Conservatism

• Polls have consistently shown that the incumbent mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, appears to be on track to win a third term in office at the upcoming mayoral elections on May 2.
• One poll we commissioned as part of our Polling London series in October 2023 put Khan ahead of his Conservative rival, Susan Hall, by 50 points to 25 (a 25-point lead for Khan).

Low satisfaction ratings

• Khan’s lead in the mayoral race is not built on high levels of satisfaction with his previous performance in the role.
• Khan’s rather lacklustre approval ratings make his lead appear rather more shallow.
• This could be due to Khan’s decision, which came into effect in August 2023, to expand the ultra low emissions zone (Ulez).
• This helps to explain why Khan is doing better in the mayoral race than his satisfaction ratings might suggest.

Policing, crime and personal safety

• A recent poll, commissioned by the Mile End Institute, where we are both based, and fielded by YouGov from February 12-19 2024, found that 52% of Londoners felt policing, crime and personal safety was one of the most important issues currently facing the city and its population.
• Meanwhile 46% opted for the provision of affordable quality homes and 37% for healthcare provision in the capital.
• The next most important issue, according to Londoners, was the affordability of public transport, which 25% of respondents highlighted.
• Londoners’ concerns about policing, crime and personal safety are likely, at least in part, to be a reflection of their low levels of trust in the Metropolitan police service.

Farah Hussain was a Labour Party local councillor in the London Borough of Redbridge 2014-2022. Elizabeth Simon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

• The tactics appear to have worked, with under-pressure ministers reportedly working on an update to the policy.
• We find the same in our new polling about the Welsh government – something that should be considered in the debate over the SFS.

A Europe-wide divide

• This is only the latest manifestation of “rural resentment” – beliefs that rural communities are economically, socially and politically marginalised.
• These sentiments have been associated with support for former US president Donald Trump and radical right parties across Europe.
• Political discourse in recent years has focused more on heavily Brexit-voting urban areas in the north of England.
• The real divide is political, but not party political.

Anti-Labour or anti-politics?

• In Wales, there are some differences but party supporters are still very happy to criticise governments run by parties they support.
• The most robust association we found in the cross-country study was between the perception of bias and trust in politics.
• This carries over into the Welsh study: lower trust in Welsh politics is associated with urban bias perceptions, particularly with stronger perceptions.

Risk or opportunity?

• For now, Welsh Labour has a huge poll lead over its rivals, which may cushion against electoral punishment even if it ploughs ahead with the SFS.
• What’s more, the risk of allowing perceptions of anti-rural bias to fester is that it brings the wider political system (including the Welsh devolved institutions) into disrepute.

Lawrence McKay receives funding from the British Academy to research urban-rural divides in Western Europe (grant number: PF22\220092)
Davide Vampa receives funding from the British Academy for the project “Exploring the Emergence of New Territorial Divides after Devolution: An Analysis of the Socio-Political Gap between Capital Cities and Peripheral Areas in Scotland and Wales” (grant number: SRG23\230264)

• Coming together under the “Fund Our Schools” banner, the rally organized by the Toronto & York Region Labour Council coincides with the vote on the 2024-2025 school budget at the Toronto District School Board (TDSB) headquarters at 5050 Yonge Street.
• Drawing attention to the real cause of the crisis in the schools, the Fund Our Schools campaign.
• It highlights that since 2018, inflation-adjusted funding had been cut by well over $1200 per student by the Conservative Government.
• These stories revealed a myriad of issues in schools, from lack of support for students with special needs, violence, and overwork.

• It is Ontario’s teachers that make our schools world class, and this budget does nothing to support the critical work that they do.
• But to be at our best, we need a government that makes education and students a priority.
• A government that makes the real investments necessary to foster healthier schools for students and teachers alike.
• Instead, Ontarians have the Ford Conservative government, which would rather use the budget to paper over its failings with cheap accounting tricks to hide its growing inflationary cuts to education.