Islamic State

From Reagan to Obama, presidents have left office with ‘strategic regret’ − will leaving troops in Iraq and Syria be Biden or Trump’s?

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

U.S. presidents often leave the White House expressing “strategic regret” over perceived foreign policy failures.

Key Points:

U.S. presidents often leave the White House expressing “strategic regret” over perceived foreign policy failures.
Lyndon Johnson was haunted by the Vietnam War.
Bill Clinton regretted the failed intervention in Somalia and how the “Black Hawk Down” incident contributed to his administration’s inaction over the Rwandan genocide.
Barack Obama said the Libyan intervention was “the worst mistake” of his presidency.

Another Beirut?

The Middle East has entered a volatile period.
The threat to U.S. personnel in the region takes the form of both the Islamic State group, which is intent on hitting Western targets, and the increased risk from a network of Iran-linked militants seeking to avenge what they see as U.S. complicity in Israel’s siege of Gaza.
If any mass-casualty attack on U.S. forces were to occur, the occupant of the White House would face two conditions that have left departing presidents experiencing strategic regret: the loss of American lives on their watch and the prospect of being drawn into a widening war.

Today’s situation in Iraq and Syria is eerily similar in many ways to the circumstances Reagan faced in Beirut, but potentially far more dangerous.
Like Lebanon then, U.S. troops are in Iraq and Syria for secondary, as opposed to primary, security objectives.
According to a recent Pentagon report, that threat remains exceedingly weak today for the United States.
While Reagan was unaware of the high exposure of U.S. Marines in 1983, the danger U.S. troops face today in Iraq and Syria is abundantly clear.
The Jordan attack aside, U.S. service members have already suffered significant injuries from missiles, including dozens of traumatic brain injuries.

Fueling hubris

Some might consider this concern about “another Beirut” overblown. After all, proxy attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have dropped since the attack in Jordan in late January, giving the impression that deterrence is now working after big U.S. retaliatory strikes in February.

The 1983 Marine Corps barracks bombing was preceded a few months earlier by a smaller, yet still deadly, bombing at the U.S. embassy in Beirut.
In the lull that followed the embassy attack, Reagan officials didn’t pursue a strategically smart rethink of U.S. policy or consider troop reductions.
In short, lulls in violence like today in Iraq and Syria can fuel hubris and provide a dangerous sense of false security and a determination to stay the course.
As research shows, “see, I told you so” is a powerful rhetorical tool in circumstances like this.

The ghosts of history

But anything too large risks inviting the kind of response that could lead to lasting and devastating outcomes.
Imagine, for example, a scenario in which a U.S. president is provoked into striking Iran following repeated attacks by Tehran’s proxies on U.S. troops.
The result would be an expansion of – and further U.S. involvement in – the Middle East conflict.
Their experiences and the ghosts of history serve as a warning when it comes to U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq now.

Charles Walldorf received funding from Charles Koch Foundation.

Charles Walldorf is a Visiting Fellow, Defense Priorities

Global Audience Hears Stirring Stories from Persecuted Christians During The Voice of the Martyrs' "I Am N" Event

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Arabic, Islam, Muslims, Lord, Hope, Life, VOM, Islamic State, Survivor, Taliban, Human voice, Martyr, ISIS, Courage

During the online event, Hassan and two other survivors of Muslim extremism shared their inspiring stories of persecution with a vast, global audience.

Key Points:

During the online event, Hassan and two other survivors of Muslim extremism shared their inspiring stories of persecution with a vast, global audience.
Christians around the world began displaying the Arabic letter " ن" to raise awareness of the persecution, show solidarity and encourage prayer.
VOM's virtual event featured Hassan, who was arrested in 2015 in Sudan for providing aid to a persecuted Christian.
The "I Am N" Virtual Event was broadcast in English with worship led by Steven Curtis Chapman and in Spanish with worship led by Alex Campos.

Jihadism in Mozambique: southern African forces are leaving with mixed results

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

Mozambican security forces will then take full responsibility for security.

Key Points:

Mozambican security forces will then take full responsibility for security.
We asked military science and defence expert Thomas Mandrup, who has published a paper on the situation after a recent ground visit, to evaluate the mission.

Why did the military mission in Mozambique intervene?

SADC member states had been putting pressure on the Mozambican government to allow a regional military intervention to prevent the insurgency from spreading in the region.
Their fear was that Islamic State (Isis), to which the extremists are affiliated, would get a bridgehead from which they could expand their operations.
Read more:
Offshore gas finds offered major promise for Mozambique: what went wrong
The SADC decided to deploy a combined force of 2,210 troops.

How successful was the mission? What were the challenges?

The SADC military mission had several main strategic objectives:
neutralising the extremists
assisting the Mozambique Defence Armed Forces in planning and undertaking operations
training and advising the Mozambique forces.

An internal assessment report was presented at the July 2023 meeting of the then SADC leadership troika (Zambia, Namibia and South Africa).
It concluded that the SADC mission had achieved its objective of reducing the insurgents’ capacity and assisting the Mozambican military.
In addition, 570,000 internally displaced people had returned to their homes by August 2023, as the security situation had improved.
Samim has found it difficult to fulfil its mandate of training the Mozambican force because they couldn’t identify their training needs.

What lessons can be learnt from the operation?

And it must understand the area and situation it’s being deployed into.
The Mozambican government and military have not always worked with the mission.

why was its response so slow and insufficient?
why did it oppose regional involvement for so long?
why has the SADC mission at times found it difficult to strike at the core of the insurgents?

During my recent fieldwork several interviewees even suggested that a faction of Frelimo had at times supported the insurgents.
Frelimo has strong ties to the region going back to the war of independence against Portugal, and later the civil war between Renamo and Frelimo.
The local population considered it less effective than, for instance, the Rwandan force, which was also better equipped and trained.

What needs to happen

The risk is that the extremists will once again take a stronger foothold there since the issues that led to the conflict in the first place remain unresolved.
In addition, the Mozambican government and its security force have shown only limited signs of improved capacity.

Thomas Mandrup receives funding from the Carlsberg Foundation

‘America is the mother of terrorism’: why the Houthis’ new slogan is important for understanding the Middle East

Retrieved on:

Monday, February 12, 2024

Oxygen, Ship, Violence, Plausible deniability, Houthi movement, Terrorism, Defence Intelligence Agency (India), Central Intelligence Agency, Frustration, CIA, Islam, Death, Jews, Terror, Al-Qaeda, Islamic State, Tourism

As their attacks have intensified, the group’s slogan (or sarkha, meaning “scream”) has also gained notoriety.

Key Points:

As their attacks have intensified, the group’s slogan (or sarkha, meaning “scream”) has also gained notoriety.
Banners bearing the sarkha dot the streets in areas of Yemen under Houthi control and are brandished by supporters at their rallies.
Read more:
Why US strikes will only embolden the Houthis, not stop their attacks on ships in the Red Sea

Terror groups as a tool of the state

Some experts argue this may create more “terrorists” than it kills.
However, there are other layers to these slogans that are less intuitively understood by a Western audience.
For many in the region, groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State function, in part, as “tools” that Western-backed authoritarian leaders use to maintain their power.

releasedal-Qaeda prisoners so they could regroup
facilitated al-Qaeda attacks against local and foreign targets
misdirected US strikes to kill political opponents rather than al-Qaeda leaders.

As a result, many Yemenis wouldn’t view al-Qaeda or Islamic State as being completely separate from those in charge of the country.
In the West, these groups are framed as rebels seeking to overturn the state.
But across the region, many believe these relationships defy simple categories like “state versus insurgent” or “friend versus enemy” because terror groups can be both at once.

Why the West’s policies are backfiring

When I asked residents about the this, they appeared to see the statement as a banal declaration of fact.
(Like the banners bearing the sarkha, the murals used a red barbed-wire font for the word “America”.)
Of course, the violence the Houthis use to sustain their own power is an irony that should not be lost.
Even so, their messaging taps into widespread views about the drivers of regional violence that some Western observers have long dismissed.

Sarah G. Phillips receives funding from the Australian Research Council (FT200100539). She is a Non-Resident Fellow with the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies (Yemen).

How Iran controls a network of armed groups to pursue its regional strategy

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

But when it did, it hit at least 85 targets across Iraq and Syria.

Key Points:

But when it did, it hit at least 85 targets across Iraq and Syria.
The Pentagon was careful not to directly attack Iran itself, but it targeted Iranian-backed groups which have been conducting raids on US military assets in the region since before Hamas launched its attack on Israel on October 7.
But who are these groups that Iran can rely on to act in its interests and how much of a threat do they pose to regional security?

It wants to remove the US from the Middle East and to replace it as the guarantor of regional security.
And it refuses to recognise the state of Israel, instead working with Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah to pressure the Jewish state.

Quds Force

The Quds Force is part of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and is the IRGC’s primary vehicle for foreign affairs.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, Quds is largely responsible for providing training, weapons, money and military advice to a range of groups in the so-called “Axis of Resistance”.

Syria

Quds activities in Syria are reportedly overseen by Khalil Zahedi, nicknamed Abu Mahdi al-Zahdi.
Iran’s principal aims in Syria are to keep the Assad regime in power, maximise Iranian influence, protect Shia minorities and reduce and – if possible – eliminate the US presence in Syria.

Iraq

In Iraq, since the US invasion, Iran-backed armed groups come under an umbrella organisation called the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) or Quwwāt al-Ḥashd ash-Shaʿbī.
The PMF claims to have as many as 230,000 fighters, mainly Shia.
The same year PMF’s political wing contested elections in Iraq, coming second in the poll.

Lebanon

Hezbollah (Party of God) was formed in 1982 to fight against the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
While heavily involved both politically and economically in Lebanon, Hezbollah is also active throughout the region, doing Iran’s business rather than looking after Lebanese interests.

Major headache for the west

Many of these groups now wield significant political influence in the countries in which they are embedded, so confronting them is not simply a military exercise.
And, as the dramatic rise in tensions in the region following the assault by Hamas on Israel (also planned with Iranian help) suggests, Iran is capable of fomenting trouble for the west almost at will across the region.

Christoph Bluth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Middle East crisis: US airstrikes against Iran-backed armed groups explained

Retrieved on:

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Policy, Intelligence, Weapon, Hezbollah, Quds Force, Hamas, Islamic State, Death, Islam, Aggression, Face, Calibration, Arms industry

US airstrikes on Iran-backed armed groups on February 2 have been anticipated for some time.

Key Points:

US airstrikes on Iran-backed armed groups on February 2 have been anticipated for some time.
Since the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, US forces in the Middle East have been targeted more than 150 times.
These attacks, mainly on US bases in Iraq and Syria caused minimal damage thanks to US air defence capabilities.

Militant groups targeted

There are about 40 militant groups in the region backed by Iran.
These include high-profile groups such as Hamas, which carried out the October 7 attack in Israel as well as Hezbollah, which has been engaged in cross-border fire with Israel on the Lebanon border since October.

Iran provides a mix of training, intelligence, funding and weapons to groups within its self-described “axis of resistance”. But Tehran does not fully control the militias, who operate with varying degrees of autonomy, and who might be better seen as affiliates than proxies.

US political choices

With the election year, Biden is also facing additional scrutiny from home on his foreign policy decisions.
The calibrated airstrikes of the weekend will probably attract further criticism from both sides – for going too far or not far enough.

Gaza conflict

But it’s undeniable that the crisis in Gaza has emboldened armed groups around the region, who have repeatedly used the war to justify their actions.
The US, Egypt and Qatar have been mediating between Israel and Hamas to negotiate a deal that would see a halt of military operations in Gaza in return for a phased release of hostages.

Preventing regional war

This suggests that Tehran – like Washington – is still keen to avoid a head-to-head conflict with the US.
For the Biden administration, the aim of preventing a regional war is still the right objective, even – perhaps especially – in the face of rising tensions.

Julie M Norman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

After 3 months of devastation in the Israel-Hamas war, is anyone 'winning'?

Retrieved on:

Sunday, January 7, 2024

His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.

Key Points:

His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.
Some 85% of Gazans have also been displaced and a quarter of the population is facing a famine, according to the United Nations.

Israel: limited success …

Israeli society is divided between those who want to prioritise negotiations to release the hostages and those who want to prioritise the elimination of Hamas.
Israel achieved an important symbolic success with the apparent targeted killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut on January 2.
Israel still has US support in the UN Security Council, which has managed to pass only one toothless resolution since the war began.

…and facing a ‘day after’ conundrum

US President Joe Biden prefers a Gaza government led by a reformed Palestinian Authority, but Netanyahu has rejected this and has not articulated an alternative plan.
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant this week outlined what seems to be his own plan for Gaza, involving governance by unspecified Palestinian authorities.
Whether or not that’s a fair judgement, it’s clear that internal divisions and indecision within his government are hindering Israel’s prosecution of the war.

Hamas – still standing

Hamas’ main achievement is that it is still standing.
To win, the militant group does not have to defeat Israel – it needs merely to survive the IDF onslaught.
Opinion polling also shows support for Hamas has risen from 12% to 44% in the West Bank and from 38% to 42% in Gaza in the past three months.

United States – weakness in dealing with Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken failed in his effort to persuade Israel to end the war by the start of the new year.
Moreover, divisions in the US may hurt Biden in the lead–up to the presidential election in November.
Republicans, taking their cue from Trump, are prioritising support for Israel and stopping the flow of migrants across the US-Mexico border.

United Nations – irrelevant

The UN has also failed in its mission of maintaining world peace. The only Security Council resolution on the war meant nothing, as Russia was pleased to point out. The recent UN General Assembly resolution illustrated Israel’s growing isolation, but has done nothing to change the course of the war. UN Secretary–General Antonio Guterres has been powerless to influence either Israel or Hamas.

Iran – watching for opportunities

But it takes its orders from Tehran, which still shows no sign of wanting to become directly involved in the war.
The bombings have been claimed by the Islamic State, which will likely make Iran more focused on its internal security than on assisting Hamas.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Retired Army General Joseph Votel Joins AeroVironment’s Board of Directors

Retrieved on:

Monday, December 4, 2023

AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAV) today announced that General Joseph L. Votel recently joined its Board of Directors, following his appointment as a Class III director at a meeting of AeroVironment’s Board on November 29.

Key Points:

AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAV) today announced that General Joseph L. Votel recently joined its Board of Directors, following his appointment as a Class III director at a meeting of AeroVironment’s Board on November 29.
The addition of General Votel brings the Board’s current composition to eight individuals, seven of whom (including Votel) are independent.
Following his retirement from military service, General Votel served as President & CEO of Business Executives for National Security (BENS), remains a member of the Defense Business Board and Council on Foreign Relations, and has advised multiple companies and venture funds.
General Votel graduated from the United States Military Academy in 1980 and earned master’s degrees from the U.S. Army Command and Staff College and the Army War College.

Narges Mohammadi: 2023 Nobel peace laureate on hunger strike after being denied medical treatment over hijab ban

Retrieved on:

Thursday, November 9, 2023

Narges Mohammadi, the recipient of the 2023 Nobel peace prize for her long fight against the oppression of women in Iran, is reported to have started a hunger strike.

Key Points:

Narges Mohammadi, the recipient of the 2023 Nobel peace prize for her long fight against the oppression of women in Iran, is reported to have started a hunger strike.
Mohammadi is serving multiple sentences in Iran’s infamous Evin prison on charges that include spreading propaganda against the state.
Her rights campaigns were characterised by the Nobel prize committee as a “brave struggle [that] has come with tremendous personal costs”.
According to data gathered by non-profit organisation Iran Human Rights, five protesters and 13 women have been executed in 2023.

Women, life, freedom

Social media – among women in Iran and worldwide – has been buzzing with the hashtag.
Women were at the forefront of the mass protests that led to the downfall of the last shah of Iran.
In 1983, four years after the revolution, the Islamic authorities passed a law making the wearing of the hijab compulsory.
But those who stayed increasingly used newly developing digital tools such as social media to campaign and share stories of harassment and discrimination.

Hunger strike

Narges Mohammadi has become a key figure in the women’s rights movement in Iran.
Despite having trained as an engineer, she took up journalism and wrote regular criticisms of the treatment of women, as well as the the country’s poor human rights record in general.

As an inmate in the notorious Evin prison in Tehran, she has led women’s resistance in support of the woman, life, freedom campaign.
According to a statement from her family released by the Free Narges Mohammadi campaign, she began her hunger strike in response to two issues: “The Islamic Republic’s policy of delaying and neglecting medical care for sick inmates, resulting in the loss of the health and lives of individuals.
A 17-year-old girl, Armita Geravand, died in October after receiving a head wound while riding Tehran’s metro without a headscarf.
In the fight against the global rise of authoritarianism, the key might lie in supporting women’s rights and grassroots feminist activism.

Hind Elhinnawy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

In Gaza, the underground war between Israeli troops and Hamas fighters in the tunnels is set to begin

Retrieved on:

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

When that happens, Israeli troops will begin a dangerous new phase of the military campaign against Hamas fighters in a densely populated urban terrain that includes closely packed buildings above ground and a troubling maze of tunnels below.

Key Points:

When that happens, Israeli troops will begin a dangerous new phase of the military campaign against Hamas fighters in a densely populated urban terrain that includes closely packed buildings above ground and a troubling maze of tunnels below.
But on Oct. 29, 2023, the Israel Defense Forces said its troops had attacked Hamas gunmen in a tunnel and killed Hamas fighters who emerged from a tunnel to attack their positions in northwest Gaza.
And on Nov. 5, 2023, Israel reported that three Hamas fighters emerged from a hidden tunnel and ambushed Israeli troops behind what its forces had thought were the front lines.

Hamas plans a trap below ground

From news reports, researchers and both Israeli and Hamas sources, it seems clear that Hamas has systematically built a complex underground city fortified with strong defenses beneath Gaza.
Hamas fighters have reportedly lined the tunnels with transport rails to move rockets to locations where they can be launched from firing pads concealed by trap doors.
Even if only some of those claims are true, it is clear that Hamas has built a formidable subterranean fortress beneath Gaza City that is meant to be a trap for the Israelis as well as a refuge for Hamas.

Israel’s plans to defeat the tunnel fortress

In 2013, for example, Israeli troops unearthed a particularly large invasion tunnel that began nearly three-quarters of a mile (1 km) inside the Gaza border, and was 72 feet (22 meters) deep.
It burrowed under the border wall and was detected nearly 60 feet (18 meters) below the surface 1,000 feet (300 meters) inside Israel.
In 2014, Israeli troops fought underground during a 51-day ground invasion of Gaza waged to destroy some of the tunnels.
During that campaign, Israeli troops were surprised by the requirements of tunnel warfare, according to an analysis by the Rand Corporation think tank.
The Samur unit has been working for years to develop sensors that can detect underground tunnels, booby traps and explosives.

Brian Glyn Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.