The Eras Tour

• The election was called early owing to disagreements between the Liberals and former Liberal MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker.
• Tasmania uses the same five electorates for state and federal elections, with seven members to be elected per electorate, up from five previously.
• The YouGov poll gave the Liberals 31%, Labor 27%, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) 20%, the Greens 15% and independents 7%.
• However, the Liberal National Party is likely to win the October Queensland election, so even if Labor takes power in Tasmania, unified Labor government probably won’t last long.

Federal YouGov poll: 69% support tax changes but Albanese’s ratings drop

• A national YouGov poll, conducted February 2–7 from a sample of 1,502, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged from the mid-January YouGov poll.
• On the changes to the stage three tax cuts, 69% supported the changes while 31% supported the original stage three proposal.

Labor gains in Essential poll

• In a national Essential poll, conducted February 7–11 from a sample of 1,148, Labor led by 50–46 including undecided (48–46 two weeks ago).
• This is Labor’s largest lead in Essential since early October.
• Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 14% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).

Labor down in a Redbridge poll

• A national Redbridge poll, conducted January 30 to February 7 from a sample of 2,040, gave Labor a 51.2–48.8 lead, a 1.6-point gain for the Coalition since the last Redbridge poll in December.
• Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up three), 33% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (steady) and 16% for all Others (down three).
• Despite the narrow Labor lead on voting intentions, Labor held a 32–28 lead on economic management, which is usually a relative strength for the Coalition.

Morgan and Dunkley byelection polls

• Labor’s lead increased to 53–47 in last week’s Morgan poll that was conducted January 29 to February 4.
• In this week’s Morgan poll, conducted February 5–11 from a sample of 1,699, Labor led by 52–48.
• The federal byelection to replace the deceased Labor MP Peta Murphy will be held on March 2.
• Eight candidates will contest the Dunkley byelection.
• In other byelection news, the South Australian state byelection in Dunstan to replace former Liberal premier Steven Marshall will be held March 23.

US Democrats gain federal House seat at byelection

I covered the United States federal byelection for New York’s third congressional district for The Poll Bludger. Democrats easily gained from the Republicans. I also covered the latest presidential primaries that show both Donald Trump and Joe Biden cruising to their parties’ nominations.
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.