Electoral college

Why rural white Americans’ resentment is a threat to democracy

Retrieved on:

金曜日, 4月 5, 2024

Although there is no uniform definition of “rural,” and even federal agencies cannot agree on a single standard, roughly 20% of Americans live in rural communities, according to the Census Bureau’s definition.

Key Points:

Although there is no uniform definition of “rural,” and even federal agencies cannot agree on a single standard, roughly 20% of Americans live in rural communities, according to the Census Bureau’s definition.
The unfortunate fact is that polls suggest many rural white people’s commitment to the American political system is eroding.
Even when they are not members of militant organizations, rural white people, as a group, now pose four interconnected threats to the fate of the United States’ pluralist, constitutional democracy.
Although these do not apply to all rural white people, nor exclusively to them in general, when compared with other Americans, rural white people:

Let’s examine a few data points.

Xenophobia

That’s a lower proportion than urban and suburban dwellers and even nonwhite rural residents.
In addition, Cornell researchers found that rural whites reported feeling less comfortable with gay and lesbian people than urban whites do.

Conspiracism

Polls in 2020 and 2021 indicated that QAnon supporters are 1.5 times more likely to live in rural areas than urban ones, and 49% of rural residents – 10 points higher than the national average – believe a “deep state” undermines Trump.
Rural residents are also more likely than urban and suburban residents to believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, according to 2021 polling by the Public Religion Research Institute.

Antidemocratic beliefs

In addition, more than half of rural residents surveyed by the Public Religion Research Institute said being a Christian is important to “being truly American” – 10 percentage points more than in surburban or urban areas.
This is one of several signals that rural residents are disproportionately likely to support white Christian nationalism, an ideology that reaches beyond Christian ideas of faith and morality and into government.

Justification of violence

And 27% of Americans who say Trump should be returned to office even if “by force” are rural residents.
Those are minority views, but both proportions are significantly higher than the rural proportion of the overall population.

Thomas F. Schaller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Climate change matters to more and more people – and could be a deciding factor in the 2024 election

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水曜日, 3月 13, 2024

Fewer than 5% of respondents in 2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country.

Key Points:

Fewer than 5% of respondents in 2023 and 2024 Gallup surveys said that climate change was the most important problem facing the country.
Climate change opinions may even have had a large enough effect to change the 2020 election outcome in President Joe Biden’s favor.

Measuring climate change’s effect on elections

The survey asked voters to rate climate change’s importance with four options: “unimportant,” “not very important,” “somewhat important” or “very important.” In 2020, 67% of voters rated climate change as “somewhat important” or “very important,” up from 62% in 2016.
Of these voters rating climate change as important, 77% supported Biden in 2020, up from 69% who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016.
This poll found that more voters trust the Democrats’ approach to climate change, compared to Republicans’ approach to the issue.

What might explain the effect of climate change on voting

This means that climate change opinion would not need to have a very large effect on voting to change election outcomes.
Second, candidates who deny that climate change is real or a problem might turn off some moderate swing voters, even if climate change was not those voters’ top issue.
Third, some voters may be starting to see the connections between climate change and the kitchen-table issues that they consider to be higher priorities than climate change.

Where the candidates stand

Biden and former President Donald Trump have very different records on climate change and approaches to the environment.
While in office, Trump rolled back 125 environmental rules and policies aimed at protecting the country’s air, water, land and wildlife, arguing that these regulations hurt businesses.
He has also added several new rules and regulations, including a requirement for businesses to publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions.
Biden has also signed three major laws that each provides tens of billions in annual spending to address climate change.

What this means for 2024

If these trends continue, then climate change could provide the Democrats with an even larger electoral advantage in 2024.
Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the Democrats will win the 2024 election.
Immigration is currently the top issue for a plurality of voters, and recent national polls suggest that Trump currently leads the 2024 presidential race over Biden.

Matt Burgess receives funding from Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Bruce D. Benson Center for the Study of Western Civilization at the University of Colorado Boulder.

Early polls can offer some insight into candidates’ weak points – but are extremely imprecise

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月曜日, 2月 12, 2024

Recurrence, Embarrassment, Republican, Bloomberg, Electoral college, RealClearPolitics, Leap Day, CNN, Frustration, Quinnipiac University, Research, Pressure

Preelection polls have been inescapable early in the 2024 election year, setting storylines, as they invariably do, for journalists and pundits about the race for the presidency.

Key Points:

Preelection polls have been inescapable early in the 2024 election year, setting storylines, as they invariably do, for journalists and pundits about the race for the presidency.
At the same time, the polls have delivered reminders that they can be less than precise indicators of outcomes — as was evident in January’s Republican caucus in Iowa and primary in New Hampshire.
Although Trump won both states handily, the outcomes signaled anew that polls, however ubiquitous, are best treated warily.

Contradictory polls

The early-in-2024 polls assessing a presumptive rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden have broadly signaled a close race, while on occasion presenting whiplash-inducing, contradictory indications.
Whiplash results can stem from differences in how pollsters conduct their surveys and how they analyze and statistically adjust their findings.
His popular-vote margin in 2020 was 4.5 points, in what overall was the worst performance by polls since 1980.

Why pay any attention to polls?

The gap in the recent CNN and Quinnipiac poll results gives rise to an important question: Why, at such an early moment in the campaign, should voters pay any attention to preelection surveys?
When considered collectively, however, polls can offer intriguing insights about a developing race, some of which are apparent only in hindsight.
On Feb. 29, 2012, Barack Obama led Republican contender Mitt Romney by 4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
So it’s prudent not to over-interpret survey results reported early in the campaign, however accurate they may prove to be.

Will the polls get it right in 2024?

Outcomes in those and other swing states in November could determine who wins the presidency — much as they did in 2020.
It’s certainly “a live issue” whether the polls will get it right in 2024, as an academic journal article noted not long ago.
As I write in “Lost in a Gallup,” discrepancies between polling results and presidential election outcomes can have unsettling effects.

W. Joseph Campbell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

'Making Every Vote Count' Report Sparks National Dialogue on Electoral College Overhaul

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水曜日, 1月 31, 2024

MEVC, Attention, SJD, Election, Congress, Social policy, Chair, Electoral college, History, American Constitution Society, Constitution, Harvard Kennedy School, ACS, Washington College of Law, Management

"It is time that we once again have a sustained national conversation about alternatives to the Electoral College -- an electoral system that is clumsily complex, distorts presidential campaigns by focusing all attention on swing states, and permits a candidate who receives fewer votes to become President," commented Professor Alex Keyssar, Professor of History and Social Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, and author of the 2020 book entitled, Why Do We Still Have the Electoral College. "A majority of Americans have long believed that the electoral system needs change. Fifty years ago, Congress came within a few votes of approving a constitutional amendment for a national popular vote, and I agree with MEVC that the time is right for a wide-ranging discussion about the value of the Electoral College."

Key Points:

The MEVC report, titled " Improving Our Electoral College Syst em ," brings into focus the centuries-old shortcomings of the Electoral College and several possible alternatives to a system that does not reflect the democratic value of all votes counting equally.
"The stark disparities in voter turnout between 'safe' and swing states, coupled with the disproportionate impact on underrepresented groups, underscore the urgent need for Electoral College reform."
MEVC offers the report to advance public education about the historical roots of the Electoral College and to spark debate about whether the Electoral College still serves our modern democratic system of choosing elected officials by a vote of the people.
Engaging a diverse cross-section of American society, MEVC will lead discussions of Electoral College reforms in order to have a more inclusive and resilient presidential election system.

Ballot Access Tops Priorities for American Values 2024, the super PAC Supporting Kennedy for President

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土曜日, 12月 23, 2023

The New York Times, House, CNN, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., White, Quinnipiac University, Representative, Culture, Electoral college, Ballot access, Contingent election

NEW YORK, Dec. 22, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, American Values 2024 (AV24), the super PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s candidacy for president, has refined the states it will be funding for ballot access. The focus will now be on Arizona, California, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Texas. "Based on our legal guidance, we believe we won't be able to support ballot access in Indiana, Colorado and Nevada. The seven states we will initially focus on have a total of 183 electoral college votes and some of the highest populations in the country," said AV24 Co-Founder Tony Lyons. Earlier this month, AV24 announced it will spend between $10M-$15M to pursue Ballot Access in pivotal states. That remains the case.

Key Points:

NEW YORK, Dec. 22, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, American Values 2024 (AV24), the super PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s candidacy for president, has refined the states it will be funding for ballot access.
"Based on our legal guidance, we believe we won't be able to support ballot access in Indiana, Colorado and Nevada.
Earlier this month, AV24 announced it will spend between $10M-$15M to pursue Ballot Access in pivotal states.
American Values 2024 has hired two separate law firms to take all the steps necessary to get Kennedy on the ballot in the seven states listed above.

Grinnell College National Poll Shows Biden and Trump in a Dead Heat

Retrieved on:

木曜日, 10月 19, 2023

GRINNELL, Iowa, Oct. 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The newest Grinnell College National Poll shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat among likely voters if the 2024 general election was held today. In a poll conducted in collaboration with renowned Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, both Biden and Trump, running as their party's candidate, would attract 40% of likely voters – but 18% say they would vote for someone else. The Biden-Trump vote splits along partisan lines. Independents divide, but tilt toward Trump (35% vs. 32% for Biden), with 30% saying they would vote for someone else.

Key Points:

More Americans Say Democracy is Under Threat, Majority Support Constitutional Reforms
GRINNELL, Iowa, Oct. 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The newest Grinnell College National Poll shows President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in a dead heat among likely voters if the 2024 general election was held today.
Independents divide, but tilt toward Trump (35% vs. 32% for Biden), with 30% saying they would vote for someone else.
President Biden's approval rating comes in at 38%, the second-best showing in Grinnell College National Poll history, but a majority (53%) still disapprove of his job performance.
The Grinnell College National Poll surveyed 1,006 Americans ages 18 and over between October 10-15, 2023.

Why the Voice could be a bulwark against Trumpism gaining a stronger foothold in Australia

Retrieved on:

火曜日, 9月 26, 2023

As former Labor minister Barry Jones has wisely noted, the Voice referendum feels like 2016 all over again.

Key Points:

As former Labor minister Barry Jones has wisely noted, the Voice referendum feels like 2016 all over again.
The only consolation was that Trump did not win a majority of votes in the United States.
Maybe the Voice will prevail, as Senator Pat Dodson says:
I believe Australians are better than this.

A campaign defined by fear-mongering

Anthony Albanese has said there is “nothing scary, nothing to be fearful of here”.
Liberal Party politicians have been warned that those who support the Voice will lose their pre-selection for seats in parliament.
Former ACT Chief Minister Kate Carnell has said
This has been politicised to the point that people aren’t comfortable to campaign for what they believe in because of the politics.
This has been politicised to the point that people aren’t comfortable to campaign for what they believe in because of the politics.

How Trump’s messages seep into Australia

If he returns to power, Australia will undoubtedly see a steady flood of these messages via his social media posts and pronouncements from the Oval Office.
“Law and order” will be a recurrent theme in the 2024 presidential election, should Trump be the Republican candidate again.
Trump supporters in Australia, including some who hold or aspire to public office, will pick up those messages and propagate them here.
Read more:
'Alt-right white extremism' or conservative mobilising: what are CPAC's aims in Australia?

Why the Voice could insulate Australia from Trumpism

The existence of the Voice will mean that Trumpism is unlikely to derail what the body is intended to achieve.
The victorious opponents of the Voice, with their echoes of Trumpism, will be poised to keep advancing their agenda.
As George Megalogenis recently concluded, “A ‘no’ vote would revive both the colonial ghost of dispossession and the federation ghost of the White Australia policy.” That would be a victory for Trumpism in Australia, even before Trump’s fate is decided next year by voters in America.

US election 2024: beware polling predictions as they can be wrong – but here's an approach which has often been on the money

Retrieved on:

火曜日, 8月 22, 2023

Despite the avalanche of legal indictments, Donald Trump remains favourite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 US presidential election.

Key Points:

Despite the avalanche of legal indictments, Donald Trump remains favourite to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 US presidential election.
If he does win the Republican nomination the question is: can he win the presidential election in November next year?

Forecasting presidential elections

There is a lively community of political scientists using a variety of different methods to forecast elections, with many focusing on the US.
Most forecasting models use polling data, but since we are 15 months away from the presidential election, current polling should be treated with caution.
It should be noted that US pollsters have had a mixed record in forecasting elections.