GCSB

Out of the shadows: why making NZ’s security threat assessment public for the first time is the right move

Retrieved on: 
Friday, August 11, 2023
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Today’s release of the threat assessment by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) is the final piece in a defence and security puzzle that marks a genuine shift towards more open and public discussion of these crucial policy areas.

Key Points: 
  • Today’s release of the threat assessment by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) is the final piece in a defence and security puzzle that marks a genuine shift towards more open and public discussion of these crucial policy areas.
  • Together with July’s strategic foreign policy assessment from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the national security strategy released last week, it rounds out the picture of New Zealand’s place in a fast-evolving geopolitical landscape.

Low threat of violent extremism

    • If there is good news in the SIS assessment, it is that the threat of violent extremism is still considered “low”.
    • That means no change since the threat level was reassessed last year, with a terror attack considered “possible” rather than “probable”.
    • It’s a welcome development since the threat level was lifted to “high” in the
      immediate aftermath of the Christchurch terror attack in 2019.

Changing patterns of extremism

    • But right now, at least publicly, the SIS is not aware of any specific or credible attack planning.
    • And there are those motivated by identity (with white supremacist extremism the dominant strand) or faith (such as support for Islamic State, a decreasing and “very small number”).

Espionage and cyber-security risks

    • There also seems to be a revival of the espionage and spying cultures last seen during the Cold War.
    • There is already the first military case of espionage before the courts, and the SIS is aware of individuals on the margins of government being cultivated and offered financial and other incentives to provide sensitive information.
    • The SIS says espionage operations by foreign intelligence agencies against New Zealand, both at home and abroad, are persistent, opportunistic and increasingly wide ranging.

Russia, Iran and China

    • The SIS identifies Russia, Iran and China as the three offenders.
    • We see these activities carried out by groups and individuals linked to the intelligence arm of the People’s Republic of China.
    • We see these activities carried out by groups and individuals linked to the intelligence arm of the People’s Republic of China.

Hipkins meets Xi Jinping: behind the handshakes, NZ walks an increasingly fine line with China

Retrieved on: 
Tuesday, June 27, 2023
State, COVID-19, Chris Hipkins, Calendar, Policy, Solomon Islands, Public Service Commission (New Zealand), SIS, Public Service Commission, AUKUS, G7, Security Intelligence Service, Assertiveness, Island, International law, Security Bureau, GCSB, Film industry, Cryptocurrency, Shipbuilding, New

The Chinese leader said he placed “great importance” on the relationship with New Zealand.

Key Points: 
  • The Chinese leader said he placed “great importance” on the relationship with New Zealand.
  • Both businesslike, Hipkins made sure to stress his country was open for business too.
  • There might even be scope for cooperation over China’s position on a political settlement of the war in Ukraine.

Claim and counter-claim

    • So New Zealand walks a fine line with China, and beneath the diplomatic niceties there is a growing fault line.
    • Mahuta has said the conversation was merely “robust”, but there’s no denying China’s combativeness over criticism or threat.
    • More recently, China blocked Lithuanian exports after the tiny nation allowed Taiwan to establish a de-facto embassy there.

Security and circumspection

    • In 2018, New Zealand’s Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) stated it had “established links” between the Chinese Ministry of State Security and a global campaign of commercial intellectual property theft.
    • New Zealand’s Security Intelligence Service (SIS) has also recently noted agents from a “small number of foreign states” were becoming “increasingly aggressive”, but chose not to identify the culprits.
    • Read more:
      Approach with caution: why NZ should be wary of buying into the AUKUS security pact

NATO and AUKUS

    • How long the diplomatic tightrope can be walked is an open question, given the prime minister’s forthcoming attendance at the NATO summit in Lithuania in July, and the pending decision on AUKUS.
    • And while it’s never explicit, AUKUS is a response to the perceived threat of China’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
    • Despite its own rapid militarisation, the Chinese government has condemned AUKUS as reflecting a “Cold War mentality” that involves a “path of error and danger”.