Benjamin Netanyahu

After 3 months of devastation in the Israel-Hamas war, is anyone 'winning'?

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日曜日, 1月 7, 2024

His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.

Key Points:

His observation might well be applied to the tragedy we are witnessing in Gaza.
Some 85% of Gazans have also been displaced and a quarter of the population is facing a famine, according to the United Nations.

Israel: limited success …

Israeli society is divided between those who want to prioritise negotiations to release the hostages and those who want to prioritise the elimination of Hamas.
Israel achieved an important symbolic success with the apparent targeted killing of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut on January 2.
Israel still has US support in the UN Security Council, which has managed to pass only one toothless resolution since the war began.

…and facing a ‘day after’ conundrum

US President Joe Biden prefers a Gaza government led by a reformed Palestinian Authority, but Netanyahu has rejected this and has not articulated an alternative plan.
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant this week outlined what seems to be his own plan for Gaza, involving governance by unspecified Palestinian authorities.
Whether or not that’s a fair judgement, it’s clear that internal divisions and indecision within his government are hindering Israel’s prosecution of the war.

Hamas – still standing

Hamas’ main achievement is that it is still standing.
To win, the militant group does not have to defeat Israel – it needs merely to survive the IDF onslaught.
Opinion polling also shows support for Hamas has risen from 12% to 44% in the West Bank and from 38% to 42% in Gaza in the past three months.

United States – weakness in dealing with Israel

Secretary of State Antony Blinken failed in his effort to persuade Israel to end the war by the start of the new year.
Moreover, divisions in the US may hurt Biden in the lead–up to the presidential election in November.
Republicans, taking their cue from Trump, are prioritising support for Israel and stopping the flow of migrants across the US-Mexico border.

United Nations – irrelevant

The UN has also failed in its mission of maintaining world peace. The only Security Council resolution on the war meant nothing, as Russia was pleased to point out. The recent UN General Assembly resolution illustrated Israel’s growing isolation, but has done nothing to change the course of the war. UN Secretary–General Antonio Guterres has been powerless to influence either Israel or Hamas.

Iran – watching for opportunities

But it takes its orders from Tehran, which still shows no sign of wanting to become directly involved in the war.
The bombings have been claimed by the Islamic State, which will likely make Iran more focused on its internal security than on assisting Hamas.

Ian Parmeter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Israeli government riven with division over future of Gaza after far-right calls to expel Palestinians

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金曜日, 1月 5, 2024

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There has been considerable controversy over proposals from far-right members of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Key Points:

There has been considerable controversy over proposals from far-right members of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
The statement further claimed that Netanyahu had reassured the US that the proposal does not reflect government policy.
And it is also important to note that proposals to relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip were initially proposed by Israeli lawmakers considered to be more moderate.

‘West should welcome Gaza refugees’

They criticised the international community for not fulfilling “their moral imperative” to “help civilians caught in the crisis”.
She referred to Gaza as “a breeding ground for extremism” and called for the “voluntary resettlement” of Palestinians outside the Gaza Strip.

Return of the settlers?

In light of this, many believe that settling the land is an opportunity to fulfil God’s promise.
Following the 1967 and 1974 wars, they rejected those who believed returning land to the Arab countries would secure peace.
Instead they advocated for the establishment of Israeli settlements to ensure the land was never relinquished.
The movement was dealt a severe blow following the decision by former prime minister Ariel Sharon’s disengagement plan in 2005.

Deep divisions

An account in the Times of Israel said that the cabinet meeting at which Gallant outlined his proposal ended in acrimony, exposing the deep divisions in Netanyahu’s government.
Gallant’s proposal comes days before US secretary of state Antony Blinken is due to visit to discuss “transitioning to the next phase” of the war.
The proposal has been presented to the US administration, although it does not yet form official policy.

Leonie Fleischmann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

How Israel failed to learn from the Northern Ireland peace process

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水曜日, 1月 3, 2024

The Good Friday agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland a quarter of a century ago, provided a clear guide.

Key Points:

The Good Friday agreement which brought peace to Northern Ireland a quarter of a century ago, provided a clear guide.
They have to do what the negotiating teams, of which I was a part, did in Northern Ireland.
The problem is Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his ally, the United States of America, who have failed to apply the lessons of Northern Ireland to Middle East peacemaking.

How ‘peace polls’ work

The objective was to determine the precise points of common ground, where they existed, or effective compromise where it was needed for peacemaking.
So I always made a point of hand delivering the reports to Mitchell and the parties the day before they were published.
Through public opinion polls the people gained a seat at the negotiating table, and through a referendum the deal was made.

When it all went wrong

I had been in touch with Mitchell and met him in his office at the State Department.
At that time I had also been running peace polls in Sri Lanka with support from the Norwegians.
So I did not get the funding and Mitchell eventually resigned his post without achieving peace in May 2011.
But I had made all necessary preparations and contacts with all the parties to the conflict to make it work.
My pollster Mina Zemach was a good friend of Peres and had been his pollster when he led the Labour party.
Like Sinn Féin they had a legitimate grievance and said they would be happy to cooperate with the peace polls.

Misplaced optimism

In my optimism at the time, I thought perhaps that Clinton – if she became president – would send her husband to the Middle East as her special envoy.
Bill Clinton had got very close to making an agreement some years earlier with the “Clinton parameters”, but he ran out of time.
And then Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election to Donald Trump – and so we are where we are.
It is just as likely that my optimism was misplaced and that Clinton and possibly Joe Biden – who has always been a very strong supporter of Israel – did not want to oppose Netanyahu for domestic political reasons.

Colin John Irwin receives funding from: Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, Center for Democracy and Reconciliation in South East Europe, Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, OneVoice, Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (now FCDO), Economic and Social Research Council (UK ESRC), United Nations, InterPeace, Health and Welfare Canada, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), British Academy, Norwegian Peoples Aid, The Day After, No Peace Without Justice, US Department of State, Local Administrations Council Unit (Syria), Asia Foundation, Department for International Development (UK DFID), OpenAI, Atlantic Philanthropies, Universities: Dalhousie, Manitoba, Syracuse, Pennsylvania, Queens Belfast, Liverpool. Also member of the World Association of Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) which promotes freedom to publish public opinion polls and sets international professional standards.

Israel's highest court protects its power to curb government extremism − 3 essential reads

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火曜日, 1月 2, 2024

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That reform would have taken away from the Supreme Court the ability to review and limit the government’s actions.

Key Points:

That reform would have taken away from the Supreme Court the ability to review and limit the government’s actions.
Netanyahu and his cabinet – the most religious and politically conservative in Israel’s history – claimed the court had become too powerful, vetoing government policies.
Opponents of the legislation said it was an attack on democracy, aimed at neutering the judicial system so that government had nearly unfettered power.

1. Unchecked majority power

“The courts are the only institution that can check the power of the ruling parties and uphold the country’s Basic Laws, which provide rights in the absence of a formal constitution.
But the new government wants to erase this separation of power and explicitly aims at weakening the courts.

2. Perception isn’t reality

He said that there was a perception that the Supreme Court had overstepped boundaries.
So the perception, particularly by those on the right, that this is an activist court, that it has been too active, is reasonable.”

But, Waxman said, “This perception among the right that the court has really restrained Israeli governments isn’t actually accurate.
I think many people would accept that there could be an argument for some kind of judicial reform, at least passing a law to clarify the role and powers of the Supreme Court.

3. Secular power vs. settlers and the Orthodox

“This reform appeals to important sectors of Netanyahu’s supporters who see the Supreme Court’s power as an inappropriate secular check on Israel’s increasingly pro-settler and pro-Orthodox government,” Mednicoff wrote.
He did this in part by allying himself increasingly with the country’s settler population, many of them Orthodox Jews.
“Today’s Israel is marked by growing splits between secular, urbanized citizens near the Mediterranean coast and Orthodox and other settlers in or near the West Bank.

Gaza conflict: the US has learned from its 'forever wars' – but Israel has not

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木曜日, 10月 26, 2023

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After Hamas’s deadly attacks on October 7, a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) appeared inevitable.

Key Points:

After Hamas’s deadly attacks on October 7, a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) appeared inevitable.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government apparently had little choice, given that the attack shocked Israel to its very core.
But nearly two-and-a-half weeks into the war, Israel’s ground invasion has yet to materialise.
This differs to previous rounds of escalations, where US pressure was a critical factor in persuading Israel to agree to a ceasefire.

Ground invasion and the day after

First, what a ground invasion would look like.
Israel’s political and military elite remain divided over what a ground invasion would look like and what the long-term political objectives should be.
The IDF is pushing for a comprehensive ground invasion that would seize the entire territory by land, sea and air.

Netanyahu’s position

Israel’s longest-serving prime minister remains reluctant to abandon the pre-war status quo and would prefer short-term, surgical raids by special forces.
Israel’s public representatives have even verged on boasting that no-one currently cares to consider this question.
The entry of the relatively moderate Blue and White Party into Israel’s “emergency coalition” government has partly assuaged the US.
Party leader, now defence minister Benny Gantz, has convened a committee charged with determining the future of Gaza after Hamas.

Rob Geist Pinfold is a Board Member at Yachad, a British NGO whose primary mission is to support a political resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Israel is getting a surge in donations from the US in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks

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火曜日, 10月 17, 2023

Nonprofits in Israel say they get an estimated US$2 billion a year in donations from other countries.

Key Points:

Nonprofits in Israel say they get an estimated US$2 billion a year in donations from other countries.
Over half of that is from Jewish organizations and individuals in North America, mostly the United States.
The signatories included Charles Bronfman, a co-founder of Birthright, which takes young Jewish people on free, 10-day trips to Israel.
Multiple U.S. corporations have pledged to donate humanitarian aid or match employee donations, including Fox Corp. and Goldman Sachs.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assures 400 Evangelical leaders in a Zoom meeting hosted by Mike Evans, the founder of Friends of Zion Center: "Christians are Israel's best friends"

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火曜日, 9月 5, 2023

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JERUSALEM, Sept. 5, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a Zoom meeting with 394 of the world's most influential Evangelist leaders.

Key Points:

JERUSALEM, Sept. 5, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a Zoom meeting with 394 of the world's most influential Evangelist leaders.
Mike Evans, the founder of Friends of Zion, a number one best-selling author, and a Nobel Peace Prize nominee for a lifetime of combating antisemitism hosted the meeting.
This was Netanyahu's first video conference with the Evangelical community since returning to the premiership last year.
https://youtu.be/G5SoR0rzjw0?si=lP3aDygAUWI57q1A
The Friends of Zion Heritage center was established in 2015, in the center of Israel's capital Jerusalem, by founder Dr. Mike Evans.

US-Israel relations the coolest for decades after 'terror' attack by settlers kills 19 year-old Palestinian

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金曜日, 8月 11, 2023

As Time magazine put it recently: “The sources of Biden’s grievances are manifold.

Key Points:

As Time magazine put it recently: “The sources of Biden’s grievances are manifold.
Since reclaiming power, Netanyahu has formed a hard-right coalition filled with ultraconservative and ultra-Orthodox voices.
They now number more than half a million across the West Bank, with many seeing it as their God-given land.

‘Terror’ on the West Bank

The Israeli agriculture minister, Avi Dichter, tried to dismiss this as a misinformed comment.
Behind all of this is a major problem for the Israelis in securing the West Bank for the Jewish settlers.
A subsequent IDF rescue operation required a substantial ground force backed up by AH-64 Apache helicopters using air-to-ground missiles and took nine hours to complete.

Security and settlers

Most analysts had come to the view that Israel had sufficient forces needed to ensure its own security – whether in southern Lebanon, Gaza or the West Bank.
Many settlers live close to Palestinian towns and villages and are afforded protection by the Israeli government which is controlled by ultra-right parties sympathetic to the settler movement.
The settlers will remain, they are well armed and utterly convinced that they are right.

Could Trump turn his politics of grievance into a get-out-of-jail card? Neither prosecution nor even jail time have prevented former leaders in Israel, Brazil and Kenya from mounting comebacks

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水曜日, 8月 2, 2023

Donald Trump has declared, “I am your retribution,” and it appears to be a guiding theme of his 2024 campaign.

Key Points:

Donald Trump has declared, “I am your retribution,” and it appears to be a guiding theme of his 2024 campaign.
There’s likely to be an additional indictment from Fulton County, Georgia, prosecutor Fani Willis.
Is a campaign based on grievance and retribution likely to sway voters?

Political muscle can trounce a prosecution

Candidates under investigation can leverage their political muscle to run for office – and as a means to avoid prosecution.
Members of both factions were investigated, and Kenyatta and Ruto were personally charged with organizing the violence among their supporters.
This flexing of political muscle, a crusade questioning the ICC’s legitimacy and grassroots mobilization led to their eventual victory.

Undermining accountability

A novel legal strategy for Trump would be to try to apply this also to state jurisdictions like New York and Georgia.
Additionally, precedent and legal scholarship also suggest that the court would deem at least some of these actions constitutional.
Beyond ending immediate prosecutions, victorious candidates can use winning office to further erode democratic institutions and the rule of law.
That potentially undermines the independence and functioning of everything from the State and Justice departments to local law enforcement.

Comebacks follow prosecutions

Examples from other countries show that prosecution or even jail time does not prevent former leaders from mounting comebacks.
Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was elected once again in 2022 after his conviction and imprisonment.
He argued that a judge who was in cahoots with prosecutors, and who became Lula’s predecessor’s justice minister, revealed the politicized nature of Brazil’s justice system.

As contentious judicial 'reform' becomes law in Israel, Netanyahu cements his political legacy

Retrieved on:

月曜日, 7月 24, 2023

Opponents say the law threatens democracy; supporters argue it protects the will of the electoral majority.

Key Points:

Opponents say the law threatens democracy; supporters argue it protects the will of the electoral majority.
Netanyahu has been a political force and survivor in Israeli politics since the 1990s.
As a scholar of Middle Eastern politics, I think that Netanyahu’s long-term legacy will be based on three major developments.

From democracy to theocracy

That helped Israel keep and enhance its historic strong support from the U.S. government.
The second set him up for political success in a country in which the army is a key – and revered – institution.
Like other elected strongmen, he and his allies have gained support from, and encouraged, right-wing nationalists and divisive politics.
The longer Netanyahu has held power in Israel, the more allegations of corruption and criminal conduct he has faced.
The two groups have different visions for Israel’s future, with the latter citizens pushing the country in a more theocratic direction.

Distancing Palestinians

Netanyahu has long pledged to avoid compromising with Palestinians over control of territory and security in the West Bank and Gaza, areas under Israeli military control since 1967.
Among his most tangible legacies is the physical barrier now separating West Bank Palestinians from Israelis, which gives Israeli authorities great control over how West Bank Palestinians enter Israel.
The barrier has kept Israeli Jews from much contact with Palestinians other than during military service.
Reflecting the sentiments of his right-wing base, Netanyahu has had a generally consistent response to Hamas, and Palestinians more generally.

Reshaping Israel’s alliances

Those efforts stem in part from his relentless drive to curb Iran’s influence in the Middle East.
Netanyahu has played up this hostility to domestic and international audiences, even urging the U.S. to attack Iran.
Yet Netanyahu’s policies are also causing major cracks in support for Israel from its central ally, the U.S.
In recent years, Israeli and American Jews have diverged increasingly on the ethics and importance of Palestinian autonomy.
It’s clear that the country’s military security and cooperation with major Arab states in the Middle East have expanded.