Out of the shadows: why making NZ’s security threat assessment public for the first time is the right move
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Friday, August 11, 2023
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Today’s release of the threat assessment by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) is the final piece in a defence and security puzzle that marks a genuine shift towards more open and public discussion of these crucial policy areas.
Key Points:
- Today’s release of the threat assessment by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service (SIS) is the final piece in a defence and security puzzle that marks a genuine shift towards more open and public discussion of these crucial policy areas.
- Together with July’s strategic foreign policy assessment from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the national security strategy released last week, it rounds out the picture of New Zealand’s place in a fast-evolving geopolitical landscape.
Low threat of violent extremism
- If there is good news in the SIS assessment, it is that the threat of violent extremism is still considered “low”.
- That means no change since the threat level was reassessed last year, with a terror attack considered “possible” rather than “probable”.
- It’s a welcome development since the threat level was lifted to “high” in the
immediate aftermath of the Christchurch terror attack in 2019.
Changing patterns of extremism
- But right now, at least publicly, the SIS is not aware of any specific or credible attack planning.
- And there are those motivated by identity (with white supremacist extremism the dominant strand) or faith (such as support for Islamic State, a decreasing and “very small number”).
Espionage and cyber-security risks
- There also seems to be a revival of the espionage and spying cultures last seen during the Cold War.
- There is already the first military case of espionage before the courts, and the SIS is aware of individuals on the margins of government being cultivated and offered financial and other incentives to provide sensitive information.
- The SIS says espionage operations by foreign intelligence agencies against New Zealand, both at home and abroad, are persistent, opportunistic and increasingly wide ranging.
Russia, Iran and China
- The SIS identifies Russia, Iran and China as the three offenders.
- We see these activities carried out by groups and individuals linked to the intelligence arm of the People’s Republic of China.
- We see these activities carried out by groups and individuals linked to the intelligence arm of the People’s Republic of China.