers.

Key Points:

KBRA releases research that examines the different strategies adopted by U.S. collateralized loan obligation (CLO) managers.
An individual CLO manager’s style or approach to investing in a pool of leveraged loans can vary compared to its peers.
We made some simplified assumptions around the various CLO metric pairings and quadrants under which any given CLO manager’s transactions are classified.
Conservative managers are more convincingly conservative than opportunistic managers are convincingly opportunistic, and this distinction is greater than in December 2022.

New West Public Affairs launches dedicated communications unit

Retrieved on:

Mercoledì, Luglio 5, 2023

CALGARY, Alberta, July 05, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- New West Public Affairs today announced it is launching a dedicated communications offering designed to help clients across the country tell their stories to audiences that reach beyond the halls of government.

Key Points:

CALGARY, Alberta, July 05, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- New West Public Affairs today announced it is launching a dedicated communications offering designed to help clients across the country tell their stories to audiences that reach beyond the halls of government.
From message development and strategic communications planning to media relations and digital communications, New West is now poised to offer clients a full suite of communications services that will raise profiles, capture imaginations and influence decisionmakers.
“We are thrilled to launch this new service offering and provide even more value for New West clients,” said Monte Solberg, CEO of New West Public Affairs.
Rounding out the powerhouse communications team is Alysha Mohamed, Communications Consultant for New West.

Cricket's wicket ways: what the furore over a stumping tells us about Anglo-Australian relations (spoiler: they'll survive)

Retrieved on:

Martedì, Luglio 4, 2023

The already febrile sporting pages of the English press have gone into overdrive about Jonny Bairstow’s controversial dismissal.

Key Points:

The already febrile sporting pages of the English press have gone into overdrive about Jonny Bairstow’s controversial dismissal.
The reason this is not just cricket is that the political furore over the Ashes playing out in England expresses old and new elements of the Australia-UK relationship.
The old elements are that Anglo-Australian rivalries and tensions play out in the safety of social forms understood by both sides, in this case cricket.
On the Labor left, this has revived memories of the last time Australian and British security was so closely aligned.
Memories of the disaster at Singapore in 1942, or nuclear testing at Maralinga in the 1950s, don’t bring much comfort.
The Scots appear to be enjoying the moment and generally support two teams – Scotland, and anyone playing against England.
The Headingley crowd may still be smarting from the Bairstow incident, and confirmed in their views of how Australians play the game.

Why 'wokeness' has become the latest battlefront for white conservatives in America

Retrieved on:

Lunedì, Luglio 3, 2023

With a President DeSantis, there would be no more critical race theory.

Key Points:

With a President DeSantis, there would be no more critical race theory.
Across the country, Republican-led state legislatures are unleashing a tidal wave of laws intended to enforce white conservative mores on the broader population.
It’s not even past.” Zealous conservatives have banned Faulkner’s books from school curricula on multiple occasions for obscenity and blasphemy.
Today’s “war” is part of a much longer fight - one that has dominated America’s past, and continues to shape the possibilities of its future.

What is the “war on woke”?

The term “woke” can be either an insult or a marker of pride – it can shift depending on the context.
Both those broadly aligned with “woke” aims and those in bitter opposition to them appear to find it equally difficult to define the term.
As the journalist and author Michael Harriot has explained, the term “woke” emerged from the African American maxim “stay woke”.
That is, a call to stay aware of the lived reality of racism in the United States.

From civil war to civil rights

This was a cultural construction that would endure long after the Civil War.
In the 1960s, the civil rights movement began to challenge these discriminatory laws.
Conservatism was cohering into a new social movement, premised on the rejection of the advances of the civil rights movement.
Read more:
The American right has gone to war with 'woke capitalism' – here's what they get wrong

A new social movement is born

Generations of free marketers proudly repeat Reagan’s words.
Most significant of all was the mobilisation in churches, as a new, white, Christian evangelical movement discovered and embraced its power.
Reagan sought to identify himself with this conservative social mobilisation sweeping the country, against the Republican establishment of the day.
Conservative Christians also campaigned against depictions of Black oppression and assertions of non-white culture, sex education and anything that might challenge their carefully prescribed social coda.

The past is never dead

By being against “wokeness”, this movement is able to construct a coherence it otherwise lacks.
Devoid of a clear vision of what it stands for, this mobilisation (like other right-wing movements before it) is focused on opposition.
The past is never dead.

Despite indictment, Trump retains huge lead in Republican primary polls and narrowly leads Biden

Retrieved on:

Mercoledì, Giugno 21, 2023

Despite the indictment, he retains a huge lead in national polling to determine the 2024 Republican presidential candidate.

Key Points:

Despite the indictment, he retains a huge lead in national polling to determine the 2024 Republican presidential candidate.
Polls of early states will become more important as we approach these contests, but for now national polls are the best guide we have.
In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate of national Republican primary polls, Trump currently leads with 53.1%, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis far behind on 21.2% and nobody else over 6%.
Trump’s lead has only marginally declined from 53.5-20.8 over DeSantis in my last US politics article in late May.

Biden’s ratings have not improved since debt limit deal

In late May, President Joe Biden agreed to a debt limit deal with Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and the deal was passed by both chambers of Congress by June 1.
Biden’s ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate are currently 54.2% disapprove, 41.2% disapprove (net -12.9).
In my May US politics article before the debt limit deal was struck, his net approval was -10.4.
The failure of Biden’s ratings to improve after the debt limit deal suggests Republican rhetoric on the need for spending cuts in the lead-up to the debt crisis was effective, and that McCarthy could have pushed for deeper cuts than what occurred.
Bad news for Trump regarding the indictment (his national favourability ratings have fallen) may be compensated by Biden’s drop in approval ratings.

Boris Johnson resigns from UK parliament

Johnson knew he would be forced to a byelection, so he resigned preemptively.
As Sunak and Johnson are rivals, it’s very unlikely that Sunak will allow Johnson to return as a Conservative candidate.

Right and far-right are doing well in Europe

If this occurs, Spain will follow Italy last year as the second major European country to fall to the right.
In Germany, the centre-left Social Democrats formed a governing coalition with the Greens and pro-business Free Democrats after the September 2021 election.