- A major part of the deal involved the US and UK helping Australia acquire nuclear-propulsion submarines.
- This decision by the Morrison government controversially entailed backing out of a A$90 billion deal with a French company to purchase 12 submarines.
1. AUKUS increases the likelihood of war
- Others argue AUKUS encourages a military industrial complex that ostensibly makes Australia more of a dependent – rather than independent – ally to the US.
- It also overlooks the prospect that war might not happen – that China will squeeze, rather than seize Taiwan.
- Whether or not we’d support the US in a war, Dean says, is the wrong question in the wrong argument.
- This belief that AUKUS increases the likelihood of war also misreads the nuanced nature of deterrence for which credible force is needed.
2. Australia doesn’t need nuclear-propulsion submarines
- Australia is interested in nuclear-propulsion submarines because its ageing fleet of diesel-electric propulsion submarines has become vulnerable to aerial detection and strikes.
- Given that stealth had been their only advantage over surface warships, diesel-electric submarines are no longer so useful where long transits are involved.
- Australia’s diesel-electric submarines cannot transit from any major domestic or foreign port to their base in Western Australia without multiple snorts.
- A fleet should also be able to be deployed three times longer than Australia’s current submarines, remaining undetected without needing to recharge batteries.
3. The neighbours don’t like it
Official reservations about AUKUS in public declarations are entirely understandable, given Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy. Yet, the new enhanced defence pact signed by Australia and Indonesia on August 29 suggests that Indonesia, like the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam, are quite comfortable with Australia engaging in AUKUS and with its neighbours concurrently.
4. The focus on the Anglosphere detracts from regional engagement
- But these days, Australia is successfully managing the tension between its Anglosphere roots and its physical place in the world.
- Arguably, it’s a key factor making it attractive for foreign students and migrants, luring them away from UK and US alternatives.
- Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s diplomatic successes also belie the line that AUKUS detracts from engagement with our neighbours.
5. The cost is unconscionable
- A cost of up to A$368 billion over 30 years sounds like a lot.
- Defence budget increases are occurring only incrementally, with substantial increases slated for several years into the future.
- To be sure, the government must grapple with competing demands for missiles, aircraft, drones and other fighting systems.
Balancing interests