ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – October 2022

*Perceived inflation over the previous 12 months continued to rise, with the median rate now standing at 9.9%.

Metadata

Provider:

ECB

URL:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr221207~cda8f02f9f.en.html

Retrieved on:

Friday, December 16, 2022

Information

Geotags:

SPAIN, FRANCE, NETHERLANDS, BELGIUM, UKRAINE, GERMANY, ITALY

Summary

Key Points:

*Perceived inflation over the previous 12 months continued to rise, with the median rate now standing at 9.9%.
Inflation expectations remained well below the perceived past inflation rate, particularly at the medium-term horizon of three years.
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased from 5.1% to 5.4%, while expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 3.0%.
Uncertainty about inflation 12 months ahead edged up, remaining well above the level that prevailed before the start of the war in Ukraine.
Consumers inflation perceptions and expectations were closely aligned across income groups, but younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 55-70).
Consumers expectations for nominal spending remained broadly aligned across income groups; younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower expectations for nominal spending than older respondents.
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months declined from -2.4% in September to -2.6%.
Consistent with the lower expectations for economic growth, expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 12.5%, up from 12.2% in September.
Expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead increased further to 4.7%, 1.4 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2022.
Both consumers perceived access to credit over the previous 12 months and their expectations of access to credit over the next 12 months tightened significantly.