Benjamin Netanyahu

Israel hits back at Iran: How domestic politics is determining Israeli actions

Retrieved on:

金曜日, 4月 19, 2024

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Notably, Israel’s strike against Iran appears to have been more symbolic than substantive.

Key Points:

Notably, Israel’s strike against Iran appears to have been more symbolic than substantive.
Nevertheless, the overnight Israeli strike is the latest escalation in tensions between the two countries.

Reputations at stake

To do otherwise would have damaged the Iranian government’s reputation among both its allies and its citizens.
But the form that Iranian retaliation took is a key indication of Iran’s intentions.
Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system and U.S. military bases in the region made the likely impact of Iran’s attack minimal.

The proxy dilemma

Since the Iranian Revolution, Iran, through the Quds Force and its predecessors, has actively courted several proxy groups in the Middle East to increase its strategic influence.
Hezbollah came into existence in response to Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon in the 1980s, and received extensive support from Iran.
While these proxy groups have increased Iran’s political influence and strategic options in the Middle East, they can simultaneously be a burden for the country’s leadership because they aren’t under Iran’s complete control.
For Iran, this presents a strategic dilemma.

A coalition of many

The 2022 elections returned a fractured Knesset, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was only able to form a coalition government that included several far-right parties.
The small size of his majority meant that far-right partners were able to demand concessions to support his government.
The government’s inability to negotiate a release for the remaining hostages held by Hamas remains a festering wound in Israeli politics.
National Unity’s leader, Benny Gantz, formed a war cabinet with Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant to direct the war effort.

Netanyahu’s hand forced?

The smaller far-right parties in Netanyahu’s coalition that are outside the war cabinet, however, likely forced the prime minister’s hand.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the ultra-nationalist Otzma Yehudit party, has stated that Israel needs to “go crazy” in its response.

What’s next?

It eliminated a leader of the Quds Force, and Iran’s retaliation did not manage to breach the defences of Israel or its allies.
Now, the world waits to see if Israel’s latest strike against Iran leads to a broader regional escalation.

James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons programme is unlikely – here’s why

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木曜日, 4月 18, 2024

Iran’s attack involved around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles, all directed against Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Key Points:

Iran’s attack involved around 170 drones, over 30 cruise missiles and more than 120 ballistic missiles, all directed against Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
But various options have been canvassed, including a strike of some sort against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.
It has assassinated a number of nuclear scientists over the years, and launched a number of attacks on the country’s nuclear facilities.
Believed to have been created through collaboration between US and Israeli intelligence, the Stuxnet malware was designed to severely disrupt centrifuge operations at Natanz and is thought to have set back Iran’s nuclear weapons programme by years.

Iran’s nuclear weapons history

The country developed a civil nuclear programme under the late Shah, and in 1970 ratified the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, committing the country not to possess nor develop nuclear weapons.
During the late 1990s and early 2000s, Iran pursued a secret nuclear weapons development project, known as the Amad Plan.

But it is thought that by then, Iran had the capacility to build a small and fairly crude nuclear device.
A great deal of what we know about the development of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme stems from the 2018 Mossad raid.
This revealed that work on weapons development was not entirely halted, and that Iran continued to work on improving its nuclear weapons capability.
It has resumed operations at nuclear facilities previously prohibited under the terms of the agreement and, since February 2021, has prevented the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from effectively monitoring its nuclear sites.

Can an Iranian ‘bomb’ be prevented?

First, Iran possesses the requisite expertise to develop nuclear weapons, which cannot be eradicated through bombing raids.
While targeting Iranian facilities would temporarily hinder the programme, any setbacks would likely be short-lived.
Destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz would be essential, but accessing these facilities would necessitate a significant number of airstrikes penetrating deep into Iranian territory, while circumventing or overpowering its air defence systems.

Christoph Bluth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Gaza update: the questionable precision and ethics of Israel’s AI warfare machine

Retrieved on:

木曜日, 4月 18, 2024

The IDF says it has been working on information gleaned from questioning Palestinian fighters captured in the fighting.

Key Points:

The IDF says it has been working on information gleaned from questioning Palestinian fighters captured in the fighting.
According to a report in the Jerusalem Post on April 17, the Palestinian fighters were hiding out in schools in the area.
The investigation, by online Israeli magazines +927 and Local Call examined the use of an AI programme called “Lavender”.

It’s important to note that the IDF is not the only military to be working with AI in this way.
But one function of the way the IDF is harnessing Lavender in this current conflict is its use alongside other systems.
Read more:
Israel accused of using AI to target thousands in Gaza, as killer algorithms outpace international law

The Iranian dimension

Away from the charnel house that is the Gaza Strip, the focus has been on the aftermath of Israel’s strike on the Iranian embassy in Baghdad on April 1.
As is his wont, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed revenge, declaring: “The Zionist regime will be punished by the hands of our brave men.
And this was very much how it was to turn out when Iran’s drones and missiles flew last weekend.
Read more:
Could Israel's strike against the Iranian embassy in Damascus escalate into a wider regional war?
Read more:
Why Iran's failed attack on Israel may well turn out to be a strategic success

The nuclear option?

One of the possibilities being widely canvassed is that Israel could mount some kind of attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. This has been revitalised in the years since Donald Trump pulled the US out of the deal negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama.

He walks us through the history of Iran’s nuclear programme, a story littered with the bodies of Iranian nuclear scientists and the wreckage of its nuclear facilities thanks to fiendish cyberattacks such as the Stuxnet virus developed by Israel and the US that was launched against Iran in 2010.
Since Trump quit the nuclear deal, Iran has gone full-steam ahead in ramping up its nuclear weapons programme, while reportedly hiding its key installations in deep underground bunkers that are thought impossible to destroy from the air.

Zomi Frankcom is a tragic victim in the stalemated Israel-Hamas war, but don’t expect Australia’s approach to change much

Retrieved on:

金曜日, 4月 5, 2024

Talleyrand was an archetypal exponent of realpolitik, and history provides numerous examples of the validity of his remark.

Key Points:

Talleyrand was an archetypal exponent of realpolitik, and history provides numerous examples of the validity of his remark.
One is the prolonged US bombing of North Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos during the Vietnam war in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
Though the ministry is managed by Hamas, the World Health Organization describes its data collection as “credible and well developed”.
Israel claims 13,000 of those killed were Hamas fighters, though it has not said how it calculated that figure.

Claims of poor coordination refuted

The IDF and defence ministry claimed the strikes on the World Central Kitchen vehicles followed misidentification and poor coordination at night in complex war conditions because of suspicion an armed militant was travelling with them.
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz, citing defence sources, has refuted these claims.
The army’s killing of seven aid workers in the Gaza Strip on Monday night “stemmed from poor discipline among field commanders, not a lack of coordination between the army and aid organisations”.

How will this affect Australia’s position?

Albanese said he expressed Australia’s outrage at Frankcom’s death and said he wanted “full accountability”.
He added that he made clear Australia believes humanitarian assistance must reach people in Gaza unimpeded and in large quantities.
It also suggested Netanyahu has a closer eye on his political standing in Israel than the international reaction to the deaths.

Don’t expect much change

The reality is not much is likely to change in terms of Australia’s dealings with Israel.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong has already made clear no Australian military equipment has been sold to Israel since the start of the Gaza war.
Australia’s defence exports to Israel are in any case miniscule – A$13 million over the past five years.
Wong has said many times Israel has the right to defend itself but the way it does so matters.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Gaza update: pressure mounts on Israel’s allies to stop supplying the weapons to prevent genocide

Retrieved on:

金曜日, 4月 5, 2024

“If you aim at the driver’s side, you will hit the driver full-on,” Chris Lincoln-Jones told the newspaper.

Key Points:

“If you aim at the driver’s side, you will hit the driver full-on,” Chris Lincoln-Jones told the newspaper.
It is also thought probable that they were launched from a Hermes drone, made by Elbit Systems – also an Israeli manufacturer.
The letter, which the newspaper reports amounts to a legal opinion, says UK arms sales to Israel breach international law and must stop.
One obvious way to do that is to stop selling them weapons.

Now many of the aid agencies operating in Gaza have suspended their activities. As Stavropoulou and Schiffling write here, the difficulty of getting aid to the population threatens to make the famine that is engulfing the Gaza Strip worse than it already is.

Read more:
More than 200 aid workers have been killed in Gaza, making famine more likely

UN resolution

We spoke with John Strawson, an expert in Israeli politics at the University of East London, who kindly answered our questions about the politics of the situation, especially the US decision not to use its veto to block the resolution after decades of faithfully supporting successive Israeli governments in the security council.
Expert Q&A
Given that Netanyahu has indicated that Israel will not abide by security council resolution 2728 – and the US has said that it’s a non-binding resolution in any case – what does international law say about the enforceability of US resolutions?
There appears no reason why resolution 2728 is not legally binding and, if push comes to shove, the security council could order that UN members “take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security”.

Starvation behind the ‘Iron Wall’

According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry the total has now passed 33,000 people.
Nnenna Awah, whose PhD research at Sheffield Hallam University is in optimising food supply chains, walks us through the different classifications of food insecurity.
Kaplan says it is the embodiment of Israel’s “Iron Wall” ideology, developed even before statehood was declared in 1948.
Kaplan says that Jabotinsky’s ideological heirs in Likud (including Netanyahu) have rejected more liberal Israeli compromise positions ever since.

Netanyahu promises Albanese a full investigation into Australian aid worker’s death, as Israel accepts responsibility

Retrieved on:

水曜日, 4月 3, 2024

Benjamin Netanyahu, Family, News, UN, Death, United Nations Security Council

Albanese also used the conversation to express Australia’s concern about a potential ground invasion of the Gazan city of Rafah and the consequences for civilians there.

Key Points:

Albanese also used the conversation to express Australia’s concern about a potential ground invasion of the Gazan city of Rafah and the consequences for civilians there.
Netanyahu on Wednesday morning returned the call Albanese had sought to demand an explanation about the death of the Australian.
Albanese told his news conference: “The Israeli government has accepted responsibility for this and Prime Minister Netanyahu conveyed his condolences to the family of Zomi Frankcom and to Australia as a result of this tragedy”.
Albanese said Netanyahu had committed to a thorough investigation.

Netanyahu’s position becoming more uncertain as Israeli PM rejects Hamas deal to end war

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木曜日, 2月 8, 2024

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Claiming that an Israeli victory in Gaza is “within reach”, Netanyahu has vowed to fight on until Hamas is completely destroyed.

Key Points:

Claiming that an Israeli victory in Gaza is “within reach”, Netanyahu has vowed to fight on until Hamas is completely destroyed.
In response, Hamas proposed a sweeping three-stage plan aimed at ending the war completely.
During the second phase, Israeli forces would leave Gaza completely as the remaining Israeli hostages are exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.
Hamas’ plan also envisages ongoing negotiations to end the war completely, with a view to these concluding by the end of phase three.

Gaza update: Netanyahu knocks back Hamas peace plan while the prospect of mass famine looms ever larger

Retrieved on:

木曜日, 2月 8, 2024

Unfortunately for many of the 1.7 million people reportedly displaced by Israel’s four-month onslaught in Gaza, this is where more than a million of them have taken refuge, according to the latest estimates.

Key Points:

Unfortunately for many of the 1.7 million people reportedly displaced by Israel’s four-month onslaught in Gaza, this is where more than a million of them have taken refuge, according to the latest estimates.
Insisting that “the day after [the war] is the day after Hamas – all of Hamas”, Netanyahu said he intended to press on until Israel had achieved “total victory”.
His personal approval ratings are abysmal – only 15% of Israelis in a recent survey said they thought he should keep his job after the war ends.

Despite Netanyahu’s wholesale rejection of the notion of Palestinian statehood, both the US and UK have said they are considering the possibility of recognising Palestine after the conflict ends.
The UK foreign secretary, David Cameron, said such a move would be “absolutely vital for the long-term peace and security of the region”.
Read more:
UK and US may recognise state of Palestine after Gaza war – what this important step would mean
So what is the two-state solution?
Read more:
Explainer: what is the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

War crime and punishment

The ICJ ordered Israel to take steps to prevent genocidal actions in Gaza, to punish incitement to genocide, to allow Gaza’s people access to humanitarian aid, and to preserve and collect any evidence of war crimes committed during the conflict.
He writes that it has been a tactic of war for centuries, and that sieges and blockades remain part of the arsenal of armed conflict.
It is also a collective punishment – something explicitly banned under international humanitarian law.
Read more:
Gaza: weaponisation of food has been used in conflicts for centuries – but it hasn't always resulted in victory

There goes the neighbourhood

In Iran, the Islamic Republic presides over a parlous economy and considerable public unrest as the “woman, life, freedom” mass protests continue.
In the White House, meanwhile, Joe Biden wants a telegenic show of US force without embroiling his country in a major land war.
Read more:
How Iran controls a network of armed groups to pursue its regional strategy
Gaza Update is available as a fortnightly email newsletter.

Explainer: what is the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

Retrieved on:

火曜日, 2月 6, 2024

However, the two-state solution is now further away than it has ever been, with some even proclaiming it “dead”.

Key Points:

However, the two-state solution is now further away than it has ever been, with some even proclaiming it “dead”.
But what actually is the two-state solution and why do so many see this as the only resolution to the conflict?

What is the two-state solution?

The first attempt at creating side-by-side states occurred before the independence of Israel in 1948.
More than 700,000 Palestinians were displaced from the new state of Israel, fleeing to the West Bank, Gaza and surrounding Arab states.
This would mean the new Palestinian state would consist of the West Bank prior to Israeli settlement, and Gaza.
How Jerusalem would be split, if at all, has been a significant point of contention in this plan.

Why is statehood so important?

The kind of statehood referred to in the two-state solution, known as state sovereignty in international politics, is the authority given to the government of a nation within and over its borders.
The vast majority of people on Earth live in or legally fall under the jurisdiction of a sovereign state.
More than 160 members of the UN now recognise Israel; those who do not include Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Indonesia.
As such, the self-determination of Palestinians through the creation of a sovereign state has been a cornerstone of Palestinian political action for decades.

The closest the two sides got – the Oslo Accords

Negotiations began largely as a result of Palestinian uprisings across the West Bank and Gaza.
In 1993, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and the head of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) Yasser Arafat met in Oslo and signed the first of two agreements called the Oslo Accords.
The Oslo II Accord was signed in 1995, detailing the subdivision of administrative areas in the occupied territories.
And over the next few decades, the two-state solution has only become harder to achieve for various reasons, including:

the rise of conservative governments in Israel and lack of effective political pressure from the US
the shrinking political influence of the Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas and the rise of Hamas in Gaza, which caused a political split between the two Palestinian territories
Hamas’ vows to annihilate Israel and refusal to recognise the Israeli state as legitimate
the continued growth of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which has turned the territory into an ever-shrinking series of small enclaves connected by military checkpoints
dwindling support among both Israelis and Palestinians for the model
continued political violence on both sides.
And of course there is Netanyahu – no individual has done more to undermine the two-state solution than the current Israeli leader and his party. In 2010, a leaked recording from 2001 came to light where Netanyahu claimed to have “de facto put an end to the Oslo accords”.

What alternatives are there?

There aren’t many alternatives and all of them have significant problems.
Although Arabs already make up around 20% of Israel’s current population, the one-state solution would not be politically feasible.
According to Zionist ideology, Israel must always remain a majority Jewish state and granting Palestinians citizenship in the occupied territories would undermine this.

Andrew Thomas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

After 3 months of devastation in the Israel-Hamas war, is anyone 'winning'?

Retrieved on:

日曜日, 1月 7, 2024

His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.

Key Points:

His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.
Some 85% of Gazans have also been displaced and a quarter of the population is facing a famine, according to the United Nations.

Israel: limited success …

Israeli society is divided between those who want to prioritise negotiations to release the hostages and those who want to prioritise the elimination of Hamas.
Israel achieved an important symbolic success with the apparent targeted killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut on January 2.
Israel still has US support in the UN Security Council, which has managed to pass only one toothless resolution since the war began.

…and facing a ‘day after’ conundrum

US President Joe Biden prefers a Gaza government led by a reformed Palestinian Authority, but Netanyahu has rejected this and has not articulated an alternative plan.
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant this week outlined what seems to be his own plan for Gaza, involving governance by unspecified Palestinian authorities.
Whether or not that’s a fair judgement, it’s clear that internal divisions and indecision within his government are hindering Israel’s prosecution of the war.

Hamas – still standing

Hamas’ main achievement is that it is still standing.
To win, the militant group does not have to defeat Israel – it needs merely to survive the IDF onslaught.
Opinion polling also shows support for Hamas has risen from 12% to 44% in the West Bank and from 38% to 42% in Gaza in the past three months.

United States – weakness in dealing with Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken failed in his effort to persuade Israel to end the war by the start of the new year.
Moreover, divisions in the US may hurt Biden in the lead–up to the presidential election in November.
Republicans, taking their cue from Trump, are prioritising support for Israel and stopping the flow of migrants across the US-Mexico border.

United Nations – irrelevant

The UN has also failed in its mission of maintaining world peace. The only Security Council resolution on the war meant nothing, as Russia was pleased to point out. The recent UN General Assembly resolution illustrated Israel’s growing isolation, but has done nothing to change the course of the war. UN Secretary–General Antonio Guterres has been powerless to influence either Israel or Hamas.

Iran – watching for opportunities

But it takes its orders from Tehran, which still shows no sign of wanting to become directly involved in the war.
The bombings have been claimed by the Islamic State, which will likely make Iran more focused on its internal security than on assisting Hamas.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.