US election 2024: Trump victory in Iowa caucus not as big as he may have hoped – here's why Biden still wants him to get GOP nomination
Retrieved on:
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
The last successful GOP candidate who won the Iowa caucus was George W Bush in 2000.
Key Points:
- The last successful GOP candidate who won the Iowa caucus was George W Bush in 2000.
- This is partly because Iowa, with just over 3 million inhabitants represents less than 1% of the wider US population.
- Its voters are also much older, more rural, whiter (90%), more evangelical and less college educated than the US at large.
- Those turning out to vote for Trump were also a smaller, self-selecting subset of even that tiny population.
Biden wants Trump to win
- It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow.” This is also how Biden and his team want it.
- By contrast, polls pitting Biden against either Haley or DeSantis show a marked improvement in the prospect for the Republic Party.
- By contrast, the Democrats see such a process as their best chance of overcoming Biden’s own unpopularity with the electorate.
Negative ratings
- Trump’s national favourability ratings currently stand at 42%.
- This is a very different picture from that painted by the news coverage from the Iowa caucus.
David Hastings Dunn has previously received funding from the ESRC, the Gerda Henkel Foundation, the Open Democracy Foundation and has previously been both a NATO and a Fulbright Fellow.