The Economic Journal

Mutual funds and safe government bonds: do returns matter?

Retrieved on:

Jeudi, avril 25, 2024

ACT, Safe Haven, Research Papers in Economics, Flight, Policy, B.3, ICAPM, RT, Journal of International Economics, Krishnamurti, Business, CIP, International, Observation, P25, Safety, A23, Benchmarking, B.2, FX, Paper, TSD, Environment, Journal of Financial Economics, Bogdanov, Federal, Website, United, A14, Total, The Economic Journal, Eurozone, Face, G11, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Interest rate parity, History, WD, Investment, Liquidity premium, Politics, OLS, Statistics, G15, Caballero, PDF, Classification, ECB, Foreign exchange market, AC, P99, Federal funds, Froot, Lethargy, Social science, Interest, JEL, Bias, Journal, Research, Journal of Economic Literature, The Journal of Finance, E.3, Literature, Federal Reserve, Parity, European Central Bank, AA, Annual Review, Growth, Bank of England, FRED, S&P, Injection, Risk, Elasticity, Government, G12, Finance, BIS, S1, JL, E.1, Money, Depreciation, Asset, Treasury, Federal Reserve Economic Data, A11, A10, R2, Section 4, UMP, A4, Boj, Section 3, Accounting, SJ, Fed, Mutual fund, Lustig, University of Lausanne, Section 2, P75, Foreign-exchange reserves of India, Assets under management, A19, GBP, FE, American Economic Review, A22, E.5, A3, A21, Flight-to-liquidity, Aggregate demand, G23, WT, USD, Autocorrelation, CAD, UIP, Currency, XR, Quarterly Journal, Appendix H, Capital, P95, A6, Zhu, University, B.1, P50, CHF, Transmission, Swings, Estate (law), EUR, Bank for International Settlements, JPY, E.4, Central bank, Multicollinearity, Bank, Fixed effects model, Reproduction, CAP, The Atlanta Jewish Times, VIX, Data, Om, Lobster

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Dominant currency pricing in international trade of services

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Jeudi, avril 25, 2024

SF1, Goldberg, LCP, Statistics, Research Papers in Economics, VCP, Place of birth, Postal, A.4, Journal of International Economics, Business, International, ISIC, Data collection, Heritage, Macroeconomics, Banco de Portugal, Computer, Tech, Prevalence, MCI, Agriculture, Audiovisual, European Economic Association, CNY, Journal of Monetary Economics, Pauwels, Insurance, Paper, Corsetti, Laurent, Environment, R2, Portuguese Economic Journal, Website, Table, Working paper, VB, Public opinion, World Bank, Collection, Travel, Transport, Science, PII, International economics, PDF, ECB, Foreign exchange market, Policy, Angelo Bacchetta, Social science, Labour economics, Communication, Journal, Research, Classification, A.5, Literature, DCP, European Central Bank, Mining, Export, Equation, Monetary economics, Section 5, Practice of law, Elasticity, ISO, COVID-19, BIS, Electricity, Automation, The Economic Journal, Chung, Employment, A.2, Telecommunications, International Monetary Fund, Tourism, UTC+01:00, Section 4, IUSD, Health care, F14, Database, Section 3, PCP, International finance, NIPE, Annual report, Note, Section 2, Conference, CPI, Central bank, SH42, Incidence, FE, American Economic Review, SF3, Exercise, Test, Justice, Forestry, SK22, Quarterly Journal, GDP, Central Statistics Office (India), Green, SG1, B.1, SF, Swings, Payment, IES, A.6, JPY, Colum, Bank, Reproduction, World Trade Organization, IMF, SF2, F31, Geography, Data, SF4, Cryptocurrency

Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
We analyze, for the first time, how firms choose the currency in which they price transactions
in international trade of services and investigate, using direct evidence, whether the US dollar
(USD) plays a dominant role in services trade.
JEL: F14, F31, F41
Keywords: dominant currency paradigm, international trade, services.
Related research has
shown that the US dollar (USD) exchange rate is a major source of swings in
global trade in goods?a ?dominant currency pricing? (DCP) phenomenon?since
most goods traded internationally are invoiced and sticky in USD.
Yet it is also key to look at dominant currency pricing in international trade
in services for several reasons.
First, global trade in services is big?accounting for
about a quarter of global gross trade flows and for around 40% in terms of valueadded trade.
Third, and relatedly, the
future of globalisation might be in trade in intermediate services?as progress with
digitech lowers technological barriers to such trade across borders.
But perhaps the main reason is that trade in services is conceptually different
from trade in goods.
Our paper is the first, to our best knowledge, that analyzes how firms choose
the currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and
that examines whether dominant currency pricing differs between trade in goods
and services using direct evidence? hitherto unavailable?on patterns of currency
choices in international transactions in services compared to goods.
Work on dominant currency pricing has
almost exclusively focused on trade in goods.
One reason is that data on patterns
in invoicing currency for trade in services are ?virtually nonexistent? (Adler et al.
Yet it is important to look at dominant currency pricing in international trade
in services for several reasons.
Using the exporter?s (or producer) currency in exports is known in the literature as producer
currency pricing (PCP), while using the importer?s currency is known as local currency pricing (LCP)
and using a third currency is known as vehicle currency pricing (VCP).
Our paper is the first, to our best knowledge, that analyzes how firms choose the
currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and that
examines whether dominant currency pricing differs between international trade in
goods and services using direct evidence ? hitherto unavailable ? on patterns of
currency choices in international transactions in services compared to goods.
First,
we rule out compositional effects, that is that differences in the use of currencies
reflect differences in trade partners in services vs. goods trade.
Both in extra-EU and intra-EU trade, the EUR is the
most widely used currency, be it on the export or import side.
Based
on the framework, we stress which factors should determine currency choices in
international trade, and to what extent one should expect differences between
services trade and goods trade.
Second, it can price in the importer?s currency
(local currency pricing, LCP).4 Third, it can use a third currency, say currency
v (vehicle currency pricing, VCP).
That is,
the currency choice problem is equivalent to determining the currency in which the
desired price is least volatile.
(2022)
provide systematic empirical evidence ? firm size and exposure to foreign currencies
in imported inputs ? should also shape currency choices in services trade.
Dominant currency pricing in USD ? services vs. goods trade
Having established that currency choice in international trade of services is an
active firm-level decision as well as the determinants of this decision, we now
8.
Services and goods exports: prevalence of different pricing strategies (percent)
Notes: The table shows the shares (in value terms) of different pricing strategies: producer currency
pricing (PCP), local currency pricing (LCP) and vehicle currency pricing (VCP).
To make comparisons with goods trade, we rely on Eurostat?s
macro data on international trade in goods by invoivcing currency.
If intra-EU trade is more important in services than
in goods trade, this could hence be an explanation for the lower prevalence of the
USD in services trade.
We showed
that while the USD is also extensively used as a vehicle currency in services trade, its
prevalence is systematically lower than in goods trade.
Hence for all travel services exports
the invoicing currency is the EUR; for travel imports it is the currency of the
destination of travel (i.e.
Also for these
ECB Working Paper Series No 2932

33

services it seems plausible that trade does not take place vis-?-vis all counterparts
in each currency.
Figure B.2: Share of international trade in services in global GDP broken down by type (%)
Notes: Authors? calculations using World Bank and World Trade Organization data.
An earlier version of this paper circulated under the title ?Currency choices and the role of the
U.S. dollar in international services trade?.

Why did the import intensity of GDP decline decline in 2023?

Retrieved on:

Jeudi, avril 25, 2024

The Economic Journal, American Economic Journal, Growth, IAD, Rotation, Weakness, ECB, Real, COVID-19, Travel, GDP

We show this is mainly due to the composition of GDP growth following a period characterised by weak exports and consumption.

Key Points:

We show this is mainly due to the composition of GDP growth following a period characterised by weak exports and consumption.
Destocking also had an important role in the decline, as well as the shift in consumption from goods to services, which are less import intensive.

Monetary asmmetries without (and with) price stickiness

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Vendredi, avril 19, 2024

Online, University, Public Security Section 9, Employment, Calibration, Small, Equity, Volume Ten, Research Papers in Economics, Policy, A.4, Communication, Crisis, Mass, Silvana Tenreyro, Business, Shock, Intuition, Business cycle, TFP, Volume, European Economic Review, Marginal value, SME, NBER, Forecasting, Depression, 3rd millennium, European Economic Association, Conceptual model, Journal of Monetary Economics, Insurance, Harmonization, Great Depression, CES, Economic Inquiry, Paper, Environment, Political economy, Journal of Financial Economics, MIT, University of York, COVID-19, Behavior, Review of Economic Dynamics, Rigid transformation, Website, Access to finance, Accounting, Working paper, Probability, Total, Appendix, Section 8, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Zero lower bound, Curve, Chapter, Cost, Nominal, Journal of Political Economy, Euro, PDF, ECB, Unemployment, Hoarding, STAT, Economic Policy (journal), Household, Canadian International Council, Social science, Government, Federal Reserve Bank, JEL, Journal, Textbook, Missing, Food, Private sector, A.5, Asymmetric, The Journal of Finance, Credit, Speech, Princeton University Press, Literature, NK, European Central Bank, Growth, Labour, Monetary economics, Loss aversion, Financial intermediary, Injection, Elasticity, Inventory, Subprime lending, Ben Bernanke, Finance, BIS, Phillips curve, International Economic Review, Money, London School of Economics, Marginal product of labor, Pruning, Marginal product, The Economic Journal, Rate, Aswath Damodaran, Risk, OECD, Competition (economics), Section 4, MIT Press, Consumption, Bond, Section 3, Yield curve, Loanable funds, Habit, Cobb–Douglas production function, Economy, Aarhus University, Financial economics, Section 2, Conference, Central bank, Chapter Two, Monetary policy, Capital, Hartman–Grobman theorem, CEPR, Framework, American Economic Review, Capital Markets Union, ZLB, Exercise, Liquidity, Interest, Intensive word form, Workshop, European Commission, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Population growth, B1, Response, Quarterly Journal, Community business development corporation, GDP, E31, Control, Journal of Economic Theory, Christian Social Union (UK), T2M, Hamper, Data, American Economic Journal, Aggregate, Konstantinidis, B.1, A.9, A.6, Remuneration, Civil service commission, EUR, Uncertainty, Motivation, A.7, Bank, GFC, Section 13, Motion, Reproduction, IMF, Staggers Rail Act, Abstract, Tale, Handbook, Asymmetry, Stanford University, Communications satellite

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Isabel Schnabel: The future of inflation (forecast) targeting

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Jeudi, avril 18, 2024

Reproduction, Exercise, Finance, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Calibration, Frankfurt, Empirical evidence, American Economic Association, Great Moderation, Interest, Inflation, Norges Bank, Policy, Bank, The Economic Journal, Speech, Employment, ECB, Risk, University of Chicago Press, Communication, Sveriges Riksbank, Debate, OECD, European Economic Review, Watcher, Economic Policy (journal), Goethe University Frankfurt, Federal Reserve Bank, Depression, Christian Social Union (UK), Climate change, Projection, IPhone, Intelligence, Agriculture, Bias, Journal, Research, Disinflation, Harvard Business School, University, Food, Business cycle, Bank of England, European Central Bank, The, American Economic Journal, Uncertainty, Attention, Finance Secretary (India), Conference, Forecasting, Growth, Rotation, Environment, Reserve Bank, Federal, COVID-19, Washington, D.C., Metal, HICP, Federal Reserve, Working paper, American Economic Review, Cryptocurrency

Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.

Key Points:

Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.
The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers.

A new measure of firm-level competition: an application to euro area banks

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Jeudi, avril 18, 2024

Glass, RPD, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Goldberg, Employment, Lead, Competition, SCP, Research Papers in Economics, TCF, Intuition, Laboratory, Euromoney, Bank of Canada, Calendar, International political economy, Manufacturing, Oxford Economic Papers, Harvard University Press, Paper, Linearity, R2, Environment, Delicatessen, System, Website, Panzar, Working paper, World Bank, Elzinga, Friends, Madiga, CPB, Investment, Lerner index, Statistics, Croatian National Bank, PDF, Elsevier, ECB, Industrial organization, Policy, Social science, JEL, Operations research, Internet, Journal, Research, Literature, European Central Bank, Journal of Economic Surveys, MRP, Commercial, Section 5, Financial intermediary, Ministry of Social Affairs, Elasticity, National bank, Government, Developed country, Cell, Tarazi, Wealth, Publishing, Springer Nature, Prudential, Marketing, Law, The Economic Journal, Lerner, L16, Business economics, OECD, International Monetary Fund, Section 4, Database, Section 3, Krieger, EMU, Section 2, Pressure, Central bank, Economics Letters, Bank, Jorgenson, Character, Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe, Life, EDS, American Economic Review, K2, Appendix, Applied economics, CEE, Palgrave Macmillan, Livret A, Bell Labs, GDP, Part, Country, Public policy, De Economist, Management, Publication, Motivation, Cooperative, Reproduction, IMF, Edward Elgar Publishing, Housing, Handbook, G21, Real estate

Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
This paper extends Boone (2008) by introducing a competition measure at the individual
firm level rather than for an entire market segment.
We apply this extended Boone indicator to individual bank-level competition
in the loan market in the four largest euro area countries and Austria.
Our new measure of firm-level competition enriches and complements
other competition measures and provides a promising starting point for future market
power analyses.
The only measure among non-structural measures that is based on the
concept of competition as a process of rivalry is the Boone (2008) indicator.
We introduce
a new performance measure of competition by extending the Boone indicator to the
individual firm level.
Introduction
The ability to reliably measure competition is valuable to researchers, analysts, and
policymakers, especially antitrust authorities, financial supervisors, and central banks.
One broad
category of indicators often used to measure competition are structural competition
measures, such as static concentration measures, and dynamic measures, e.g., entry and
exit rates.
Out of these measures, the only measure based on the
concept of competition as a process of rivalry is the Boone indicator.
This study introduces a new performance measure of competition by extending the
Boone indicator to the individual firm level.
It thus measures the
increase in profits in percent of one percentage point increase in efficiency, with marginal
costs as measure of efficiency.
We extend the theoretical
underpinning of the measurement of competition for the entire market of Boone (2008) by
a new measure of individual firm-level competition.
A concern of the literature is the gap
between the practical application and the theoretical framework of Boone (2008).
We introduce within the same theoretical
framework a new measure of competition on firm level, the MRP.
Our new
measure significantly augments the antitrust evaluative framework by shedding light on
whether a merger results in a less competitive market.
Our novel indicator focuses on
firms? incentives to enhance their relative efficiency, as manifested in the elasticity
between relative profits and efficiency.
However, an inefficient firm that is foreclosed could be more
competitive than the larger efficient firm that relies on its scale economies.
Our new metric of competition unveils
banks? ability to influence their profitability in the short term by cutting costs relative to
their peers.
The new MRP indicator provides the ability to assess the impact
of individual banks? competitiveness on their interest rate-setting behaviour in loan
markets.
Incorporating this information promises a more refined understanding of the impact and
timing of monetary policy rates changes on the real economy.
Section 3 introduces within the Boone
(2008) theoretical framework our new measure of individual firm-level competition,
including the interpretation of the MRP.
Section 4 provides an application of our new
ECB Working Paper Series No 2925
6

individual firm-level competition measure to the loan market.
The StructureConduct-Performance paradigm (SCP) provides a traditional framework in the field of
industrial organization for analysing competition behaviour in markets.
Concentrated
markets ease the possibilities to collude implicitly or explicitly and therefore concentrated
markets result in higher prices and profits.
For example, a tougher competition
setup may lead to a reallocation of market shares, potentially forcing some firms to exit
the market.
This approach gives firms? strategic behaviour
central stage and focuses on the strategic interaction on prices and quantities, known as
conjectural variation.
Another measure from
this strand of literature is the H-statistic developed by Panzar and Rosse (1987).
The only competition measure from this performance literature where competition is the
outcome from a process of rivalry is the Boone indicator.
A continuous and monotonically increasing relationship exists between
RPD and the level of competition if firms are ranked by decreasing efficiency.
(2013) compare the Boone indicator with the price-cost margin
and conclude that the profit elasticity is a more reliable measure of competition.
The high
elasticity of profits to efficiency unequivocally indicates that the high market shares and
therefore high profits are due to high efficiency.
A firm that quickly passes changes to the input prices is seen as a price
taker with little market power.
Indicators of competition tend to measure different phenomenon and may provide
conflicting messages, as reported for European banking by Carbo et al.
Application 2: Test the ?quiet life? and related market structure hypotheses using the
MRP as competition or market structure measure.
Data
Our application to individual bank-level competition in the euro area loan market uses
balance sheet and income statement data from the Moody?s Analytics BankFocus for the
calendar years 2013-2020.
As such, most publications
on competition in the euro area includes the largest four member states.
Due to these restrictions the database was reduced to an unbalanced panel of up to 1862
banks (depending on the year) from five euro area countries.
Application 1: Measure bank competition using MRP
Looking at the distribution of the MRP for individual banks (Fig.
A similar finding for the four largest euro area countries as a group is
reported in Carbo et al.
Application 2: Test of market structure hypotheses using MRP
Our new measure of individual-bank competition can be used to test market structure
theories.
Euro area banks? market power,
lending channel and stability: the effects of negative policy rates, European Central Bank
Working Paper, 2790 (February).
A
new approach to measuring competition in the loan markets of the euro area, Applied
Economics, 43 (23), 3155?3167.
Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area, Applied
Economics, 45 (11), 1359?1380.

Transactional demand for central bank digital currency

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Jeudi, avril 18, 2024

POS, Learning, CB, E41, Calibration, Financial regulation, Interest, ATM, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Journal of Macroeconomics, Sensitivity, Diffusion, ITunes, Bank of Canada, P2P, Safety, NBER, Benchmarking, Prevalence, SPACE, Bernoulli, Journal of Monetary Economics, E42, Paper, European Parliamentary Research Service, Apollo, Environment, Political economy, COVID-19, Review of Economic Dynamics, Abramov, Loss, Working paper, Choice, Collection, Probability, Dowd, Castrén, Face, Noise, History, Restaurant, Journal of Political Economy, ECB, Policy, Diary, Model, Utility, Clutch (eggs), Canadian International Council, Journal of Financial Stability, JEL, Digital, Bias, Journal, Research, Classification, CBDC, SARS-CoV-2, ECMI, Credit, Odds ratio, Literature, European Central Bank, Mises Institute, Monetary economics, Section 5, Occupation, E47, Financial intermediary, Government, Supermarket, Friction, Finance, BIS, Love, Bart, The Economic Journal, Education, Risk, Section 4, Privacy, Section 3, Appetite, App Store (iOS/iPadOS), Human, DNB, International finance, Section 2, Leonhard Euler, Payment, Attention, Central bank, Consumer, EPRS, Habit, American Economic Review, Confidence interval, FCO, Central bank digital currency, Exercise, Letizia, Applied economics, Digital currency, Sale, Business cycle, Amazon, Community business development corporation, Control, Chart, Proxy, American Economic Journal, LN, Bank, Fintech, IMF, Analysis, Aggregation, Cryptocurrency

Key Points:

US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes

Retrieved on:

Mardi, avril 2, 2024

Tao, Research Papers in Economics, Excess, American Economic Journal, Doan, Policy, RT, Interpolation, Economic growth, Absorption, Business, E32, Low, Browning, European Economic Review, UST, NBER, Forecasting, Macroeconomics, European Economic Association, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, TVAR, Oxford University Press, Time series, Economic Inquiry, Paper, Linearity, Joshua Angrist, Nobuhiro, Environment, Political economy, Journal of Financial Economics, Rated R, R2, Website, Emi, Energy economics, Probability, Medical classification, Eurozone, Sigismund, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Zero lower bound, History, Nature, Chapter, ZT, Journal of Political Economy, Bocconi University, OLS, Statistics, University of California, Irvine, PDF, Classification, ECB, XS, ITP, Impact, Estimation, DGP, Mark Thoma, Social science, Elsevier, JEL, Cambridge University Press, Real, M1, Research, Textbook, Private sector, FED, Credit, UTT, Literature, Federal Reserve, Knotek, Evelyn Regner, Table, European Central Bank, Chow, FRED, Monetary economics, Wald, Ben Bernanke, Premium, P500, BIS, EWMA, International Economic Review, Federal funds rate, Money, Treasury, C32, The Economic Journal, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Employment, Risk, FFR, Suggestion, FOMC, Monte Carlo method, Sigmoid, VAR, Database, Projection, Ascari, The Journal of Finance, Yield curve, United States Treasury security, Economy, Fed, Figure, NFCI, Financial economics, EXP, Freedom, Central bank, PCE, Monetary policy, American Economic Review, Exercise, Interest, Samuel, URR, Rigidity, Business cycle, XT, Landing slot, Chap, Daron Acemoglu, Markov, Blue chip, Kuttner, Response, Quarterly Journal, YT, Channel, GDP, Standard, Effect, Federal, Cost, Christian Social Union (UK), Journal of Econometrics, Comm, Mark Gertler, Use, Economic statistics, IW, Bank for International Settlements, Finance Secretary (India), UC, Bank, Reproduction, Section, News, Housing, Data, Food industry

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Piero Cipollone: Preserving people’s freedom to use a public means of payment: insights into the digital euro preparation phase

Retrieved on:

Jeudi, février 15, 2024

Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap rates, which we assume span core inflation.

Key Points:

Our approach relies on a term structure model of traded headline inflation-linked swap rates, which we assume span core inflation.
The model provides estimates of market-based expectations for core inflation, as well as core inflation risk premia, at daily frequency, whereas core inflation expectations from surveys or macroeconomic projections are typically only available monthly or quarterly.

Managing the transition to central bank digital currency

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Mercredi, février 14, 2024

Technical report, Regulation, Private sector, Aircraft, Interest, RTD, Policy, CES, Research Papers in Economics, A.2, The Economic Journal, RTK, International Settlement, F30, Next, A.6, Community business development corporation, A.7, UIP, American Economic Journal, National bank, Paper, Bank, Macroeconomics, Economy, Central bank, GSS, Capital, XF, Elasticity, Government, Competition, Credit, Social science, Volatility, Domestic, European, IH, Investment, A.13, SSRN, Intermediate, A.5, Section 2, AP, Probability, Review of Economic Dynamics, Foreign, Journal of Monetary Economics, Remuneration, Uncertainty, Medical classification, Bank of England, Shock, DF, Bank of Canada, ISSN, CIA, European Central Bank, Survival, RD, FH, KT, N B, Cuore, Monetary economics, Section 3, Welfare, Iteration, DSGE, Blessthefall, Reserve, Website, GBP, Calibration, RDC, Parameter, DCT, GDP, KF, Sokol, Rebelo, Figure, De Nederlandsche Bank, Parity, TFP, Depreciation, Total, BIS, Home, Section 4, Attitude, Acquisition, JEL, Cross, Household, FF, QT, Control, Swiss, Motion, ECB, M. A, GF, A.9, RT, Cattolica, Exercise, C.2, XH, Tax, Crowding, European Parliament, Literature, Reproduction, Political economy, Committee, Exp, E50, Uhlig, EUR, IID, Digital currency, Tourism, American Economic Review, Manuscript, AG, A.8, Research, F41, Friction, Public sector, PDF, U N, YH, Cryptocurrency

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