2017 Virginia House of Delegates election

• The election results in Virginia offer Republicans across the country one key lesson before the 2024 presidential election: Revise the GOP position on the critical issue of abortion.
• Glenn Youngkin had campaigned for other GOP members on his plan to ban abortions after 15 weeks, as opposed to the outright abortion ban that some Virginia politicians have promised to pass.
• But Youngkin’s hopes that his 15-week ban would spare the party further political grief failed miserably, as Democrats secured control over both legislative branches.

Abortion was the key issue

• In that survey, 70% of Democrats considered abortion a major factor for them in the upcoming elections, as compared with 35% of Republicans.
• Among independents, 54% said the abortion ruling was a major factor as they considered how to approach the Virginia midterms.

Straddling GOP extremes

• Youngkin was elected governor two years ago as a largely unknown conservative who had a lengthy business career – and no legislative record.
• In recent decades, Virginia went from a reliably Republican state in presidential elections to one where Donald Trump lost by 10 points in 2020.

• But in a nod to suburban Republicans, Youngkin kept his distance from the former president’s insistence that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.
• Youngkin won the 2021 election by two points.

Shifting political landscape

• Governing as a strident conservative focusing on easing COVID restrictions, cutting taxes and, above all, shifting the direction of public education, Youngkin ran into roadblocks in the Virginia Senate, where Democrats remained in the majority.
• In one example, the Youngkin administration proposed a set of revisions to the state’s Standards of Learning in history and social sciences.
• They argued that the GOP empowered extremists who want to ban books and tell lies about U.S. and Virginia history.

Where does election leave Youngkin and GOP?

• Democrats control the state legislature, and Youngkin’s tenure may be marked by more legislative gridlock.
• Instead, Youngkin started his term by defining himself as a partisan champion, albeit not a fully pro-Trump Republican.

Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.