Uncertainty

The use of AI in war games could change military strategy

Retrieved on: 
Mardi, avril 23, 2024
Uncertainty, Synthetic media, Military science, Intuition, Organization, War, Artificial intelligence, Exercise, Environment, AI, Risk, First, Management

The rise of commercially viable generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform a vast range of sectors.

Key Points: 
  • The rise of commercially viable generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to transform a vast range of sectors.
  • Generative AI will fundamentally reshape war gaming — analytical games that simulate aspects of warfare at tactical, operational or strategic levels — by allowing senior military and political leaders to pursue better tactical solutions to unexpected crises, solve more complex logistical and operational challenges and deepen their strategic thinking.

The art of war gaming

  • From its inception, war gaming has been intended to offer realistic training to commanders that could otherwise only be gained through real-world experience.
  • War gaming also offers a way to test operational plans, allowing leaders to gain experience planning large-scale operations and work through complex logistical challenges.
  • Lastly, war games provide the foundation for a common strategic culture within a country’s military and national security institutions.

Generative AI

  • As with other strategy games like chess, Risk and Go, generative AI will be capable of challenging commanders’ handling of battlefield tactics.
  • Advances in AI could allow military leaders to gain additional competencies in handling sophisticated military AI and receive tactical advice from a broader range of perspectives.
  • Lastly, generative AI will allow war games to incorporate more strategy, providing invaluable insights and experience to both military and political leaders.

Preparing for uncertainty

  • AI’s capacity to introduce new developments into game play, including through its faulty assumptions, will force commanders to prepare for uncertainty and the “fog of war,” an increasingly necessary skill in the complex environment of contemporary combat.
  • Read more:
    Robots can outwit us on the virtual battlefield, so let's not put them in charge of the real thing

Military science revolution

  • The rise of generative AI and its contribution to war gaming will likely prompt yet another revolution in the field of military science.
  • These games will improve the realism of training exercises and prepare leaders for the future of conflict, solve complex logistical challenges and spark new innovations in overarching military strategy.


John Long Burnham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Elon Musk says ‘disc replacement’ worked for him. But evidence this surgery helps chronic pain is lacking

Retrieved on: 
Mardi, avril 23, 2024
Uncertainty, Chronic pain, Biography, Exercise, Infection, Patient, Research, Neck pain, Spinal fusion, Low back pain, Surgeon, Leg, Clinical trial, Back pain, Fracture, Ketamine, Spine, Pain, Elon Musk, Musk, Movement, Neck, Dentistry

In comments following the post, Musk said the surgery was a “gamechanger” and reduced his pain significantly.

Key Points: 
  • In comments following the post, Musk said the surgery was a “gamechanger” and reduced his pain significantly.
  • So what is disc replacement surgery and what does the evidence tells us about its benefits and harms?

What’s involved in a disc replacement?

  • Disc replacement may be performed for a number of reasons, including slipped discs in the neck, as appears to be the case for Musk.
  • In Australia, even if you have health insurance, a disc replacement surgery may leave you more than A$12,000 out of pocket.
  • Disc replacement surgery is not performed as much as other spinal surgeries (for example, spinal fusion) but its use is increasing.
  • In New South Wales for example, rates of privately-funded disc replacement increased six-fold from 6.2 per million people in 2010–11 to 38.4 per million in 2019–20.

What are the benefits and harms?

  • But there has been very little research comparing disc replacement surgery with non-surgical treatments.
  • Unfortunately, these crucial first research steps have largely been skipped for disc replacement surgery for both neck and back pain.
  • There are no clinical trials we know of investigating whether disc replacement is effective for neck pain compared to nothing or compared to non-surgical treatments.
  • Complications are not uncommon, and can include disclocation of the artificial disc, fracture (break) of the artificial disc, and infection.
  • Revision surgery means a re-do to the primary surgery if something needs fixing.

Are there effective alternatives?

  • Many surgeons see disc replacement as an alternative to spinal fusion, and this choice is often presented to patients.
  • Indeed, the research evidence used to support disc replacement mainly comes from studies that compare disc replacement to spinal fusion.
  • Fortunately for patients, there are new, non-surgical treatments for neck and back pain that evidence is showing are effective – and are far cheaper than surgery.
  • Christine Lin receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), and Medical Research Future Fund.
  • Christopher Maher receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), and Medical Research Future Fund.

Luis de Guindos: Interview with Le Monde

Retrieved on: 
Mardi, avril 23, 2024
Reproduction, Uncertainty, Generation, Growth, Le Monde, ECB, Risk, Federal, Frankfurt, Communication, Choking, Economy, GDP, Fed, European Commission, Federal Reserve, Movement, European Central Bank

Since 2022 rising housing costs have, on average, largely been offset by growth in household income, leading to stable housing cost to household income ratios.

Key Points: 
  • Since 2022 rising housing costs have, on average, largely been offset by growth in household income, leading to stable housing cost to household income ratios.
  • The housing cost burden has, however, increased slightly for both renter and mortgage households at the upper end of the income distribution.

Monetary asmmetries without (and with) price stickiness

Retrieved on: 
Vendredi, avril 19, 2024
Online, University, Public Security Section 9, Employment, Calibration, Small, Equity, Volume Ten, Research Papers in Economics, Policy, A.4, Communication, Crisis, Mass, Silvana Tenreyro, Business, Shock, Intuition, Business cycle, TFP, Volume, European Economic Review, Marginal value, SME, NBER, Forecasting, Depression, 3rd millennium, European Economic Association, Conceptual model, Journal of Monetary Economics, Insurance, Harmonization, Great Depression, CES, Economic Inquiry, Paper, Environment, Political economy, Journal of Financial Economics, MIT, University of York, COVID-19, Behavior, Review of Economic Dynamics, Rigid transformation, Website, Access to finance, Accounting, Working paper, Probability, Total, Appendix, Section 8, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Zero lower bound, Curve, Chapter, Cost, Nominal, Journal of Political Economy, Euro, PDF, ECB, Unemployment, Hoarding, STAT, Economic Policy (journal), Household, Canadian International Council, Social science, Government, Federal Reserve Bank, JEL, Journal, Textbook, Missing, Food, Private sector, A.5, Asymmetric, The Journal of Finance, Credit, Speech, Princeton University Press, Literature, NK, European Central Bank, Growth, Labour, Monetary economics, Loss aversion, Financial intermediary, Injection, Elasticity, Inventory, Subprime lending, Ben Bernanke, Finance, BIS, Phillips curve, International Economic Review, Money, London School of Economics, Marginal product of labor, Pruning, Marginal product, The Economic Journal, Rate, Aswath Damodaran, Risk, OECD, Competition (economics), Section 4, MIT Press, Consumption, Bond, Section 3, Yield curve, Loanable funds, Habit, Cobb–Douglas production function, Economy, Aarhus University, Financial economics, Section 2, Conference, Central bank, Chapter Two, Monetary policy, Capital, Hartman–Grobman theorem, CEPR, Framework, American Economic Review, Capital Markets Union, ZLB, Exercise, Liquidity, Interest, Intensive word form, Workshop, European Commission, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Population growth, B1, Response, Quarterly Journal, Community business development corporation, GDP, E31, Control, Journal of Economic Theory, Christian Social Union (UK), T2M, Hamper, Data, American Economic Journal, Aggregate, Konstantinidis, B.1, A.9, A.6, Remuneration, Civil service commission, EUR, Uncertainty, Motivation, A.7, Bank, GFC, Section 13, Motion, Reproduction, IMF, Staggers Rail Act, Abstract, Tale, Handbook, Asymmetry, Stanford University, Communications satellite
Key Points: 

    Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A)

    Retrieved on: 
    Jeudi, avril 18, 2024
    Well, Reproduction, EUR, Speech, Uncertainty, Season, CPI, Comment, Growth, Projection, Pressure, ECB, European Parliament, Mechanics, Risk, Frankfurt, Disinflation, Next Generation, Policy, News, Communication, Nature, Outline, TPI, Credit, Investment, Parity, Fed, European, Risk assessment, APP, Single market, Watcher, Personal ordinariate, PEPP, European Central Bank, MPS, Cryptocurrency

    Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.

    Key Points: 
    • Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.
    • The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers.

    Frank Elderson: “Know thyself” – avoiding policy mistakes in light of the prevailing climate science

    Retrieved on: 
    Jeudi, avril 18, 2024
    European Convention, Reproduction, Failure, European Court, Face, Human rights, Frankfurt, Climate, United Nations, World Bank Group, Investment, Paris Agreement, International economics, Policy, Bank of Greece, Wildfire, Speech, Environment, United Nations Environment Programme, Science, ECB, Blog, Risk, Education, EIOPA, Communication, Drought, Ancient Greek, Climate change, Safety, Watcher, De Nederlandsche Bank, Procrastination, Depression, European Environment Agency, Green, Tourism, Knowledge, Research, Food, Private sector, Insurance, IPCC, Movement, European Central Bank, The, Temperature, Health, Uncertainty, Attention, Conference, Financial system, Supervisory board, Oracle, Bank, Fishery, Flood, Thought, DELFI, Water, World Bank, Persians, Government, International human rights law, Renewable energy

    Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.

    Key Points: 
    • Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.
    • The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers.

    Isabel Schnabel: The future of inflation (forecast) targeting

    Retrieved on: 
    Jeudi, avril 18, 2024
    Reproduction, Exercise, Finance, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Calibration, Frankfurt, Empirical evidence, American Economic Association, Great Moderation, Interest, Inflation, Norges Bank, Policy, Bank, The Economic Journal, Speech, Employment, ECB, Risk, University of Chicago Press, Communication, Sveriges Riksbank, Debate, OECD, European Economic Review, Watcher, Economic Policy (journal), Goethe University Frankfurt, Federal Reserve Bank, Depression, Christian Social Union (UK), Climate change, Projection, IPhone, Intelligence, Agriculture, Bias, Journal, Research, Disinflation, Harvard Business School, University, Food, Business cycle, Bank of England, European Central Bank, The, American Economic Journal, Uncertainty, Attention, Finance Secretary (India), Conference, Forecasting, Growth, Rotation, Environment, Reserve Bank, Federal, COVID-19, Washington, D.C., Metal, HICP, Federal Reserve, Working paper, American Economic Review, Cryptocurrency

    Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.

    Key Points: 
    • Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.
    • The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers.

    Forecast processes and methodologies: results of the 2023 special survey - Survey conducted on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the ECB SPF

    Retrieved on: 
    Jeudi, avril 18, 2024
    Reproduction, NAIRU, European Central Bank, Employment, Climate change, Uncertainty, Tax, PDF, Forecasting, Growth, National Institute Economic Review, Central bank, ECB, Unemployment, Shock, Travel, MRO, SPF, Participation, Bank, Social Research (journal), Policy, Artificial intelligence, Website, HICP, Chart, GDP, Weather, Elasticity, Recreation, Machine learning, Probability, ISSN, Management

    Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.

    Key Points: 
    • Stock market development and familiarity (language and distance) are considered key determinants for home bias.
    • The literature neglects however that investors often invest in foreign funds domiciled in financial centers.

    Central bank digital currency and monetary policy implementation

    Retrieved on: 
    Jeudi, avril 18, 2024
    E41, Central bank digital currency, Atlantic Council, Research Papers in Economics, Remuneration, Norges Bank, People's Bank of China, Policy, Central Bank of Myanmar, Bank for International Settlements, Blog, Financial innovation, Sveriges Riksbank, Bank of Canada, Mechanics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Insurance, Bank of England, E42, Corridor, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Report card, Frankfurt, Appetite, American Economic Association, Digital rupee, Rosolin, RBI, PDF, Private, ECB, Committee, Inden, North Rhine-Westphalia, Bank, Canadian International Council, Social science, JEL, JMD, ECCB, Digital, Journal, Research, POC, European Central Bank, ENaira, M.A, Monetary economics, Section 5, Government, ISSN, The, Central bank, Finance, Buffer, Parliament, CBN, EONIA, Asset, ATM, Risk, International Monetary Fund, Interbank, Section 4, Ministry, Press release, Section 3, Human, Waterfall, Cryptocurrency, Economy, Swiss National Bank, PIB, Section 2, Conference, Reserve Bank, Reserve Bank of India, GBP, Progress, Road, American Economic Review, CBB, Digital currency, Agur, European Commission, International Settlement, Constraint, Money, Community business development corporation, City, Equivalence, Eligibility, Ministry of Finance, Report, Control, Civil service commission, EUR, Uncertainty, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, Abadi, Rest, Reproduction, Fintech, IMF, Federal Reserve, LCR, Data
    Key Points: 

      Feedback on the input provided by the European Parliament as part of its resolution on the ECB’s Annual Report 2022

      Retrieved on: 
      Jeudi, avril 18, 2024
      Crypto, European banking union, Governance, Exercise, TARGET, Ciccarelli, Single, Climate, OJ, Ethics, Carbon, ECRB, Parliament, Council, European Systemic Risk Board, European Commission, Paris Agreement, Television, Annual, Letter, Speech, Employment, Social, ESRB, Euro, Prejudice, FSB, AML, ECB, Blog, Risk, ESCB, Committee, NGFS, Policy, Woman, Suggestion, Radio, GDP, Privacy, Weather, Person, Climate change, Communication, Digital, Intelligence, Economic and monetary union, SSM, Bias, Knowledge, Mentorship, EMU, Commission, Economy, Publication, Annual report, Financial Action Task Force, Orientation, Nickel, NPL, European Central Bank, Uncertainty, Financial Stability Board, Conference, NCBS, Treaty, Growth, Financial system, Central bank, European Parliament, Network, Natural Resources, COVID-19, Terrorism, Bank, Female, IMF, Multi-function printer, Recreation, Memorandum, Data, AMLA, Security printing

      Beyond managing related risks, the financial sector can also contribute to the transition toward a net-zero economy.

      Key Points: 
      • Beyond managing related risks, the financial sector can also contribute to the transition toward a net-zero economy.
      • Our work aims to enhance data transparency in climate change analysis, while informing monetary policy, financial stability and banking supervision.
      • The indicators we have developed focus on the euro area financial sector and are built from harmonised granular datasets.