Liberal

• Former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has ruled out attempting to displace Amelia Hamer as the Liberals’ candidate for Kooyong.
• Frydenberg’s quick decision comes after a public backlash against the possibility he could push aside an already preselected woman.
• Under the Victorian draft boundaries, the seat of Higgins, held by Labor, is set to be abolished, with large numbers of its voters pushed into Kooyong and Chisholm.
• Frydenberg posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Monday that he was “not rushing back to politics.

• All other WA seats will be held by their previous party, with the biggest change a 4.7-point lift in Labor’s Hasluck margin to 60.7–39.3.
• At the 2022 federal election, there was a 10.6% two-party swing to Labor in WA, compared with a 3.7% national swing.
• Historically, WA has been relatively weak for federal Labor, and Labor would be worried by the possibility of a significant swing back to the Coalition at the next federal election.
• And in WA, Bullwinkel is notionally Labor, although WA could swing back to the Coalition.
• The Victorian and WA redistributions are drafts, and are unlikely to be finalised for months.
• We are also still waiting for a New South Wales draft proposal; NSW will lose a seat.

Morgan poll: Coalition’s best position since last election

• In the national Morgan poll conducted May 20–26 from a sample of 1,488, the Coalition led by 51.5–48.5, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the May 13–19 poll.
• This is the Coalition’s best position in this poll since the last election.
• An estimate based on 2022 election preference flows would give Labor about a 51–49 lead, so respondent flows were weak for Labor.

Redbridge MRP poll: 52–48 to Labor

• Overall, Labor led by 52–48, from primary votes of 36% Coalition, 32% Labor, 13% Greens and 19% for all Others; these figures are almost identical to the 2022 election results.
• If this poll were replicated at an election, few seats would change hands, and Labor would retain government in minority or majority.

Further Resolve questions

I covered a federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers on May 20. In further questions, respondents were told that the “government recently released its future gas strategy, which outlines its plans for gas in Australia for the next few decades”. By 60–15, voters supported the use of gas in Australia’s energy mix. There was strong support for various uses of gas.

Tasmanian EMRS poll: major parties down since election

A Tasmanian EMRS poll, conducted May 16–23 from a sample of 1,000, gave the Liberals 35% of the vote (down two since the March 23 election), Labor 28% (down one), the Greens 15% (up one), the Jacqui Lambie Network 7% (steady), independents 12% (up two) and others 3% (down one).
Incumbent Liberal Jeremy Rockliff led new Labor leader Dean Winter by 40–32 as preferred premier (41–38 for Rockliff against former Labor leader Rebecca White in February).

Labour landslide likely at July 4 UK general election

• The argument was that by the time the official campaign started, it was too late to make any significant difference to the outcome.
• With just 25 working days to appeal to voters, it was largely felt that a party’s win or loss was already baked in by the time the campaigns started.
• One way of showing this is to monitor the extent to which voting intentions change during a campaign.
• When the votes were counted after the June 8 election, the Conservatives won 43%, Labour 40% and the Liberal Democrats 7%.

Can the tide turn in 25 days?

• The correlation between the two is quite strong (+0.73), which means that a lot of the electoral support for the party already exists before the campaign starts.
• The summary line provides a measure of pre-campaign support that is not related to what happens in the month or so of the campaign.
• The 1959 election stands out in the chart because it sits right on the summary line.
• In other words, deviations from the summary line tell us if the campaign was a success or a failure.
• Could this be because he has essentially given up, and wants to get back to Silicon Valley as soon as possible?

• OTTAWA, May 30, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Federally Regulated Employers – Transportation and Communications (FETCO) warns the replacement worker legislation recently passed in the House of Commons by the Liberals and NDP will put critical services at risk and drive up the cost of living.
• “This is a bill designed for political posturing,” said Derrick Hynes, President and CEO, FETCO.
• “Current Liberals voted against the same idea twice before because they know what anyone who looks carefully enough at this policy knows - it is creating a problem, not solving one.”
  Employers in transportation and communications must ensure critical services are provided to Canadians from coast to coast to coast.
• This bill will make it harder to meet those obligations, add to the cost-of-living pressures everyone is feeling, and introduce uncertainty into the Canadian economy.