Ukraine Defense Contact Group

• I was recently part of a delegation to Kyiv of military, intelligence and diplomatic experts organised by the thinktank Globsec.
• One abiding impression remains – the profound determination of Ukrainian people to fight what almost everyone now accepts is going to be a long war.
• Seeing the war as likely to be long and grinding, Ukrainian senior leaders are focusing on two closely connected elements of sustaining their country’s security into the next (long) phase of the war.
• Messages to the effect that outright siding with the enemy is not compatible with Nato membership may need to be passed on, preferably long before the summit.

Roadmap to Nato membership

• It should be stressed that no Ukrainian official is naive on the issue of Nato membership.
• Instead, they are asking for some form of roadmap to membership.
• The default option being proposed by Ukraine is security guarantees – perhaps even bilateral, such as those offered to Sweden and Finland by the UK and US pending their full Nato membership.
• Clearly, as with Nato membership, there would be no question of the UK or any other bilateral party committing to defend Ukraine during the current conflict.

Military assistance

• This brings us to the second aspect of sustaining Ukraine’s security – maintaining and increasing the supply of military equipment in the long term.
• There is no question that western military assistance has probably made the difference between Ukraine holding the line so far and defeat.
• Despite the scale of assistance provided so far, western help has been staccato and ad hoc in nature.
• We will begin to learn in July if Nato and the west is serious about accepting Ukraine as a future military partner, either in Nato or some other arrangement pending entry.