Antarctic

• Over the past two years, Antarctic sea ice has declined dramatically, prompting scientists to suggest it could reach a “new state”.
• Our research shows Emperors form colonies in surprisingly diverse environmental conditions that vary depending on location around the continent.
• Read more:
  As Antarctic sea ice continues its dramatic decline, we need more measurements and much better models to predict its future

Why fast ice is important

• Even though Antarctica’s sea ice is diminishing, this refers to a measure known as “sea ice extent”, which includes all sea ice covering the polar ocean, whether it is fast ice or drifting pack ice.
• A decrease in sea ice extent is not necessary linearly linked to a drop in the area covered by fast ice (although the reverse is true).

Emperors are unlikely to move far

• The persistence of the ice (how long it lasts into the summer) was important because chicks had more time to develop their water-proof swimming feathers.
• In other cases, Emperors preferred sites with shallow ocean depths below the colony.
• It is therefore unlikely Emperors would move far to avoid more severe climate impacts, even if “better” habitats existed and could host larger colonies.

Protecting penguin habitat

• If we want to live in a world with Emperor penguins, the most important thing to do would be to cut greenhouse gas emissions steeply.
• Another key action could be to prevent fishing in areas where climate change will have the most impact.
• Now that our research provides more detailed information about penguin habitats, we can begin the process of more careful planning for conservation.
• The world’s largest marine protected area exists in the Ross Sea, which is home to about 25% of the world’s Emperor penguins.

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• "2024 looks to be another fun year with exciting new rides in our parks and our first jellyfish exhibit," said Marc Swanson, CEO of SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment.

• A layer of frozen seawater that surrounds the Antarctic continent, sea ice cycles from maximum coverage in September to a minimum in February.
• Some scientists have suggested this year could mark a regime shift for Antarctic sea ice.
• The consequences could be far-reaching for Earth’s climate, because sea ice keeps the planet cooler by reflecting solar energy back into the atmosphere and insulating the ocean.
• The annual freeze-thaw cycle of Antarctic sea ice is one of Earth’s largest seasonal changes, but is a major challenge for climate models to predict accurately.

Why we couldn’t predict this

• Satellite records show a small increasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent from 2007 to 2016, but this was followed by a decrease since then.
• Global climate models predicted that Antarctic sea ice extent should have been diminishing for all of that period, which is at odds with the observations.
• Many research groups around the world have investigated the reasons why models have failed to accurately simulate Antarctic sea ice.

Changes in sea ice thickness

• The data are mostly from land-fast sea ice, which is the sea ice attached to land or ice shelves.
• We need both sea ice area and thickness to determine sea ice volume, which is important for knowing the overall impact of climate change on sea ice.

Antarctic storms

• McMurdo Sound is a region of the Antarctic coastline in the Ross Sea where both New Zealand (Scott Base) and the USA (McMurdo Station) have Antarctic bases.
• In 2022, multiple storms kept blowing out McMurdo Sound sea ice during winter.
• This thinner-than-usual sea ice caused major disruptions in Antarctic operations for New Zealand and other countries in 2022.
• We received logistical support for Antarctic field work from Antarctica New Zealand, and high performance computing resources through NeSI.

• Right now, Antarctica’s climate and ecosystems are experiencing disturbing changes.
• A crucial ocean current is slowing down, and glaciers and ice shelves are disintegrating.
• Some 22 of those were spent at the federal government’s Australian Antarctic Division; my final day there was last Thursday.
• Read more:
  Antarctic alarm bells: observations reveal deep ocean currents are slowing earlier than predicted

Crucial to life as we know it

• Without the buttressing of the ice shelves, glaciers flow faster to the sea.
• In East Antarctica, lesser-known ice shelves have collapsed and glaciers are shrinking, adding to sea-level rise.
• Scientific research is crucial in the face of these threats, to help better understand these changes now and over the longer term, and to feed into policy interventions.
• Surprisingly a budget shortfall appears to be inadvertently curtailing plans for science this summer, according to the Guardian Australia.
• In July, the ABC reported the Antarctic Division told staff A$25 million in budget savings was needed this financial year.
• Efforts to reduce albatross bycatch in longline fishing were also led by Antarctic Division scientists.

Cleaning up the mess in Antarctica

The story of Antarctica serves as a compelling reminder humanity must end our reliance on fossil fuels. We must also do a far better job of environmental stewardship – including paying for the scientific research so urgently needed. Failing to fully support vital Antarctic science in a rapidly unfolding climate emergency, in my view, is unwise.