'No' to the Voice takes lead in Essential poll; huge swing to Libs at WA state byelection

While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.

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The ConversationThe Conversation
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https://theconversation.com/no-to-the-voice-takes-lead-in-essential-poll-huge-swing-to-libs-at-wa-state-byelection-210685https://theconversation.com/no-to-the-voice-takes-lead-in-essential-poll-huge-swing-to-libs-at-wa-state-byelection-210685
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Mercredi, août 9, 2023
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Tags: 
House, Housing, One Nation, Poll Bludger, Coalition, McGowan, Tobacco, Government, Human voice, Indigenous Voice to Parliament, Intention, Metro, Representative, UAP, Sport, Redbridge, Australian Electoral Commission, MP, Liberal, Australian Labor Party (Western Australian Branch), News, Nationals, Drinking establishment, Essential, NSW, Newspoll, Labour
Geotags: 
NEW SOUTH WALES, WA, ROCKINGHAM, WESTERN AUSTRALIA, VICTORIA, MORGAN
Résumé
Key Points: 
  • While Newspoll and Resolve polls had given “no” a lead in June, this is the first time “no” has led in Essential.
  • Here is an updated graph that I first published in July of Voice polls from Essential, Newspoll, Resolve and Morgan (which hasn’t conducted a Voice poll since May).

Labor’s voting intention lead increases in Essential

    • In Essential’s two party measure that includes undecided, Labor led by 52–42, an increased margin from a 50–45 lead last fortnight.
    • This term Essential polls have been better for the Greens than other polls.
    • This is the Greens’ equal lowest primary vote in Essential, tying 12% in March.

Morgan poll and seat entitlements

    • In this week’s Morgan weekly federal poll, conducted July 31 to August 6 from a sample of 1,391, Labor led by 53.5–46.5, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week.
    • After four successive moves to the Coalition had reduced Labor’s lead from 57–43 to 52–48, Labor has made two successive gains.
    • Read more:
      Woeful Victorian poll for state Coalition; Victoria and NSW to lose federal seats as WA gains

Labor holds WA Rockingham byelection easily despite huge swing to Libs

    • At the July 29 byelection for former WA Labor premier Mark McGowan’s seat of Rockingham, Labor defeated the Liberals by 65.2–34.8, a huge 22.5% swing to the Liberals since the 2021 WA election.
    • On the distribution of preferences, Edwards overtook the Liberals as minor candidates were excluded, and the seat finished as a contest between Labor and Edwards, with Labor winning by 61.4–38.6.
    • While this was a huge swing, there are extenuating circumstances for Labor.
    • Analyst Kevin Bonham said Labor’s two party percentage in Rockingham at this byelection exceeded Rockingham results at three general elections that Labor won with an incumbent MP.
    • The byelection suggests that Labor is still well ahead statewide against the Liberals, in contrast to a recent WA poll that gave the Liberals a 54–46 lead.
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