France's decision to leave Niger was a bad move: three reasons why

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Only four weeks earlier, Macron had refused to follow the instructions of the putschists who’d ordered the ambassador and French forces to leave the country.

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The ConversationThe Conversation
URL: 
https://theconversation.com/frances-decision-to-leave-niger-was-a-bad-move-three-reasons-why-214442https://theconversation.com/frances-decision-to-leave-niger-was-a-bad-move-three-reasons-why-214442
Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, October 3, 2023
Information
Tags: 
Communication, Democracy, Macron, Diplomacy, Politics, Fear, Al-Qaeda, G5, Terrorism, Government, Multinational Joint Task Force, European, Architecture, Morale, Wagner Group, Gum arabic, Tourism, Drug, EU, Richard Wagner
Geotags: 
EUROPEAN UNION, PAKISTAN, MALI, AFGHANISTAN, AFRICA, NIGER, BURKINA FASO, LIBYA, US, RUSSIA, EUROPE, SAHEL, FRANCE
Summary
Key Points: 
  • Only four weeks earlier, Macron had refused to follow the instructions of the putschists who’d ordered the ambassador and French forces to leave the country.
  • He argued that he did not recognise the new junta, which took power on 26 July, and insisted that his forces would remain in the country.
  • As a scholar of politics and international relations, I have been exploring the security situation and the rise of insurgency in the Sahel for over a decade.
  • The US resumed operations in some of its bases in Niger, having secured agreement from the junta.

The fight against terrorism

    • The country is actively involved in and contributes to security organisations such as the G5 Sahel and the Multinational Joint Task Force.
    • These organisations are involved in the fight against terrorism in the region.
    • The decision by France to pull out of Niger will have an impact on counter terrorism operations in the region.
    • France has been involved there for a long time and has soldiers who thoroughly understand the region.

Russia versus the US

    • Nevertheless, it is not unreasonable to assume that one of Washington’s reasons for making sure it remained in Niger was the fear that it might lose the country to Russia.
    • In Mali, the military junta replaced French troops with Wagner forces.
    • Since 2022, Russia has gained influence through the Wagner Group after the exit of France.

What it means for migration

    • The EU needs stability in Niger to stem trafficking and avoid another humanitarian catastrophe as seen in 2015-16.
    • Europe witnessed the highest number of migrants transiting through Niger and Libya into Europe during this period.
    • While serving as interior minister, Bazoum was instrumental in passing a law against people smuggling through Niger.

Next steps


    While I understand that increased diplomacy with the junta cements its authority, I think foreign powers should accept that there is a government in Niger that has some degree of popularity among the citizens. Frozen channels of diplomacy must be reactivated to prevent a total collapse of the Sahel’s security architecture and in order to achieve a quick transition to democracy.
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