MAGA

• U.S. presidents often leave the White House expressing “strategic regret” over perceived foreign policy failures.
• Lyndon Johnson was haunted by the Vietnam War.
• Bill Clinton regretted the failed intervention in Somalia and how the “Black Hawk Down” incident contributed to his administration’s inaction over the Rwandan genocide.
• Barack Obama said the Libyan intervention was “the worst mistake” of his presidency.

Another Beirut?

• The Middle East has entered a volatile period.
• The threat to U.S. personnel in the region takes the form of both the Islamic State group, which is intent on hitting Western targets, and the increased risk from a network of Iran-linked militants seeking to avenge what they see as U.S. complicity in Israel’s siege of Gaza.
• If any mass-casualty attack on U.S. forces were to occur, the occupant of the White House would face two conditions that have left departing presidents experiencing strategic regret: the loss of American lives on their watch and the prospect of being drawn into a widening war.

• Today’s situation in Iraq and Syria is eerily similar in many ways to the circumstances Reagan faced in Beirut, but potentially far more dangerous.
• Like Lebanon then, U.S. troops are in Iraq and Syria for secondary, as opposed to primary, security objectives.
• According to a recent Pentagon report, that threat remains exceedingly weak today for the United States.
• While Reagan was unaware of the high exposure of U.S. Marines in 1983, the danger U.S. troops face today in Iraq and Syria is abundantly clear.
• The Jordan attack aside, U.S. service members have already suffered significant injuries from missiles, including dozens of traumatic brain injuries.

Fueling hubris

Some might consider this concern about “another Beirut” overblown. After all, proxy attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have dropped since the attack in Jordan in late January, giving the impression that deterrence is now working after big U.S. retaliatory strikes in February.

• The 1983 Marine Corps barracks bombing was preceded a few months earlier by a smaller, yet still deadly, bombing at the U.S. embassy in Beirut.
• In the lull that followed the embassy attack, Reagan officials didn’t pursue a strategically smart rethink of U.S. policy or consider troop reductions.
• In short, lulls in violence like today in Iraq and Syria can fuel hubris and provide a dangerous sense of false security and a determination to stay the course.
• As research shows, “see, I told you so” is a powerful rhetorical tool in circumstances like this.

The ghosts of history

• But anything too large risks inviting the kind of response that could lead to lasting and devastating outcomes.
• Imagine, for example, a scenario in which a U.S. president is provoked into striking Iran following repeated attacks by Tehran’s proxies on U.S. troops.
• The result would be an expansion of – and further U.S. involvement in – the Middle East conflict.
• Their experiences and the ghosts of history serve as a warning when it comes to U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq now.

Charles Walldorf received funding from Charles Koch Foundation.

Charles Walldorf is a Visiting Fellow, Defense Priorities

• CINCINNATI, Feb. 13, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- Former Washington Post contributing columnist Gary Abernathy's new book, "MAGA Republicans Are Already Normal – And Other Shocking Notions," is now available in hardcover, paperback and eBook on Amazon.
• He predicted early in the process that the billionaire businessman and reality TV star would win the GOP presidential nomination.
• Throughout the campaign and in the months following Trump's historic upset victory, Abernathy continued writing about Trump.
• "MAGA Republicans Are Already Normal" opens with a collection of the columns written for the Times-Gazette that caught the attention of the Post.

• The last successful GOP candidate who won the Iowa caucus was George W Bush in 2000.
• This is partly because Iowa, with just over 3 million inhabitants represents less than 1% of the wider US population.
• Its voters are also much older, more rural, whiter (90%), more evangelical and less college educated than the US at large.
• Those turning out to vote for Trump were also a smaller, self-selecting subset of even that tiny population.

Biden wants Trump to win

• It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow.” This is also how Biden and his team want it.
• By contrast, polls pitting Biden against either Haley or DeSantis show a marked improvement in the prospect for the Republic Party.
• By contrast, the Democrats see such a process as their best chance of overcoming Biden’s own unpopularity with the electorate.

Negative ratings

• Trump’s national favourability ratings currently stand at 42%.
• This is a very different picture from that painted by the news coverage from the Iowa caucus.

David Hastings Dunn has previously received funding from the ESRC, the Gerda Henkel Foundation, the Open Democracy Foundation and has previously been both a NATO and a Fulbright Fellow.

• The state is home to the first-in-the-nation GOP nomination event, the Iowa caucus, which takes place on Jan. 15, 2024, at 7 pm.
• I’ve observed Iowa caucus campaigns over eight cycles, and my 2022 book, “Inside the Bubble,” offers a close-up of the 2020 Democratic contest.
• Today, it looks nothing like the scattershot campaign from 2016, the only other time Trump has waged a nomination battle in the state.

Car rides, phone calls

• Registered party members can participate in the caucuses, and attendees will signal their support by writing a candidate’s name on a piece of paper.
• In electoral politics across the U.S., campaigns organize by doling out responsibilities to field staff positioned across a state or electoral district.
• These volunteers engage in outreach to other potential supporters – sometimes in-person, via door-to-door canvassing or on the phone, and increasingly by sending text messages.
• They’ll make sure that known supporters get assistance they might need to get to the caucus, such as a car ride.
• Like primaries, caucuses are within political parties, so voters can’t rely on cues like party labels to pick a candidate.

Campaign bling

• Back in 2016, reluctant Trump volunteers, unfamiliar with caucus procedures, courted Iowa supporters.
• They carry out tasks on behalf of the campaign at events themselves.
• Lest this all seem overly staid, there’s bling, too – a limited edition white and gold variant of the distinctive MAGA cap for the captains.

Caucus 101 lessons

• The events have considerable time devoted to instructing the crowd about how to caucus, which is an unusual use of time at campaign events.
• The typical rally requires attendees to register and be in place well before the event begins, perhaps 1-2 hours early.
• But early in these Trump rallies, the program pivots to a Caucus 101-like presentation – how to find out where to caucus, what to do in advance and what to expect at the caucuses.
• When Democratic candidates have offered such instruction in the past, it’s been behind closed doors, reserved for known supporters and closer to caucus time.

Barbara A. Trish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.