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Piero Cipollone: Europe’s tragedy of the horizon: the green transition and the role of the ECB

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tisdag, maj 28, 2024

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We quantify both the direct and the portfolio re-balancing impact, emphasizing the role of investor heterogeneity.

Key Points:

We quantify both the direct and the portfolio re-balancing impact, emphasizing the role of investor heterogeneity.
We use proprietary security-level data on asset holdings of different investors.
We measure the direct impact on security level, finding that it is smaller for securities predominantly held by more price-elastic investors, funds and banks.

2023 macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system

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tisdag, maj 28, 2024

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Contents

Key Points:

Contents
Abstract
2

1

Non-technical summary

3

2

Introduction

4

3

Macroeconomic scenarios

6

4

Methodological developments in macroprudential stress test
modelling

9

4.1

9

Updates to the model since the 2021 macroprudential stress test

5

Main findings on banking system resilience

13

6

Discussion of selected results

19

6.1

Bank lending

19

6.2

Asset quality and credit losses

21

6.3

Funding costs and net interest income

25

7

Conclusions

References

ECB Occasional Paper Series No 347

30
31

1

Abstract
This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area
banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions
across 19 countries.
Our results highlight the resilience of the euro area banking system and the
important role banks? adjustments play in the propagation of shocks to the financial
sector and real economy.
In line with the latest
EBA stress test, it also incorporates the effects stemming from the phasing-out of
non-conventional monetary policy.
The model tracks the
evolution of all euro area economies and that of 98 significant banks covering more
than 80% of the euro area banking sector.
ECB Occasional Paper Series No 347
3

2

Introduction
The 2023 macroprudential stress test assesses how adjustments to banks?
balance sheets in response to shocks feed back into the real economy.
The exercise employs a large-scale model of individual banks and countries
and applies the revised Banking Euro Area Stress Test (BEAST) framework.
The stress test results show that the euro area banking sector remains
resilient under the adverse scenario.
The impact of the stress test reveals significant
variability across banks, reflecting their diverse business models and heterogeneous
3
See ESRB (2023).
The macroprudential stress test captures how banks?
strategic adjustments to their balance sheets under stress feed back into the real
economy.
Euro area banks remain slightly profitable
in 2023, primarily driven by higher net interest income (NII) resulting from a
continued widening of margins.
Section 3 briefly presents the baseline and adverse scenarios that are
taken from the latest EBA stress test.
Section 4 describes the main developments of
the model since the last macroprudential stress test report.
Notes: Distribution of macroeconomic variables under the baseline and adverse annual scenarios across euro area countries.
ECB Occasional Paper Series No 347
8

4

Methodological developments in
macroprudential stress test modelling
The macroprudential stress-testing exercise employs the BEAST model, a
large-scale model linking the macroeconomy and the banking system.
The
macroprudential stress test model?s baseline scenario estimates of credit risk
parameters are more conservative than the risk parameters submitted by EU banks
in the EBA stress test.
The macroprudential stress test model shows a more positive contribution of
NII to capital compared with the EBA stress test under the adverse scenario
(Chart 4).
ECB Occasional Paper Series No 347
29

7

Conclusions
The macroprudential stress test is based on the same starting points and
macroeconomic scenarios as the EBA stress test but relaxes some of its key
assumptions.
The macroprudential stress-testing exercise considers the
development of 98 significant banks and 19 euro area economies, covering more
than 80% of the euro area banking sector.
Compared with the EBA stress test, the macroprudential stress test estimates
a lower depletion of the CET1 ratio in 2025 for the adverse scenario.
Budnik, K., Boucherie, L., Borsuk, M., Dimitrov, I., Giraldo, G., Gro?, J., Jancokov?,
M., Karmelavi?ius, J., Lampe, M., Vagliano, G. and Volk, M. (2021),
?Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system amid the coronavirus
(COVID-19) pandemic?, ECB, October.
European Central Bank (2023), ?2023 stress test of euro area banks?, Frankfurt am
Main, July.
European Systemic Risk Board (2023), ?Macro-financial scenario for the 2023 EUwide banking sector stress test?, Frankfurt am Main, January.

The rise of artificial intelligence: benefits and risks for financial stability

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tisdag, maj 28, 2024

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The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools represents a significant technological leap forward, with the potential to have a substantial impact on the financial system.

Key Points:

The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools represents a significant technological leap forward, with the potential to have a substantial impact on the financial system.
Conceptually, AI brings both benefits and risks to the financial system.

Stress testing with multiple scenarios: a tale on tails and reverse stress scenarios

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tisdag, maj 28, 2024

Entropy, Risk, Principal component analysis, Classification, Research Papers in Economics, Social science, Section 3, STN, XT, Central bank, Y0, XTC, LTN, JEL, Medical classification, GDP, Chapter Eight, Section 5, ESRB, ECB, Probability, Studer, BEAST, Reproduction, Element, FIN, Fed, Thumb, MTC, Pliszka, G28, NPL, Communication, Behavior, ESX, Section 8, RHS, Lens, European Central Bank, Projection, European Systemic Risk Board, Flood, COVID-19, Literature, Row, Public Security Section 9, Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis, Federal Reserve, Safety, GARCH, GFC, Appendix, Macroprudential regulation, LHS, WC, ROA, Policy, HICP, Central Bank of India, G21, VAR, Section 2, A.5, SSM, IRB, PDF, Cross, Unemployment, Website, A.2, LCR, PCA, Section 4, Coal, Sciences Po, Exercise, Tail, STA, Buffer, Bank, NFC, URX, Eye, SOV, EBA, Knowledge, History, Common equity, Risk management

Key Points:

Financial Stability Review, May 2024

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tisdag, maj 28, 2024

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Euro area private markets have grown significantly in recent years, providing alternative funding sources for companies and diversification benefits for investors.

Key Points:

Euro area private markets have grown significantly in recent years, providing alternative funding sources for companies and diversification benefits for investors.
While private markets are currently small relative to public markets and bank lending in the euro area, continued strong growth, financial innovation and opaqueness in private markets could contribute to financial stability risks.

The globalization of climate change: amplification of climate-related physical risks through input-output linkages

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tisdag, maj 28, 2024

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To address this shortcoming, this paper for the first

Key Points:

To address this shortcoming, this paper for the first
time combines country-level GDP losses due to climate-related physical risks with a global Input-Output
model.
More specifically, climate-related GDP-at-risk data are used to quantify the potential direct
impact of physical risks on GDP at the country or regional level.
JEL Classification: E01, Q54, Q56, F18
Keywords: Supply chains, physical risk, climate change
ECB Working Paper Series No 2942

1

Non-technical summary
The estimation of real-economic damages due to climate change physical risks remains an important
challenge in the face of global warming.
Many economic models make significant simplifications on
the channels of transmission of climate physical risks across the globe, often giving the impression that
the risks for the Euro Area will be relatively small.
In particular, the role of global supply chains in the
transmission and potential amplification of climate related physical risks has received little attention.
This is relevant because climatologists predict that direct impacts from climate change-induced natural
disasters will materialize mainly outside the Euro Area.
Understanding potential real economy losses would also contribute to better portray the risks which
could spill over into the financial system.
Introduction
Recent estimates of real-economic damages due to climate change physical risks do not appear
incredibly worrying, not at least those for European countries.
The ECB climate stress test of 2022 also finds relatively little impact from physical risks.
Nordhaus? seminal 1991 paper was one of
the first to estimate the effect of climate change on economic output (Nordhaus, 1991).
Second, our paper relates to the literature that has started to analyse the transmission of climate risks
across borders.
In this strand, however, the focus remains mostly on transition risks (Devulder & Lisack,
2020, Frankovic, 2022, Krivorotov, 2022).
Third, we connect to the literature on the study of the propagation of climate physical risks across
borders, which remains underdeveloped.
To
our knowledge this paper is the first to apply IO modelling with physical risks on a global scale.
However, the authors use a general equilibrium modelling approach and estimate
how sectoral changes in productivity due to physical climate risks affect a global, multisectoral,
intertemporal general equilibrium model.
This paper aims at making economic impact assessments of climate change more realistic by
incorporating a key element of globalization.
More specifically, this paper is the first to analyse the
transmission of GDP losses from climate change related physical risks through global country-sector
input-output linkages.
), this paper makes a first important step towards getting a more realistic
picture of the risks arising from climate change.
The natural hazards
influenced by climate change are many and include floods and inundations, droughts, heatwaves,
windstorms, and wildfires.
Importantly, physical risks do not only have a direct impact on the economy, as cascading or amplifying
effects are also possible through input-output linkages.
In general, the global economy is exposed to physical risks which generate GDP losses.
Specifically, SPGlobal GDP-at-risk data are used to quantify the potential
direct impact of physical risks on GDP at the country level.
This is done to account
for the fact that the realization of physical risks from climate change reduces both domestic final demand
and production capacity (Feng and Li, 2021).
Figure 2: GDP at risk from climate change-related physical risks, RCP 8.5 scenario
Source: SP Global and ECB
3.3 Modelling climate shocks
The IO tables system is initially in equilibrium.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2942
21

Figure 4: GDP-at-risk resulting from IO amplification of physical risks under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
ECB Working Paper Series No 2942
22

Figure 5: GDP-at-risk resulting from IO amplification of physical risks under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
However, not analysing the amplification of climate risks through supply chains for
lack of data could lead to a large underestimation of the risks posed by climate change for economic and
financial stability.
Adams, K. M., Benzie, M. & Croft, S. Climate change, trade, and global food security: a global
assessment of transboundary climate risks in agricultural commodity flows.
In this sense, the
exposure to physical risks of direct trading partners is a limited indicator for the amplification of losses
through global value chains.

Designing a macroprudential capital buffer for climate-related risks

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tisdag, maj 28, 2024

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Abstract

Key Points:

Abstract
Amid the growing financial vulnerabilities posed by climate change, we investigate macroprudential capital buffers to mitigate systemic risks and increase the resilience of the banking
sector.
Subsequently, we introduce a methodological framework for tailoring bank-specific buffer requirements to cover these losses, offering macroprudential authorities a practical method for
calibrating climate-related macroprudential capital buffers, complementing microprudential
policies.
The study demonstrates the potential of macroprudential capital buffers to mitigate potential climate-related losses and contributes to the
understanding of the appropriate prudential policy response to these challenges.
Second, we propose a calibration methodology for a macroprudential capital buffer which
allows to address the build-up of climate-related systemic risks in the banking sector.
The
proposed calibration methodology assigns different systemic risk buffer requirements to banks
in different buckets depending on each bank?s exposure to the estimated climate risks.
Our findings highlight the potential systemic relevance of climate
risks, while the proposed methodology demonstrates the potential of macroprudential capital
buffers to mitigate climate-related losses.
Overall, this paper makes a significant
step towards operationalizing macroprudential capital buffers for climate-related risks, and can
inform prudential authorities? reflections on how to concretly implement macroprudential tools
to address the build-up of these risks.
Yet, despite the growing consensus on the systemic features of climate risks,
the discussion on the concrete implementation of macroprudential tools for climate risk is only
incipient.
This paper explores how climate risks should be accounted for in the regulatory framework,
providing an analysis of how macroprudential capital buffers can be tailored to effectively address
the systemic aspects of these specific risks.
In Section 2, we discuss the current
policy context around macroprudential policy targeting climate-related systemic risk, as well as
the positioning of the paper in the existing academic literature.
As part of the discussion on incorporating climate-related risk considerations into the prudential framework, macroprudential tools, including capital buffers, are increasingly being considered to address systemic aspects of climate-related risks, complementing microprudential
measures.
Yet, no common methodology currently exists to calibrate such buffer, which may hinder
its actual use to address climate risks, should macroprudential authorities decide to use it.
Our paper also contributes to the policy discussion by tackling some of the challenges
which have been identified regarding the use of macroprudential tools for climate risks.
In
particular, ECB-ESRB (2022) identify the complex calibration as one of the hurdles to overcome
in order to implement a climate SyRB.
(2023) also estimate US banks? exposure to transition risk based on the carbon footprint of
their syndicated loan portfolio.
7
Similarly, earlier work by Campiglio (2016) suggests the use of green macroprudential policy in stimulating
banks to finance low carbon activities.
ECB Working Paper Series No 28xx
10

brown firms could actually even cause a reduction in lending to green firms via a crowding-out
effect.
We contribute to this literature by proposing a harmonized methodological framework,
based on a stress test methodology and granular supervisory data, to quantify a macroprudential capital buffer requirement to tackle climate-related risks in the euro area banking sector.
23
The extent to which the climate SyRB might overlap with other capital (buffer) requirements can also be
used to inform macroprudential authorities? decision on the optimal calibration factor, as discussed in Section 3.3
and 4.3.
The proposed
bucketing methodology also provides macroprudential authorities with sufficient flexibility to
tailor the framework to the particularities of each jurisdiction (EBA, 2020).
Finally, when implementing a bucketing approach, macroprudential authorities need to be
mindful that such approaches have the potential to cause cliff effects.
Hence, a
bucketing approach translating bank-specific projected transition risk losses into capital addons appears to be both more prudent and more efficient.
Assuming
financial institutions do not hold additional provisions beyond the current policies scenario,
transition risk losses will directly affect their capital positions.
We define the excess CET1 ratio
as the bank?s CET1 ratio minus the sum of all capital and buffer requirements (including P2G).
The SyRB is therefore able to
almost fully offset the impact of a transition shock on capital positions at the system-wide level.
31
Assuming banks preserve their capital buffer in response to this increase in capital requirements.
As an example, macroprudential authorities? assessment of the potential overlap of
the climate SyRB with other capital (buffer) requirements may be helpful in this discussion.
The scenario
used for calibration of a macroprudential capital buffer like the SyRB will need to be chosen
carefully to correctly identify realistic sources of systemic risk, including the potential interaction
between transition risk and physical risk.
Fourth, concrete implementation would need to ensure that macroprudential capital buffers are
not targeting climate-related risks already covered by other microprudential or macroprudential
capital (buffer) requirements, to avoid any overlap of requirements and double-counting of risks.

Let the Sleuthing Begin: Detective Nancy Drew Returns in a Thrilling New Mystery Adventure Game with 34th Case Set in Prague

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tisdag, maj 7, 2024

Language, Map, Research, Heart, City, Theft, Software, Alchemy, Her, 3D, Life, Seven Keys, History, Environment, Entertainment technology, ESRB, Logic, HeR Interactive, Entertainment, Video game

RENTON, Wash., May 7, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- Today, HeR Interactive launches the latest game in the critically acclaimed Nancy Drew franchise, Nancy Drew®: Mystery of the Seven Keys™. In the highly anticipated game, players will be immersed in 3D environments that capture the heart of the historic city of Prague. Tasked with uncovering the truth behind the theft of a client's heirloom necklace, players will sharpen their detective skills as they solve intricate puzzles woven throughout the rich narrative, investigate suspects, and search for clues as the iconic Nancy Drew. As the case deepens, Nancy finds herself entwined with medieval legends, alchemy, lore, and sinister cybercrimes as players uncover the real mystery behind the legend of the seven keys.

Key Points:

HeR Interactive launches the latest game in the critically acclaimed Nancy Drew franchise, Nancy Drew®: Mystery of the Seven Keys™
RENTON, Wash., May 7, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- Today, HeR Interactive launches the latest game in the critically acclaimed Nancy Drew franchise, Nancy Drew®: Mystery of the Seven Keys™ .
Nancy Drew: Mystery of the Seven Keys is compatible with Windows® and Mac® operating systems and is available exclusively at herinteractive.com for $32.00.
"Besides discovering new locales, our Nancy Drew games are recognized for their immersive storytelling, engaging gameplay, and emphasis on critical thinking.
Nancy Drew: Mystery of the Seven Keys will introduce many new gameplay features, including a unique dual navigation system.

“RALLY ON” in TopSpin® 2K25 Now Available Worldwide

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fredag, april 26, 2024

(Graphic: Business Wire)

Key Points:

(Graphic: Business Wire)
“After over a decade since the last iteration of TopSpin, we’re excited to be able to share TopSpin 2K25 with the world,” said Remi Ercolani, Gaming Director at Hangar 13.
48 unique courts will be available to play or unlock from launch, including 15 real-life venues, from the four Grand Slam® tournaments to all nine ATP Masters 1000 venues.
The Centre Court Pass for Season 1 will be available as TopSpin 2K25 launches and will be themed around Roland-Garros.
Follow TopSpin 2K on TikTok , Instagram , X , YouTube , and Facebook for the latest TopSpin 2K25 news.

Discover Vibrant Realms and Bantu Myths in Tales of Kenzera™: ZAU, Surgent Studios’ Heartfelt Indie Adventure

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tisdag, april 23, 2024

Guided by Kalunga, the God of Death, Zau navigates mystical 2.5D realms, striving to harness the cosmic powers of the sun and the moon.

Key Points:

Guided by Kalunga, the God of Death, Zau navigates mystical 2.5D realms, striving to harness the cosmic powers of the sun and the moon.
Tales of Kenzera: ZAU takes players on an evocative voyage of spiritual healing in which resilience in the face of adversity reveals one’s true character and strength.
“Surgent Studios has created a challenging and vibrant platformer with a resonant story of strength and bravery.
For more information and to stay up to date on Tales of Kenzera: ZAU, visit https://www.ea.com/games/tales-of-kenzera/zau
*Offers may vary or change.