Australian Labor Party (Western Australian Branch)

Grattan on Friday: In the second half of this term Albanese will need to concentrate on delivery

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Jeudi, septembre 28, 2023
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Daniel Andrews’ abrupt exit from the Victorian premiership this week is the latest development in a wider picture.

Key Points: 
  • Daniel Andrews’ abrupt exit from the Victorian premiership this week is the latest development in a wider picture.
  • Looking a year ahead, Labor will be struggling against the electoral tide in Queensland, where (on present polling) the Palaszczuk government could lose office.
  • Palaszczuk has said she is determined to stay at the helm for the election, but her leadership has been under pressure from her colleagues.
  • Of the COVID premiers, only Palaszczuk remains (ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr is also still there).
  • More generally, the (nearly completed) first half of the government’s first term has seen many policy announcements – the second half will need to emphasise delivery.
  • Later in the month, Albanese will be in Washington on a state visit, feted at the White House.
  • The Australian prime minister might privately muse that whatever problems he faces, they are way, way easier than those confronting his host.

Strong political leaders are electoral gold – but the trick is in them knowing when to stand down

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Lundi, août 28, 2023
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The photographs and their hostile treatment in The Daily Telegraph the next day by journalist Alan Reid were damaging.

Key Points: 
  • The photographs and their hostile treatment in The Daily Telegraph the next day by journalist Alan Reid were damaging.
  • Reid decried Calwell’s “night watch” as “a sad commentary on the decline in status of Labor’s parliamentary leadership”.
  • Leaders of the major parties invariably attempt to project strength, insight and control.
  • Just weeks before the 2007 election campaign, Labor’s Kevin Rudd unilaterally decreed that he alone would appoint his ministry, rather than the caucus.
  • In other words, the shift of power from party members and cabinets to leaders exercising unfettered authority from the top.
  • Yet he surrendered the WA premiership earlier this year, having led Labor to its most electorally dominant position in its history.
  • Mostly, though, leaders have to be endured long past their popular high-water mark, because, well, they’re irreplaceable.

'No' to the Voice takes lead in Essential poll; huge swing to Libs at WA state byelection

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Mercredi, août 9, 2023
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While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.

Key Points: 
  • While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.
  • Here is an updated graph that I first published in July of Voice polls from Essential, Newspoll, Resolve and Morgan (which hasn’t conducted a Voice poll since May).

Labor’s voting intention lead increases in Essential

    • In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor led by 52–42, an increased margin from a 50–45 lead last fortnight.
    • This term Essential polls have been better for the Greens than other polls.
    • This is the Greens’ equal lowest primary vote in Essential, tying 12% in March.

Morgan poll and seat entitlements

    • In this week’s Morgan weekly federal poll, conducted July 31 to August 6 from a sample of 1,391, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week.
    • After four successive moves to the Coalition had reduced Labor’s lead from 57–43 to 52–48, Labor has made two successive gains.
    • Read more:
      Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains

Labor holds WA Rockingham byelection easily despite huge swing to Libs

    • At the July 29 byelection for former WA Labor premier Mark McGowan’s seat of Rockingham, Labor defeated the Liberals by 65.2–34.8, a huge 22.5% swing to the Liberals since the 2021 WA election.
    • On the distribution of preferences, Edwards overtook the Liberals as minor candidates were excluded, and the seat finished as a contest between Labor and Edwards, with Labor winning by 61.4–38.6.
    • While this was a huge swing, there are extenuating circumstances for Labor.
    • Analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor’s two party percentage in Rockingham at this byelection exceeded Rockingham results at three general elections that Labor won with an incumbent MP.
    • The byelection suggests that Labor is still well ahead statewide against the Liberals, in contrast to a recent WA poll that gave the Liberals a 54–46 lead.

Labor maintains large Newspoll lead, but support for Voice slumps

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Lundi, juin 5, 2023
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A federal Newspoll, conducted May 31 to June 3 from a sample of 1,549, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from the last Newspoll, three weeks ago.

Key Points: 
  • A federal Newspoll, conducted May 31 to June 3 from a sample of 1,549, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from the last Newspoll, three weeks ago.
  • Primary votes were 38% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (steady), 12% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (down one) and 10% for all Others (steady).
  • Support for the Indigenous Voice to parliament slumped to a 46-43 lead for “yes” with 11% undecided, from a 53-39 lead in early April.

Essential poll: 52-43 to Labor including undecided

    • In last week’s Essential poll, conducted May 24-28 from a sample of 1,138, Labor led by 52-43 including undecided (53-42 the previous fortnight).
    • Primary votes were 34% Labor (down one), 31% Coalition (steady), 15% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (up one), 7% for all Others (down one) and 5% undecided (steady).

Freshwater poll only gives Labor a 52-48 lead

    • The Poll Bludger reported on May 22 that a Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted May 15-17 from a sample of 1,005, gave Labor a 52-48 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since December.
    • Primary votes were 37% Coalition (steady), 34% Labor (down three), 12% Greens (steady) and 17% for all Others (up three).
    • An April Freshwater poll had given “yes” an overall 56-44 lead.
    • A Painted Dog WA poll for The West Australian gave Albanese a net +23 approval while Dutton was at net -32.

Opposition to Voice drops in Morgan poll

    • A Morgan SMS poll, conducted May 26-29 from a sample of 1,833, had support for an Indigenous Voice to parliament at 46% (steady since mid-April), opposition at 36% (down three) and 18% undecided (up three).
    • Excluding undecided, “yes” led by 56-44, a two-point gain for “yes”.
    • Morgan’s weekly voting intentions poll gave Labor a 55.5-44.5 lead last week, unchanged on the previous week but a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago.

WA Premier Mark McGowan resigns

    • Labor Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan announced his resignation as premier and member for Rockingham last Monday.
    • At the March 2021 WA state election, McGowan led Labor to the biggest landslide win in Australian state or federal political history.
    • They won 53 of the 59 lower house seats and 22 of the 36 upper house seats – the first WA Labor upper house majority.

US debt limit deal passes Congress

    • I covered the passage of the US debt limit deal between President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy through Congress last week for The Poll Bludger.
    • My tactical analysis of the deal was harsh on McCarthy, saying he was more like a pussycat than a tiger.

Morgan Victorian poll: 61.5-38.5 to Labor

    • A Victorian SMS Morgan state poll, conducted May 17-22 from a sample of 2,095, gave Labor a 61.5-38.5 lead over the Coalition (55.0-45.0 at the November 2022 election).
    • Primary votes were 42% Labor, 28.5% Coalition, 12.5% Greens and 17% for all Others.
    • By 52.5-47.5 voters approved of Labor Premier Daniel Andrews’ performance (57.5-42.5 in a November Morgan poll).
    • Respondents were asked why they approved or disapproved, with many who disapproved of Pesutto citing his handling of the Moira Deeming affair.

NSW Resolve poll: Labor honeymoon after election win

    • Two party estimates are not generally provided by Resolve, but Labor is far ahead.
    • Incumbent Chris Minns led new Liberal leader Mark Speakman as preferred premier by 42-12.

Tasmanian EMRS poll: Liberals slump but Labor doesn’t benefit

    • A Tasmanian state EMRS poll, conducted May 15-19 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 36% of the vote (down six since February), Labor 31% (up one), the Greens 15% (up two) and all Others 18% (up three).
    • Tasmania uses a proportional system for its lower house, so a two party estimate is not applicable.