National unity government

• Three years since a military coup ousted Myanmar’s democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, a brutal civil war has left the country devastated.
• Democratic governments from around the world might shorten the conflict by supplying the opposition forces and more progressive ethnic armed groups with aid and military support.
• Read more:
  Myanmar junta reducing Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence is an empty gesture from a failing state

What is life like under the military junta?

• Myanmar struggled during the first year of the COVID pandemic, but unlike other countries, it has yet to see a recovery.
• Many other parts of society have been transformed for the worse by three years of jolting political violence.
• Many limp along, a pale facsimile of the vibrant and outward-looking teams that did such impressive work before the coup.
• Many young people have abandoned their studies and careers to fight against the military, or are plotting their routes to escape.

What gains have been made by the opposition forces?

While the military and opposition have been in a stalemate for most of the last three years, there have been rapid developments on the battlefield in recent months, with the junta experiencing catastrophic losses. In October, opposition forces known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance conducted Operation 1027, capturing two border towns in northern Shan state and overrunning hundreds of military posts and bases.

• And in the central Sagaing region, the People’s Defence Force, the armed wing of the exiled opposition National Unity Government, captured a key town.
• Then, in mid-November, the powerful Arakan Army, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, broke a year-long ceasefire with the military in western Rakhine state.
• They seized border guard posts and attacked regime forces in four major townships, resulting in tens of thousands of displaced villagers.
• But as the war in Ukraine has also shown, inexpensive drone technology is starting to win battles for the opposition forces, as well.

What will 2024 bring?

• But it may find that keeping the coup makers in charge serves to delay the rebuilding of a shattered society and could further destabilise the region.
• But as with the the conflict in Ukraine, US funding for Myanmar has been delayed due to gridlock in Washington.
• The junta leaders may eventually seek some kind of political compromise, particularly if there are fractures within the military.

• Nicholas Farrelly has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council for Myanmar-focussed work.
• He is on the board of the Australia-ASEAN Council, which is an Australian government body, and also a Director of NAATI, Australia's government-owned accreditation authority for translators and interpreters.