Conservatism

The Michael Chong affair reveals the federal government's national security incompetence

Retrieved on:

Martedì, Maggio 9, 2023

One might presume this confers some obligation on the government to inform Canadians if their relations living abroad are threatened by a foreign state.

Key Points:

One might presume this confers some obligation on the government to inform Canadians if their relations living abroad are threatened by a foreign state.
Two years ago, Ottawa had intelligence indicating that relatives of Conservative MP Michael Chong, who were living in Hong Kong, might be targeted for reprisal by the Chinese government.
This was in retaliation for Chong sponsoring a parliamentary motion condemning Beijing for its treatment of the Uighur minority.

CSIS admonished

As a result, Chong was unaware of the threat to his family until the intelligence was leaked last week.
Trudeau has admonished CSIS for failing to inform the government properly.
He says he has now instructed Canada’s spy agency to bring any intelligence on threats to MPs to his attention.
How should this matter have been handled if the government did take its national security obligations seriously?

Regular meetings with CSIS director

The solicitor general was responsible for and accountable to Parliament for CSIS.
In those days, the CSIS director met regularly, if not weekly when the House of Commons was sitting, with the solicitor general, who was Liberal Herb Gray at the time.
These are the types of meetings in which intelligence like the alleged targeting of Chong should have been clearly shared with the minister — not buried in a memo circulating among national security officials, but rather in a verbal briefing between CSIS and its minister.

Oath of secrecy

He is the foreign affairs critic for the Official Opposition, a former minister of the Crown and a Privy Councillor.
Chong’s Privy Council oath of secrecy could have been invoked to ensure confidentiality.
Vincent Rigby, Trudeau’s national security adviser, retired in June 2021 and was not replaced until January 2022.

Too easy to blame CSIS

That means the position of National Security and Intelligence Advisor to the prime minister was a part-time gig for seven months.
It’s easy to blame CSIS in this episode.
But a serious national security culture comes from the top down, not from the intelligence agencies under the control of the federal government.

Easy Liberal wins likely in byelections in Robert's and Morrison's seats; support for rise in JobSeeker

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Martedì, Maggio 9, 2023

There has been recent speculation that former Liberal PM Scott Morrison will also soon retire, which would mean a byelection in his New South Wales seat of Cook.

Key Points:

There has been recent speculation that former Liberal PM Scott Morrison will also soon retire, which would mean a byelection in his New South Wales seat of Cook.
At the 2022 federal election, Robert won Fadden by a 60.6-39.4 margin over Labor, while Morrison won Cook by a 62.4-37.6 margin over Labor.
At the April 1 federal Aston byelection, Labor had a 6.4% swing in its favour to overturn a 52.8-47.2 Liberal margin at the 2022 election.

Pre-budget Essential poll: 53-41 to Labor including undecided

Primary votes were 33% Labor (down one), 32% Coalition (up one), 14% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (down one), 2% UAP (down one), 8% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (up one).
Despite the Coalition’s primary vote gain, Labor increased their two party lead.
That suggests respondent preference flows to Labor were stronger than previously.
By 52-22, voters supported allowing New Zealanders who have lived in Australia for at least four years to become Australian citizens.

Morgan poll: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

UK local elections were disappointing for Labour

I covered Thursday’s United Kingdom local government elections for The Poll Bludger.
The Conservatives lost over 1,000 councillors, but Labour only had a nine-point margin over the Conservatives on the BBC’s Projected National Share.

Incumbents easily re-elected at Tasmanian upper house elections

Every May two or three of Tasmania’s 15 upper house seats are up for election for six-year terms.
On Saturday there were elections in Rumney, Murchison and Launceston.
These results mean the status quo in the upper house is retained.

Local elections: Labour gains suggest the tide has turned in many marginal constituencies

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Venerdì, Maggio 5, 2023

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These votes are of course shaped by local issues but national influences are never far away.

Key Points:

These votes are of course shaped by local issues but national influences are never far away.
But its performance does not necessarily indicate that it is doing well enough to win outright at the next general election.
On the downside for Labour, it failed to take control of other target councils, namely Peterborough, Bolton, Worcester and Hartlepool.
Gains made by the Liberal Democrats might not equate to Labour success but they do indicate the potential for Conservative failure.

Can Rishi Sunak save the Tories? Voting behaviour over time suggests it will take more than personal appeal to win the next election

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Mercoledì, Maggio 3, 2023

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They use a simple rule of thumb: if they like a leader then they are inclined to vote for his or her party.

Key Points:

They use a simple rule of thumb: if they like a leader then they are inclined to vote for his or her party.
However, the effect of Conservative voting on PM popularity is stronger than the effect of PM popularity on voting.
We know this because the correlations voting has a longer impact on popularity than the other way round.
This means that if Rishi Sunak does succeed in delivering on his promises and becomes more popular this will help to boost the Conservative vote.

Local elections: what does a good night look like for Keir Starmer's Labour or Rishi Sunak's Conservatives?

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Martedì, Maggio 2, 2023

These are huge contests, covering 237 councils, of which 151 are holding all-out elections, with every seat up for grabs.

Key Points:

These are huge contests, covering 237 councils, of which 151 are holding all-out elections, with every seat up for grabs.
In the other 86, one-third of the seats are being fought.
The Conservatives have most to lose since the poll includes “shire” councils in rural locations, which are traditionally fertile Tory territory.

What does a good night look like?

Theresa May was prime minister and was battling to get her Brexit deal through parliament after losing her majority in an ill-fated election two years previously.
Starmer needs a swing the size of Tony Blair’s in 1997 to win an outright majority in the next general election.
For the Conservatives, keeping losses well below 700 seats would be a triumph of sorts, an indication Rishi Sunak is still in the game.

Which are the regions to look out for?

Labour could regain northern councils that had been lost to no overall control in places where the party has also lost parliamentary seats in recent years.
This could indicate a fight back in the areas that delivered such a devastating loss for Labour in the last general election.
Look out for Dacorum, West Berkshire and East Cambridgeshire councils which could all fall to Ed Davey’s party.

Will voter ID change things?

The Electoral Reform Society thinks it has been introduced to solve a problem of impersonation that does not exist.
Take up for voter authority certificates, available to those not holding appropriate ID, has been low.
That’s unless you think bins, burials, green spaces, housing, leisure facilities, libraries, planning, schools and social services are all trivial.

Why Justin Trudeau’s viral response to an anti-abortionist missed the mark

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Martedì, Aprile 25, 2023

A viral clip of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from his recent visit to the University of Manitoba circulated rapidly on social media.

Key Points:

A viral clip of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from his recent visit to the University of Manitoba circulated rapidly on social media.
National and international news outlets celebrated his response to a young, self-acclaimed People’s Party of Canada voter and anti-abortionist.
The prime minister was widely praised for his pro-choice response, which is understandable in a post-Roe v. Wade North America.

Abortion is a human right

While Trudeau’s support for reproductive rights is encouraging, using the example of rape to justify abortion care neglects abortion as a human right and vital health care required for many diverse reasons by diverse people, including and excluding rape.
All are valid and all necessitate access to free, safe and legal abortion.
As it stands now, the politics of abortion in North America distort real people’s experiences.

The scene in Canada

Following last year’s reversal by the United States Supreme Court of Roe v. Wade, which upheld the constitutional right to abortion, anti-choice advocates in Canada were emboldened.
Maxime Bernier, leader of the ultra-right People’s Party of Canada, has expressed anti-abortion sentiments, including calls to reopen the abortion debate in Canada.
The Abortion Rights Coalition Of Canada (ARCC), however, lists anti-choice MPs based on voting history, including aligning with “pro-life” statements, events and campaigns.
The On Canada Project, a community digital media platform focused on the experiences of marginalized Canadians, called Trudeau’s response “not great” on its Instagram page.

Justin Trudeau and NATO: The problem with Canadian defence isn’t cash, it's culture

Retrieved on:

Domenica, Aprile 23, 2023

It was quickly followed by a Washington Post revelation that Canada will never meet that target.

Key Points:

It was quickly followed by a Washington Post revelation that Canada will never meet that target.
The ongoing Discord security leak of classified files includes this admission by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to NATO officials.

Demands for Canada to step up

The Washington Post revelations have resulted in calls for Canada to step up its spending and meet the goals it agreed to in 2006 and again in 2014.
NATO agreed on it as a baseline, Canada made commitments to meet it and our allies are watching.

1. Culture concerns

The CAF is currently understaffed by about 16,000 personnel out of a total of 101,500 authorized positions.
Many of those missing personnel are at the middle-management level.

2. No strategic thinking

The public service is also part of the problem, lacking the experience to understand the interaction between war and diplomacy.
Few officials outside of the Department of National Defence (DND) understand the issues of war, nor are there many opportunities for them to gain such knowledge.

3. Complacent Canadians

But perhaps the greatest threat to Canada’s defence is Canadians themselves.
Canadians have long been assured by our geographical distance that there are few military threats facing the country.
Canadian politicians take their cues from a public that remains more concerned about domestic issues of inflation, health care and education than defence.

A non-issue for Canadians

And should the Conservatives succeed this government, they likely won’t do anything different — there is simply no domestic political reward for solving these problems.
There are enormous international political risks, however, for Canada to continue on this course.
Canadians were shocked by how fragile their health-care system was under the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sadly, only a major disaster can teach critical lessons about failing to address this problem.

Dominic Raab is right that the government has set a ‘dangerous precedent’ – but not for the reasons he thinks

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Venerdì, Aprile 21, 2023

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Dominic Raab has resigned as deputy prime minister and secretary of state for justice following an investigation of accusations that he bullied civil servants.

Key Points:

Dominic Raab has resigned as deputy prime minister and secretary of state for justice following an investigation of accusations that he bullied civil servants.
However, his resignation letter contained no apology and barely any admission of guilt.
And yet while the report cleared Raab of intentionally targeting staff, it found that he had acted “abrasively” towards civil servants and in a way that was intimidating.

Delay and denial

The investigation into Raab’s conduct was launched in November 2022 – more than five months ago.
Civil servants have been left with the message that their negative experiences at work come second to Raab’s political career.

Politics over principle

Discussion around Raab’s fate has been consistently tied to his loyalty to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and whether the Conservative party can survive another scandal.
But these factors should never have played a part in decisions around Raab’s professional conduct towards civil servants.

Collateral damage

This is not conducive to a healthy and efficient work environment.
And if their own experiences are not enough for these matters to be taken seriously, their victimisation has a negative impact for their employers too.
We also found that it is not only direct victims that suffer in a workplace where bullying takes place.

Dominic Raab's unapologetic resignation over bullying: he is the one setting a 'dangerous precedent'

Retrieved on:

Venerdì, Aprile 21, 2023

Dominic Raab has resigned as deputy prime minister and secretary of state for justice following an investigation of accusations that he bullied civil servants.

Key Points:

Dominic Raab has resigned as deputy prime minister and secretary of state for justice following an investigation of accusations that he bullied civil servants.
However, his resignation letter contained no apology and barely any admission of guilt.
And yet while the report cleared Raab of intentionally targeting staff, it found that he had acted “abrasively” towards civil servants and in a way that was intimidating.

Delay and denial

The investigation into Raab’s conduct was launched in November 2022 – more than five months ago.
Civil servants have been left with the message that their negative experiences at work come second to Raab’s political career.

Politics over principle

Discussion around Raab’s fate has been consistently tied to his loyalty to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and whether the Conservative party can survive another scandal.
But these factors should never have played a part in decisions around Raab’s professional conduct towards civil servants.

Collateral damage

This is not conducive to a healthy and efficient work environment.
And if their own experiences are not enough for these matters to be taken seriously, their victimisation has a negative impact for their employers too.
We also found that it is not only direct victims that suffer in a workplace where bullying takes place.

Voter ID: analysis shows Conservative MPs offering weak justification for law which is now in force

Retrieved on:

Lunedì, Aprile 17, 2023

This controversial new rule was brought in on the insistence that the “integrity of elections” needs to be protected.

Key Points:

This controversial new rule was brought in on the insistence that the “integrity of elections” needs to be protected.
But it has the potential to prevent many people from taking part in elections.
I found both Conservative and Labour MPs agreed that the number of reported voter fraud cases is small.

Increasing already high confidence?

Conservative MPs also often argued that voter ID is needed to strengthen public confidence in the electoral system.
In fact, more people agree there are sufficient safeguards in place to prevent electoral fraud than those who don’t.
Most people believe barriers to democratic participation for minority ethnic groups pose more of a problem than electoral fraud.

Voters pay the price

Unlike most countries where a government ID is required to vote, Great Britain has no widely adopted free or low-cost ID option.
Concerns have been raised that asking prospective voters to show photo ID to cast their ballot might make it harder for people from minority backgrounds and those who are less well-off to participate in elections.
This is interesting since Conservative MPs consistently portrayed voter ID as a benefit to all British voters and therefore positioned themselves as speaking for the electorate.
Voters can now apply for a free voter ID but a government-commissioned survey conducted in 2022 found that less than half of those without the correct ID said they would apply to get a free voter ID card.