Ukraine war: US$60 billion in US military aid a major morale boost but no certain path to victory
The bill is still subject to Senate approval and then needs to be signed into law by the US president, Joe Biden.
- The bill is still subject to Senate approval and then needs to be signed into law by the US president, Joe Biden.
- But given the Senate’s previous approval of a similar measure and Biden’s vehemence of the need to support Ukraine, this should be a formality.
- Together with the morale boost for troops, this means that improvements in the situation on the front are likely – even before new US supplies will arrive.
Political will
- It is above all one of political will.
- The months-long delay in the US Congress was primarily an issue of domestic political posturing in a presidential election year.
- While their influence on funding decisions is much more limited, they could certainly create significant problems in Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations.
Economic capacity
- There is some confidence that production capacity in the US and Europe, as well as in Ukraine, will significantly increase as of 2025.
- But even in an optimistic scenario of sustained investments in the defence industrial base of the collective west and increasing Russian economic and logistical difficulties to sustain its defence sector, a gamechanging shift in the balance of power is unlikely in the near future.
Russia holds the initiative, for now
- It also enjoys air superiority in light of depleted Ukrainian air defence systems, and has the operational momentum on the battlefield.
- If anything, Russia will now double down on its current offensive pushes.
- Given the continuing rhetoric of victory in Moscow and Kyiv, another forever-war might just have become more sustainable – for now.
Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU's Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.