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Labor slightly helped by Victorian and WA draft federal redistributions

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Domenica, Giugno 2, 2024

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All other WA seats will be held by their previous party, with the biggest change a 4.7-point lift in Labor’s Hasluck margin to 60.7–39.3.

Key Points:

All other WA seats will be held by their previous party, with the biggest change a 4.7-point lift in Labor’s Hasluck margin to 60.7–39.3.
At the 2022 federal election, there was a 10.6% two-party swing to Labor in WA, compared with a 3.7% national swing.
Historically, WA has been relatively weak for federal Labor, and Labor would be worried by the possibility of a significant swing back to the Coalition at the next federal election.
And in WA, Bullwinkel is notionally Labor, although WA could swing back to the Coalition.
The Victorian and WA redistributions are drafts, and are unlikely to be finalised for months.
We are also still waiting for a New South Wales draft proposal; NSW will lose a seat.

Morgan poll: Coalition’s best position since last election

In the national Morgan poll conducted May 20–26 from a sample of 1,488, the Coalition led by 51.5–48.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the May 13–19 poll.
This is the Coalition’s best position in this poll since the last election.
An estimate based on 2022 election preference flows would give Labor about a 51–49 lead, so respondent flows were weak for Labor.

Redbridge MRP poll: 52–48 to Labor

Overall, Labor led by 52–48, from primary votes of 36% Coalition, 32% Labor, 13% Greens and 19% for all Others; these figures are almost identical to the 2022 election results.
If this poll were replicated at an election, few seats would change hands, and Labor would retain government in minority or majority.

Further Resolve questions

I covered a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers on May 20. In further questions, respondents were told that the “government recently released its future gas strategy, which outlines its plans for gas in Australia for the next few decades”. By 60–15, voters supported the use of gas in Australia’s energy mix. There was strong support for various uses of gas.

Tasmanian EMRS poll: major parties down since election

A Tasmanian EMRS poll, conducted May 16–23 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 35% of the vote (down two since the March 23 election), Labor 28% (down one), the Greens 15% (up one), the Jacqui Lambie Network 7% (steady), independents 12% (up two) and others 3% (down one).
Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led new Labor leader Dean Winter by 40–32 as preferred premier (41–38 for Rockliff against former Labor leader Rebecca White in February).

Labour landslide likely at July 4 UK general election

First Large-Scale Mineral Exploration Program Underway on Bougainville since the 2001 Peace Accord between Papua New Guinea and Bougainville

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Giovedì, Maggio 2, 2024

This marks the ﬁrst undertaking of a large-scale mineral exploration program on Bougainville outside the special mining lease held by Bougainville Copper Ltd (Rio Tinto – CRA) since 1965.

Key Points:

This marks the ﬁrst undertaking of a large-scale mineral exploration program on Bougainville outside the special mining lease held by Bougainville Copper Ltd (Rio Tinto – CRA) since 1965.
The new exploration program is also historic because EL02, which is held by IRHL, was the ﬁrst valid license for metals exploration on Bougainville issued under the Autonomous Bougainville Government’s 2015 Mining Act.
Under the provisions of the Bougainville Peace Agreement, the Bougainville Mining Act is administered by the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG), independent of Papua New Guinea and its separate mining act.
EL02 is one of only two valid exploration licenses on Bougainville and the only one under active exploration.

Jacqui Lambie Network could win balance of power at Tasmanian election; Labor lead steady in federal polls

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Mercoledì, Febbraio 14, 2024

The Australia Institute, Coalition, The Eras Tour, News, Liberal National Party, EMRS, UAP, JLN, Lead, Disagreement, One Nation, House, Liberal, Jacqui Lambie Network, Federal, Poll Bludger, YouGov, MP

The election was called early owing to disagreements between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker.

Key Points:

The election was called early owing to disagreements between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker.
Tasmania uses the same five electorates for state and federal elections, with seven members to be elected per electorate, up from five previously.
The YouGov poll gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%.
However, the Liberal National Party is likely to win the October Queensland election, so even if Labor takes power in Tasmania, unified Labor government probably won’t last long.

Federal YouGov poll: 69% support tax changes but Albanese’s ratings drop

A national YouGov poll, conducted February 2–7 from a sample of 1,502, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged from the mid-January YouGov poll.
On the changes to the stage three tax cuts, 69% supported the changes while 31% supported the original stage three proposal.

Labor gains in Essential poll

In a national Essential poll, conducted February 7–11 from a sample of 1,148, Labor led by 50–46 including undecided (48–46 two weeks ago).
This is Labor’s largest lead in Essential since early October.
Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).

Labor down in a Redbridge poll

A national Redbridge poll, conducted January 30 to February 7 from a sample of 2,040, gave Labor a 51.2–48.8 lead, a 1.6-point gain for the Coalition since the last Redbridge poll in December.
Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up three), 33% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down three).
Despite the narrow Labor lead on voting intentions, Labor held a 32–28 lead on economic management, which is usually a relative strength for the Coalition.

Morgan and Dunkley byelection polls

Labor’s lead increased to 53–47 in last week’s Morgan poll that was conducted January 29 to February 4.
In this week’s Morgan poll, conducted February 5–11 from a sample of 1,699, Labor led by 52–48.
The federal byelection to replace the deceased Labor MP Peta Murphy will be held on March 2.
Eight candidates will contest the Dunkley byelection.
In other byelection news, the South Australian state byelection in Dunstan to replace former Liberal premier Steven Marshall will be held March 23.

US Democrats gain federal House seat at byelection

I covered the United States federal byelection for New York’s third congressional district for The Poll Bludger. Democrats easily gained from the Republicans. I also covered the latest presidential primaries that show both Donald Trump and Joe Biden cruising to their parties’ nominations.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Labor’s Newspoll lead unchanged since December as 62% support stage three changes

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Lunedì, Febbraio 5, 2024

A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in mid-December.

Key Points:

A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in mid-December.
Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (down one), 7% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (steady).
Anthony Albanese’s net approval dropped one point to -9, while Peter Dutton’s net approval was down four points to -13.
His net approval is still well below zero, and hasn’t recovered to its level before the Voice referendum defeat.

Essential poll: 48–46 to Labor

In last week’s federal Essential poll, conducted January 24–28 from a sample of 1,201, Labor led by 48–46 including undecided (49–46 in December).
Labor has led by one-to-three points in all Essential polls since late October.
Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady), 7% for all Others (down two) and 5% undecided (steady).
Analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor would have about a 53–47 lead in this poll by 2022 election preference flows.

Morgan poll and a second Queensland byelection

In last week’s federal Morgan poll, conducted January 22–28 from a sample of 1,688, Labor led by 50.5–49.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week.
Primary votes were 37.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 31% Labor (down 1.5), 13% Greens (up 0.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 0.5) and 13% for all Others (down one).
I covered the March 16 Queensland state byelection in Inala last fortnight.
A second Queensland byelection will also occur on March 16 after Ipswich West’s Labor member Jim Madden resigned to contest the Ipswich local government elections on March 16.

Biden wins 96% in South Carolina Democratic primary

At Saturday’s United States Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina, Joe Biden won 96.2% of the vote, Marianne Williamson 2.1% and Dean Phillips 1.7%.
This result makes it all but certain that Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee.
In the Republican presidential contest, Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley nationally by 73.6–17.2 in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate.
The next important contest is the February 24 Republican primary in South Carolina, Haley’s home state.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Danube Properties Presents OTTplay Awards 2023: Recognizing the Best in Indian OTT

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Venerdì, Novembre 3, 2023

Cultural diversity, Female, OTT, Life, HT Media, Darling, One Nation, Danube, Kinema Junpo Award for Best Film of the Year, Most, Partnership, The Trial, Aditi Rao Hydari, Film industry, Entertainment

At the prestigious OTTplay Awards 2023, an array of outstanding talents took a center stage.

Key Points:

At the prestigious OTTplay Awards 2023, an array of outstanding talents took a center stage.
OTTplay Awards celebrated excellence in digital content across 30+ categories, emphasizing on India's cultural diversity in digital entertainment.
Avinash Mudaliar, CEO and Co-founder of OTTplay shared his enthusiasm about the success of the OTTplay Awards 2023, stating, "This year's OTTplay Awards have truly exemplified the diversity and excellence within India's digital entertainment space.
OTTplay Awards 2023 set a new standard in Indian OTT industry excellence.

Danube Properties Presents OTTplay Awards 2023: Recognizing the Best in Indian OTT

Retrieved on:

Venerdì, Novembre 3, 2023

Cultural diversity, Female, OTT, Life, HT Media, Multimedia, Darling, One Nation, Danube, Kinema Junpo Award for Best Film of the Year, Most, Partnership, The Trial, Aditi Rao Hydari, Film industry, Entertainment

At the prestigious OTTplay Awards 2023, an array of outstanding talents took a center stage.

Key Points:

At the prestigious OTTplay Awards 2023, an array of outstanding talents took a center stage.
OTTplay Awards celebrated excellence in digital content across 30+ categories, emphasizing on India's cultural diversity in digital entertainment.
Avinash Mudaliar, CEO and Co-founder of OTTplay shared his enthusiasm about the success of the OTTplay Awards 2023, stating, "This year's OTTplay Awards have truly exemplified the diversity and excellence within India's digital entertainment space.
OTTplay Awards 2023 set a new standard in Indian OTT industry excellence.

Indigenous Australians supported Voice referendum by large margins; Labor retains large Newspoll lead

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Martedì, Ottobre 17, 2023

With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.

Key Points:

With 79% of enrolled voters counted nationally, “no” has won the Voice referendum by a 60.7–39.3 margin.
In Lingiari, where 40 of the population is Indigenous, “no” leads by a 56–44 margin.
The large wins for “no” in Lingiari and other seats with high Indigenous populations are caused by non-Indigenous people in those seats voting heavily “no”.
Most Labor seats have substantial support for right-wing parties, so this doesn’t mean “no” won Labor voters.
Dutton and Thorpe are negatively perceived for reasons other than the Voice, and Thorpe was opposing the Voice from the left.

Labor improved in pre-referendum Newspoll as Dutton sank

A Newspoll, conducted October 4–12 from a sample of 2,638, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since October 3–6.
Primary votes were 36% Labor (up two), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up one) and 11% for all Others (down two).

Essential poll: Albanese’s ratings steady, Dutton down

Albanese’s ratings were steady since September at 46% approve, 43% disapprove (net +3), while Dutton’s net approval dropped two points to -7.
Essential has a Voice question that had “no” ahead by 53–38, out from 49–43 in early October.

Victorian Resolve poll: Coalition gains but Labor still far ahead

While Resolve doesn’t give a two party estimate until near elections, I estimate this poll would give Labor a 57–43 lead, a three-point gain for the Coalition since August.
New Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a 38–19 lead over Liberal leader John Pesutto as preferred premier from the October sample of 553.

Liberal conservative alliance to replace authoritarian party in Poland

Voice support up in Essential poll, but it is still behind

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Martedì, Ottobre 3, 2023

This is the first time since June that “yes” has gained ground between two separate polls by the same pollster.

Key Points:

This is the first time since June that “yes” has gained ground between two separate polls by the same pollster.
The graph below has been updated with additional results from Freshwater and Morgan (see below) as well as Essential.
The Essential and Morgan polls are the best pollsters for “yes”, but it is still behind with these polls.

Labor recovers in Essential voting intentions

In Essential’s two party estimate that includes undecided, Labor led by 50–45, after reaching a low for this term of 49–45 last fortnight.
Primary votes were 33% Labor (up two), 32% Coalition (steady), 14% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (down two), 2% UAP (steady), 7% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (down one).
The gains for Labor and the Greens on primary votes suggest that respondent preferences were better for the Coalition and cost Labor a larger lead.

Freshwater poll: Labor only ahead by 51–49

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one) and 17% for all Others (steady).
The two most recent Freshwater polls have favoured the Coalition relative to other recent polls, with last week’s Newspoll giving Labor a 54–46 lead.
The Liberals led Labor by 38–29 on economic management and by 32–30 on cost of living.

Morgan poll has best result for ‘yes’ since August

A national Morgan poll, conducted September 18–24 from a sample of 1,511, gave “no” just a 44–39 lead.
While this is a reversal of the 46–36 “yes” lead in the previous Morgan Voice poll in May, it’s the best result for “yes” from any pollster since an early August Essential poll gave “no” a four-point lead.
This poll was conducted using online methods, whereas previous Morgan Voice polls used SMS.

Jacinta Allan replaces Daniel Andrews as Victorian Premier

Daniel Andrews resigned as Victorian Labor Premier and Member for Mulgrave on September 27.
Former deputy Premier Jacinta Allan was elected Labor leader and premier unopposed at a September 27 Labor caucus, and former Public Transport Minister Ben Carroll deputy premier.
Andrews became Victorian premier after winning the November 2014 state election.
In his nearly nine years in power, he did nothing to reform the Victorian upper house’s electoral system.

Labor and Albanese recover in Newspoll as Dutton falls, but the Voice's slump continues

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Lunedì, Settembre 25, 2023

A national Newspoll, conducted September 18–22 from a sample of 1,239, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago.

Key Points:

A national Newspoll, conducted September 18–22 from a sample of 1,239, gave Labor a 54–46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago.
While Labor’s primary vote improved at the Coalition’s expense, the drop for the Greens should have cost Labor preferences.
He returns to net positive approval after falling into net negative for the first time this term in the previous Newspoll.
While Labor and Albanese improved and Dutton fell, the Voice’s slump continued, with “no” now ahead by 56–36, out from a 53–38 “no” lead in early September.

Albanese records first net negative Newspoll approval as Voice support slumps further

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Lunedì, Settembre 4, 2023

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On Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 46% (up six) were dissatisfied and 45% (down six) were satisfied, for a net approval of -1, down 12 points.

Key Points:

On Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, 46% (up six) were dissatisfied and 45% (down six) were satisfied, for a net approval of -1, down 12 points.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s net approval improved two points to -11.
Here is the chart of all 2023 Voice polls by Newspoll, Resolve, Essential and Morgan that I first published in July.
Albanese’s Newspoll net approval of -1 is easily his worst this term.