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Myanmar’s misery: 3 years after the military coup, is there any end in sight for a ravaged country?

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
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Three years since a military coup ousted Myanmar’s democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, a brutal civil war has left the country devastated.

Key Points: 
  • Three years since a military coup ousted Myanmar’s democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, a brutal civil war has left the country devastated.
  • Democratic governments from around the world might shorten the conflict by supplying the opposition forces and more progressive ethnic armed groups with aid and military support.
  • Read more:
    Myanmar junta reducing Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence is an empty gesture from a failing state

What is life like under the military junta?

  • Myanmar struggled during the first year of the COVID pandemic, but unlike other countries, it has yet to see a recovery.
  • Many other parts of society have been transformed for the worse by three years of jolting political violence.
  • Many limp along, a pale facsimile of the vibrant and outward-looking teams that did such impressive work before the coup.
  • Many young people have abandoned their studies and careers to fight against the military, or are plotting their routes to escape.

What gains have been made by the opposition forces?


While the military and opposition have been in a stalemate for most of the last three years, there have been rapid developments on the battlefield in recent months, with the junta experiencing catastrophic losses. In October, opposition forces known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance conducted Operation 1027, capturing two border towns in northern Shan state and overrunning hundreds of military posts and bases.

  • And in the central Sagaing region, the People’s Defence Force, the armed wing of the exiled opposition National Unity Government, captured a key town.
  • Then, in mid-November, the powerful Arakan Army, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, broke a year-long ceasefire with the military in western Rakhine state.
  • They seized border guard posts and attacked regime forces in four major townships, resulting in tens of thousands of displaced villagers.
  • But as the war in Ukraine has also shown, inexpensive drone technology is starting to win battles for the opposition forces, as well.

What will 2024 bring?

  • But it may find that keeping the coup makers in charge serves to delay the rebuilding of a shattered society and could further destabilise the region.
  • But as with the the conflict in Ukraine, US funding for Myanmar has been delayed due to gridlock in Washington.
  • The junta leaders may eventually seek some kind of political compromise, particularly if there are fractures within the military.
  • Nicholas Farrelly has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council for Myanmar-focussed work.
  • He is on the board of the Australia-ASEAN Council, which is an Australian government body, and also a Director of NAATI, Australia's government-owned accreditation authority for translators and interpreters.

Military violence in Myanmar is worsening amid fierce resistance and international ambivalence

Retrieved on: 
Saturday, April 15, 2023
People, Weapon, Pressure, United Nations, Democracy, Justice, Bomb, Violence, Freedom, Bomber, Failure, Instability, Gun, Turkish coup d'état, Woman, Ambush, Movement, Government, Activism, US, Karenni, National League, National League for Democracy, Population, Atrocity, Association, United, Nobel, Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, Chevron, Surface warfare, Group, Nightclub, Drug, Rare-earth element, Arms industry, Cryptocurrency, Bamar people

More than two years on from a coup that installed military rule in the Southeast Asian country, pro-democracy protesters say they have yet to receive an adequate answer.

Key Points: 
  • More than two years on from a coup that installed military rule in the Southeast Asian country, pro-democracy protesters say they have yet to receive an adequate answer.
  • The day before the Sagaing massacre, the Myanmar air force dropped bombs in Falam, Chin State, killing 11 people.
  • In response, a fierce resistance movement has emerged, with an estimated 65,000 fighters using ambushes and other guerrilla tactics against military targets.

From coup to civil war

    • The coup ended the short period of democratic rule under Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy.
    • In 2014, generals in Thailand launched a coup ending months of political instability and promising a process back to democratic rule.
    • The Myanmar military similarly promised “free and fair elections” further down the line after its coup.
    • After peaceful protests following the coup were met with live ammunition, pro-democracy activists turned to armed resistance.

Uniting around a common enemy

    • Despite slow initial progress to show a common front, the Bamar majority and minority ethic groups such as Karen, Chin, Kachin, Rakhine and Karenni appear to be unifying against military rule.
    • The military is reportedly facing an acute shortage of new recruits, resulting in women being trained to fight in combat.
    • People in the Bamar heartlands, including Sagaing where the April 11 massacre occurred, are refusing to let their sons join the Myanmar army.

Leaving the oil and gas taps running

    • Both the U.S. and the United Nations have made statements in support of democracy in Myanmar, and condemned killings.
    • Activist group Justice for Myanmar has identified 22 oil and gas companies from countries including the U.S. that have continued to provide revenue to Myanmar’s generals during the civil war.
    • Indeed, U.S. oil companies including Chevron lobbied hard against broad sanctions against the Myanmar military.
    • The failure to shut off oil revenue allows Myanmar’s generals – for whom oil and gas is a major revenue source – to fund the military.

Beware the tiger’s tail


    A well-known Myanmar phrase warns against the dangers of “catching hold of a tiger’s tail” – once you do so there is no turning back; let go and you will be killed. It aptly sums up the position now for Myanmar’s military rulers and the resistance fighters being drawn deeper into conflict with each atrocity. They are fighting for the past, present and the future and can’t let go now.