ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September 2022

Inflation expectations remained well below the perceived past inflation rate, particularly at the medium-term horizon of three years.

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Friday, November 11, 2022

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Inflation expectations remained well below the perceived past inflation rate, particularly at the medium-term horizon of three years.
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased from 5.0% to 5.1%, while expectations for inflation three years ahead were unchanged at 3.0%.
Consumers inflation perceptions and expectations were closely aligned across income groups, while younger respondents (18-34 years) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (55-70 years).
Consumers expectations for nominal spending remained broadly aligned across income groups, while younger respondents (18-34 years) continued to report lower expectations for nominal spending than older respondents.
Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months declined significantly from -1.7% in August to -2.4%.
Consistent with the lower expectations for economic growth, expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 12.2%, from 11.9% in August.
Expectations for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead increased further to 4.5%, 1.2 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2022.
While consumers perceived access to credit over the previous 12 months tightened again, their expectations of access to credit over the next 12 months eased slightly.
*(Link to Housing and credit access results and charts) *For media queries, please contact * **Silvia Margiocco , tel.