Kálmán | Jotup

Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: evidence from Germany

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星期二, 四月 23, 2024

Consensus, Online, Cream, Honey, Tax, Glass, MAPI, Consensus Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Milk, Shower, Low-alcohol beer, Autoregressive–moving-average model, Infant, C3, Islam, Wine, Core inflation, Research Papers in Economics, National accounts, Kálmán, Barcode, Journal of International Economics, Communication, Royal Statistical Society, COVID19, Kohl (cosmetics), Natural disaster, Business, Observation, Paper, VAT, European Economic Review, Diebold Nixdorf, Blancmange, Calendar, Sunflower oil, Annual Review of Economics, Hand, C4, DESTATIS, NBER, Tinning, Razor, Forecasting, Gasoline, Coffee, European Economic Association, Cat, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Medeiros, Architecture, Oxford University Press, Producer, GfK, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Margarine, NCBS, Starch, Political economy, Consistency, COVID-19, Consensus decision-making, Website, MIDAS, Behavior, Deutsche Bundesbank, PPI, World Bank, Collection, Medical classification, Orange, Eurozone, Butter, FMCG, Noise, Travel, Clothing, History, Inflation, Liver, International economics, Journal of Political Economy, BSI, OLS, Statistics, Consumer, PDF, University of Chicago, Classification, ECB, Fats, Policy, Multi, WOB, Outline, C6, Mincing, Canadian International Council, Social science, Perfume, University of California, Berkeley, Journal of Forecasting, Federal Reserve Bank, JEL, L1, Journal, Research, Candle, Food, TPD, Credit, Spice, LPG, Janssen, Marmalade, Superior, Literature, Chocolate, Beef, Kiel University, European Central Bank, Natural gas, HICP, Monetary economics, Yogurt, Section 5, ILO, Bermingham, Price, GTIN, Cheese, Macroeconomics, Growth, Beck, XJ, Government, De Beer, Supermarket, Ice cream, Naturally, C53, Corn flakes, BIS, Biscuit, LASSO, Petroleum, A.2, Poultry, Accuracy and precision, Application, White, Lettuce, Risk, ESCB, University of Siegen, OECD, Chapter One, Lipstick, Sack, XT, BIC, Garlic, Consumption, Sokol, Meat, VAR, Database, Section 3, Rusk, American Economic Journal, Royal, Curd, Overalls, Lamb, Great Lockdown, Fruit, Economy, COICOP, International Journal of Forecasting, Aftershave, Section 2, Nonparametric statistics, Attention, Conference, CPI, Heat, Public economics, Common sunflower, Nowcasting, American Economic Review, Computational Statistics (journal), GFK, COVID-19 pandemic, Exercise, Shock, Running, UNECE, Edible, Gambling, Banco, Rigid transformation, European Commission, Frozen, C.2, PRISMA, Official statistics, Concept, Drink, Transaction data, Somatosensory system, Punctuality, Altbier, Food prices, Response, GDP, Index, E31, Cabinet of Germany, Holiday, Machine learning, Series, Green, Whisky, Vegetable, Cola, Journal of Econometrics, Sadik Harchaoui, University, Aggregate, World Bank Group, B.1, Use, Book, Economic statistics, Civil service commission, 1L, Apple, Bread, Filter, Central bank, Brandeis University, Economic Modelling, Bank, Barkan, Roulade, Dairy product, Neural network, Reproduction, IMF, Section, ID, Data, D4L, Cryptocurrency

Key Points:

Advanced Space Demonstrates Artificial Intelligence for Spacecraft Autonomy at the Moon

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星期四, 三月 21, 2024

Automation, Artificial neural network, NN, Artificial intelligence, Classification, Microelectronics, Software, Spacecraft, Telemetry, Anomaly, IARPA, Intelligence, Machine learning, Software engineering, Kálmán, Orbit, Communications satellite

WESTMINSTER, Colo., March 21, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Advanced Space, LLC, a leading space tech solutions company announced the successful use of machine learning in cislunar space. The Cislunar Autonomous Positioning System Technology Operations and Navigation Experiment (CAPSTONE™) spacecraft has been busy testing new software that is laying the groundwork for a substantial and transformative advance in autonomous navigation in orbit.

Key Points:

WESTMINSTER, Colo., March 21, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Advanced Space, LLC , a leading space tech solutions company announced the successful use of machine learning in cislunar space.
This is part of a study for the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) under the MicroE4AI (Microelectronics for Artificial Intelligence) program.
The capabilities of SigmaZero build upon the Advanced Space mission of developing cutting-edge technologies like machine learning (ML) that improve onboard spacecraft autonomy.
We are grateful to our teams of performers, including Advanced Space, who are working diligently to help us meet our program's goals."

Measuring market-based core inflation expectations

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星期四, 二月 15, 2024

Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
We build a novel term structure model for pricing synthetic euro area core inflation-linked
swaps, a hypothetical swap contract indexed to core inflation.
The model provides estimates of market-based expectations for core inflation, as
well as core inflation risk premia, at daily frequency, whereas core inflation expectations from
surveys or macroeconomic projections are typically only available monthly or quarterly.
We
find that core inflation-linked swap rates are generally less volatile than headline inflationlinked swap rates and that market participants expected core inflation to be substantially
more persistent than headline inflation following the 2022 energy price spike.
In this paper, we aim to infer market-based core inflation expectations, which are otherwise
not directly observable because no financial asset directly tied to core inflation exists.
We deem this second assumption reasonable because HICP inflation itself is a linear combination
of core as well as energy and food inflation.
The level of 2 percent and relatively low volatility of
long-term inflation expectations suggests that inflation expectations are firmly anchored at the
ECB?s 2 percent inflation target.
This assumption appears reasonably uncontroversial,
as core inflation is a sub-component of headline inflation, which the observable headline ILS
rates are tied to.
Our estimates of core ILS rates reflect both market participants? genuine core
inflation expectations and a core inflation risk premium, but our model explicitly allows for
this decomposition.
The model-implied estimates of core ILS rates appear reasonable along several dimensions:
(i) like realized core inflation is less volatile than headline inflation, the core ILS rates are less
volatile than headline ILS rates, (ii) core ILS rates comove less with oil prices than headline
ILS rates, (iii) the core inflation expectations, as reflected in core ILS rates, typically evolve
similarly as the core inflation projections by Eurosystem staff, and (iv) consistent with market
commentary at the time, core ILS rates suggest that market participants expected core inflation
to be substantially more persistent than headline inflation following the 2022 energy price spike.
To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to price core ILS rates and decompose them into
market-based expectations for and risks around the core inflation outlook.
Our approach to inferring core ILS
rates from headline ILS rates, realized headline and core inflation as well as survey expectations
for headline and core inflation is also related to Ang et al.
Relative
to their study, we separately measure core inflation expectations and risk premia, we provide
core inflation expectations at a higher-frequency, and we provide evidence on the causal effects
ECB Working Paper Series No 2908

6

of monetary policy shocks on core inflation expectations and risk premia.
Specifically, we decompose the synthetic core ILS rates
into average expected core inflation over the lifetime of the swap contract and a core inflation
risk premium that compensates investors for core inflation risk.
In
our model below, this term is constant over time and relatively small, so we will simply refer
to the core inflation risk premium as the difference between the core ILS rate and the average
expected core inflation over the lifetime of the swap contract.
3.2
Core ILS rates

To have a joint model for headline and core ILS rates, we need one further assumption on the
dynamics of realized core inflation.
The assumption that core inflation is driven by the same set of factors as headline inflation
should be relatively uncontroversial: since headline inflation is a weighted average of core and
food and energy inflation, it should reflect any factors driving core inflation.
If there are factors
driving food and energy inflation, which do not show up in core inflation, then those factors
should still show up in headline inflation.
In step two, to be able to infer the factor
loadings of core inflation, we would regress realized core inflation onto the estimated latent
factors to identify the additional parameters in equation (12).
Before the fourth
quarter of 2016, the SPF did not ask respondents for their core inflation expectations, so we
are not able to use survey-based information about core inflation before then.
Before
2016, the fitted core inflation series is somewhat above the realized one, potentially reflecting
that the model has limited information about core inflation over this early period due to the
lack of information about core inflation from surveys.
This could have been the
case if one of the factors moved core inflation and energy and food inflation in exactly offsetting
direction, so the overall impact on headline inflation was exactly zero.
During 2021, for example, there were
ECB Working Paper Series No 2908

25

Figure 7: Decomposition of synthetic core ILS rates
2y core ILS

5y core ILS

5
4

5
ILS

premia

exp

4

ILS

premia

exp

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

-2
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

10y core ILS

5y5y core ILS

5
4

5
ILS

premia

exp

4

ILS

premia

exp

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

-2
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Note: Synthetic core ILS rates decomposed into genuine core inflation expectations and core inflation risk
premia.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2908
26

Figure 8: Decomposition of ILS rates
2y ILS

5y ILS

5
4

5
ILS

premia

exp

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2
2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

-2
2006

ILS

2010

10y ILS

2018

2022

5
ILS

premia

exp

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2
2006

2014

exp

5y5y ILS

5
4

premia

2010

2014

2018

2022

-2
2006

ILS

2010

premia

2014

2018

exp

2022

Note: ILS rates decomposed into genuine core inflation expectations and core inflation risk premia.
We find that the headline inflation risk premium
indeed does responds more strongly than the core inflation risk premium.
The key
assumption underlying our approach is that traded headline ILS rates span core inflation, which
ECB Working Paper Series No 2908

35

should be reasonably uncontroversial as core inflation is a sub-component of headline inflation.
We fit the model to euro area headline ILS rates, realized headline and core inflation, and
both headline and core inflation expectations reported in the SPF.
Decomposing our core ILS rates into genuine core inflation expectations and core
inflation risk premia shows that shorter maturities mainly reflect core inflation expectations,
while the core inflation risk premium matters relatively more for longer maturities.
Our results suggest that a monetary policy tightening surprise significantly lowers
near-term core inflation expectations, although less so than it lowers headline inflation expectations.

North Texas Food Bank Expands Fleet to Serve More North Texans Facing Hunger

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星期三, 二月 14, 2024

“The ARPA capacity-building grant that the North Texas Food Bank used to purchase our new vehicles is a testament to the continuous support and commitment of The Texas Department of Agriculture to address the issue of food insecurity across Texas,” said Trisha Cunningham, President and CEO of the North Texas Food Bank.

Key Points:

“The ARPA capacity-building grant that the North Texas Food Bank used to purchase our new vehicles is a testament to the continuous support and commitment of The Texas Department of Agriculture to address the issue of food insecurity across Texas,” said Trisha Cunningham, President and CEO of the North Texas Food Bank.
“The savings from reduced transportation costs will help provide an additional 2.4 million meals annually for children, families, and seniors facing hunger in North Texas, a region that has the fourth highest number of food insecure people in the country.
The number of people facing hunger in North Texas could fill Globe Life Stadium where the Rangers play 16 times.
“Our new fleet of vehicles provides the North Texas Food Bank with the tools we need to help close the hunger gap in North Texas and provide children, adults, and seniors a hunger-free future.

The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation

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星期日, 二月 4, 2024

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We got the beat: How we perceive rhythm involves neurological processes that control movement

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星期日, 十月 1, 2023

Whether or not you’re a musician, somehow you know intuitively when to speed up or slow down to stay in time.

Key Points:

Whether or not you’re a musician, somehow you know intuitively when to speed up or slow down to stay in time.
A wide range of living and non-living systems show synchronization, the tendency to coordinate rhythmic activity across interconnected groups.
And as a scientist, I am fascinated by the processes in the mind and brain that allow us to interact so expertly and spontaneously with rhythm.

Rhythm and the brain

But it appears that even our ability to mentally follow and anticipate musical rhythms is tied up with the brain processes we use to move our bodies.
Using functional MRI, music neuroscientists have established that actively listening to rhythm activates the supplementary motor area of the cerebral cortex and the basal ganglia in the deep brain, both of which are important for generating voluntary movements.
Anticipating and processing events in a rhythm may draw on the same brain mechanisms as anticipating and processing the sensory consequences of our own movements.

Causes of motor disorders

Drawing links between motor control and rhythm perception may help us make sense of the underlying causes of neurological disorders that both affect rhythm perception and benefit from rhythm-focused therapies, including Parkinson’s, Huntington’s, and stuttering.
Developmental stuttering (a stutter during speech that arises in early childhood) is associated with impairment in rhythm perception and weaker ability to tap in time with a metronome.

Rhythm and boundaries

I believe that how we sense rhythm blurs the boundaries between our internal and external worlds.
As we play music in a group, we literally lose ourselves in the rhythm: we no longer predict the timing of our own sounds separately from the mix, but instead predict the timing of all sounds based on the group’s rhythm as a whole.

Prediction and action

I suspect that the last ingredient is the tight relationship between prediction and action.
According to one exciting theory of the neural control of action, we move our bodies not by sending “commands” to them, but instead by predicting what we will experience when we move them.
A shared rhythmic experience is a fluid interplay between sound, external expectations, self-expectation and action.

Sylvamo Announces New Latin America Senior Leader

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星期三, 五月 24, 2023

Forest Products, Natural Resources, Kálmán, BASF, Gibson, SLVM, NYSE, Management, Drug

Sylvamo (NYSE: SLVM), the world’s paper company, is announcing a senior leadership change for its Latin America division.

Key Points:

Sylvamo (NYSE: SLVM), the world’s paper company, is announcing a senior leadership change for its Latin America division.
Tatiana Kalman has been elected senior vice president and general manager, Latin America, effective June 1.
Kalman joins Sylvamo from BASF, most recently serving as managing director and senior vice president, Business Unit Personal Care Europe.
Kalman succeeds Rodrigo Davoli, who was elected senior vice president and general manager, North America, earlier this month.

Additive Manufacturing Users Group Awards Two Scholarships

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星期二, 二月 28, 2023

MILWAUKEE, Feb. 28, 2023 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- The Additive Manufacturing Users Group (AMUG) today announced the recipients of its scholarships. Dr. Les Kalman, Assistant Professor in restorative dentistry at Western University (London, Ontario, Canada), has been awarded the Randy Stevens Scholarship for educators in additive manufacturing. Brent Griffith, P.E., is pursuing a Master of Engineering in Additive Manufacturing and Design through Penn State University (State College, Pennsylvania) and has been awarded the Guy E. Bourdeau Scholarship for students in additive manufacturing.

Key Points:

The Additive Manufacturing Users Group (AMUG) announced the recipients of its scholarships.
MILWAUKEE, Feb. 28, 2023 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- The Additive Manufacturing Users Group (AMUG) today announced the recipients of its scholarships.
As scholarship recipients, Kalman and Griffith will attend the AMUG Conference, where they will engage with additive manufacturing users.
The scholarships recognize students and educators demonstrating passion and vision for additive manufacturing to advance education and industry.

WIMI Hologram Academy: Two New Techniques for Phase Disentanglement

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星期四, 九月 22, 2022

HONG KONG, Sept. 22, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- WIMI Hologram Academy, working in partnership with the Holographic Science Innovation Center, has written a new technical article describing their research on Two New Techniques for Phase Disentanglement.

Key Points:

HONG KONG, Sept. 22, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- WIMI Hologram Academy, working in partnership with the Holographic Science Innovation Center, has written a new technical article describing their research on Two New Techniques for Phase Disentanglement.
Scientists from WIMI Hologram Academy of WIMI Hologram Cloud Inc.(NASDAQ: WIMI) focus on the development of phase unwinding technologies used in InSAR, focusing on two of the most advanced phase unwinding technologies.
Later, advanced single-baseline winding methods of minimum cost flow (MCF), statistical cost flow (SNAPHU), PUMA, and large-scale phase unwinding techniques appeared.
They proposed three improved two-stage planning methods: multi-baseline Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) phase unwinding algorithm, multi-Cubage volume Kalman Filter (CKF) phase unwinding algorithm, and multi-baseline tasteless information filtering phase unwinding algorithm.

Microvast makes batteries smarter and safer: New battery management system BMS 5.0 improves safety and extends battery lifetime

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星期一, 九月 19, 2022

Microvast Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVST), a technology innovator that designs, develops and manufactures lithium-ion battery solutions, today announced the fifth generation of its Battery Management System, called BMS 5.0.

Key Points:

Microvast Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MVST), a technology innovator that designs, develops and manufactures lithium-ion battery solutions, today announced the fifth generation of its Battery Management System, called BMS 5.0.
View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220919005331/en/
The Battery Management System (BMS) is the brain of the battery pack, a critical component that measures cell voltages, module temperatures, and battery pack current.
It also detects isolation faults and controls the contactors and the thermal management system.
The battery management system consists of electronics and software to protect the operator of the battery-powered system and the battery pack itself against overcharge, over-discharge, overcurrent, cell short circuits, and extreme temperatures.