Journal of International Economics

Isabel Schnabel: The benefits and costs of asset purchases

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вторник, мая 28, 2024

Large-Scale Asset Purchases can impact the price of securities directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio re-balancing of private investors.

Key Points: 
  • Large-Scale Asset Purchases can impact the price of securities directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio re-balancing of private investors.
  • We quantify both the direct and the portfolio re-balancing impact, emphasizing the role of investor heterogeneity.
  • We use proprietary security-level data on asset holdings of different investors.

Turbulent times: geopolitical risk and its impact on euro area financial stability

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вторник, мая 28, 2024

Looking ahead, policy authorities need to monitor geopolitical risk and assess its possible consequences for financial stability.

Key Points: 
  • Looking ahead, policy authorities need to monitor geopolitical risk and assess its possible consequences for financial stability.
  • Financial institutions should apply a combination of sound risk management and business diversification to address geopolitical risk.

Household inflation expectations: an overview of recent insights for monetary policy

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вторник, мая 28, 2024
Diamond, Directorate, Investment, Section 3, Sum, Canadian International Council, Journal of Consumer Affairs, Q&A, Motivation, American Economic Journal, European Economic Review, NBER, Credit, Vol, Long Shadow, Thumb, Trust, Semantics, Optimism, Research, American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics, Disinflation, Central bank, Paper, Statistics, University of Chicago, Doepke, Movement, Economic Inquiry, Consumer protection, Collection, Topa, Federal Reserve Bank, Journal, Isabella Tree, Clinical study design, Section 2, International Economic Review, Cross, UC, Consumer confidence index, Prevalence, University, Suite, Overweight, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Appendix, Diffusion, DNB, Knowledge, Economy, Hand, Journal of Economics, German reunification, Macmillan Inc., Blinder, News, Risk, Emotion, International finance, Monetary economics, Quarterly Journal, Elsevier, Figure, FOMC, ECB, Importance, International economics, Journal of Financial Economics, Pessimism, Shleifer, Housing, Deutsche Bundesbank, Communication, 2022–23 Feyenoord season, Journal of Economic Literature, R.E, Behavior, Expected shortfall, Journal of International Economics, Skill, Consumer, COVID-19, Economic methodology, Employment, Macmillan Publishers, Forecasting, Bank, Fed, Policy, Attention, HICP, Memory, Patzelt, Communism, Environment, Acceleration, Female, CPI, Political economy, Working paper, Code, E31, Bank of England, Woman, Small business, Male, European, The Journal of Finance, See, Growth, American Economic Association, Observation, Electricity, Thought, Noise, RCT, Supermarket, Food, Persistent, Section 5, General Public, Probability, Synthetic control method, Social capital, Transmission, IMF Economic Review, Annual Review of Economics, National academy, Shock, Financial economics, Literacy, SCE, Journal of Political Economy, Second, George Selgin, Lane, Parent, Television, Intuition, SPF, Econometric Society, Inflation, Federal Open Market Committee, Cambridge University Press, Transport, Manuscript, Section 4, Bias, Maurice Vellekoop, Social media, Mishkin, FIRE, European Economic Association, Erosion, Academic Press, University of California, Berkeley, Learning, Neutral, Lighting, De Nederlandsche Bank, Internet, Traction, European Commission, Face, Methodology, European Central Bank, Data collection, Literature, Rate, Politics, New Keynesian economics, Radio, Ball, Journal of Economic Psychology, ELB, African Americans, CES, Acquisition, Logic, Cryptocurrency

Key Points: 

    The globalization of climate change: amplification of climate-related physical risks through input-output linkages

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    вторник, мая 28, 2024
    Shift, Carbon, Microeconomics, GVA, SP, Social science, Global value chain, Canadian International Council, Babiker Awadalla, GDP, American Economic Journal, Mathematics, European Economic Review, NBER, Climate change, HFCE, Database, Ecological economics, Nature, Multi, Suez Canal, Employment, Climate, Network, Iams, Temperature, Wildfire, Collection, IGO, Incidence, FD, Greenhouse gas, Weather, A1, Tax, SNB, GVC, Chapter Ten, Demand, World Bank Group, FGL, Environmental change, Financial system, Aerosol, Knowledge, Semiconductor, Engineering, Risk, Classification, Bank of France, Research Papers in Economics, Central bank, GGFC, ArXiv, ECB, International economics, Turner, Reproduction, Element, Haraguchi, Sustainability, Table, Swiss National Bank, World Bank, Journal of International Economics, Note, TRI, PNNL, COVID-19, USD, Senner, IMF, ISSN, Policy, Royal Society, GPD, Springer, Website, Energy, Working paper, Economic Modelling, ZG, Probability, AX, Growth, Journal of Business Research, Biodiversity, The Economic Journal, Greenhouse effect, Abstract, Control, EDS, MDA, Methodology, AP, Food, Disaster risk reduction, GVCS, Trade, Horse, Investment, The Economist Group, OECD, International Monetary Fund, M. A, National academy, Shock, Agriculture, Intermediate, Drought, Intuition, Inventory, Elasticity, Physical, Social, Motion, PDF, Outsourcing, GFCF, Change, Journal of Economic Issues, Soybean, Natural disaster, Greenhouse, TLS, Movement, Heat, CO2, Research, ESRB, GHG, Least squares, Forecasting, Routledge, Face, Input/output, Dell, European Central Bank, Great, Sasahara, Literature, PD, Global Environmental Change, Keen, Wind, MATRIX, Elis James, Kraft Foods, SSRN, Steel, Energy economics, Noronha, Insurance, Data, RCP, Forestry, Building, Health, ISIC, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, IPCC, F18, Matrix

    To address this shortcoming, this paper for the first

    Key Points: 
      • To address this shortcoming, this paper for the first
        time combines country-level GDP losses due to climate-related physical risks with a global Input-Output
        model.
      • More specifically, climate-related GDP-at-risk data are used to quantify the potential direct
        impact of physical risks on GDP at the country or regional level.
      • JEL Classification: E01, Q54, Q56, F18
        Keywords: Supply chains, physical risk, climate change

        ECB Working Paper Series No 2942

        1

        Non-technical summary
        The estimation of real-economic damages due to climate change physical risks remains an important
        challenge in the face of global warming.

      • Many economic models make significant simplifications on
        the channels of transmission of climate physical risks across the globe, often giving the impression that
        the risks for the Euro Area will be relatively small.
      • In particular, the role of global supply chains in the
        transmission and potential amplification of climate related physical risks has received little attention.
      • This is relevant because climatologists predict that direct impacts from climate change-induced natural
        disasters will materialize mainly outside the Euro Area.
      • Understanding potential real economy losses would also contribute to better portray the risks which
        could spill over into the financial system.
      • Introduction
        Recent estimates of real-economic damages due to climate change physical risks do not appear
        incredibly worrying, not at least those for European countries.
      • The ECB climate stress test of 2022 also finds relatively little impact from physical risks.
      • Nordhaus? seminal 1991 paper was one of
        the first to estimate the effect of climate change on economic output (Nordhaus, 1991).
      • Second, our paper relates to the literature that has started to analyse the transmission of climate risks
        across borders.
      • In this strand, however, the focus remains mostly on transition risks (Devulder & Lisack,
        2020, Frankovic, 2022, Krivorotov, 2022).
      • Third, we connect to the literature on the study of the propagation of climate physical risks across
        borders, which remains underdeveloped.
      • To
        our knowledge this paper is the first to apply IO modelling with physical risks on a global scale.
      • However, the authors use a general equilibrium modelling approach and estimate
        how sectoral changes in productivity due to physical climate risks affect a global, multisectoral,
        intertemporal general equilibrium model.
      • This paper aims at making economic impact assessments of climate change more realistic by
        incorporating a key element of globalization.
      • More specifically, this paper is the first to analyse the
        transmission of GDP losses from climate change related physical risks through global country-sector
        input-output linkages.
      • ), this paper makes a first important step towards getting a more realistic
        picture of the risks arising from climate change.
      • The natural hazards
        influenced by climate change are many and include floods and inundations, droughts, heatwaves,
        windstorms, and wildfires.
      • Importantly, physical risks do not only have a direct impact on the economy, as cascading or amplifying
        effects are also possible through input-output linkages.
      • In general, the global economy is exposed to physical risks which generate GDP losses.
      • Specifically, SPGlobal GDP-at-risk data are used to quantify the potential
        direct impact of physical risks on GDP at the country level.
      • This is done to account
        for the fact that the realization of physical risks from climate change reduces both domestic final demand
        and production capacity (Feng and Li, 2021).
      • Figure 2: GDP at risk from climate change-related physical risks, RCP 8.5 scenario
        Source: SP Global and ECB

        3.3 Modelling climate shocks
        The IO tables system is initially in equilibrium.

      • ECB Working Paper Series No 2942

        21

        Figure 4: GDP-at-risk resulting from IO amplification of physical risks under the RCP 8.5 scenario.

      • ECB Working Paper Series No 2942

        22

        Figure 5: GDP-at-risk resulting from IO amplification of physical risks under the RCP 8.5 scenario.

      • However, not analysing the amplification of climate risks through supply chains for
        lack of data could lead to a large underestimation of the risks posed by climate change for economic and
        financial stability.
      • Adams, K. M., Benzie, M. & Croft, S. Climate change, trade, and global food security: a global
        assessment of transboundary climate risks in agricultural commodity flows.
      • In this sense, the
        exposure to physical risks of direct trading partners is a limited indicator for the amplification of losses
        through global value chains.

    Mutual funds and safe government bonds: do returns matter?

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    четверг, апреля 25, 2024
    ACT, Safe Haven, Research Papers in Economics, Flight, Policy, B.3, ICAPM, RT, Journal of International Economics, Krishnamurti, Business, CIP, International, Observation, P25, Safety, A23, Benchmarking, B.2, FX, Paper, TSD, Environment, Journal of Financial Economics, Bogdanov, Federal, Website, United, A14, Total, The Economic Journal, Eurozone, Face, G11, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Interest rate parity, History, WD, Investment, Liquidity premium, Politics, OLS, Statistics, G15, Caballero, PDF, Classification, ECB, Foreign exchange market, AC, P99, Federal funds, Froot, Lethargy, Social science, Interest, JEL, Bias, Journal, Research, Journal of Economic Literature, The Journal of Finance, E.3, Literature, Federal Reserve, Parity, European Central Bank, AA, Annual Review, Growth, Bank of England, FRED, S&P, Injection, Risk, Elasticity, Government, G12, Finance, BIS, S1, JL, E.1, Money, Depreciation, Asset, Treasury, Federal Reserve Economic Data, A11, A10, R2, Section 4, UMP, A4, Boj, Section 3, Accounting, SJ, Fed, Mutual fund, Lustig, University of Lausanne, Section 2, P75, Foreign-exchange reserves of India, Assets under management, A19, GBP, FE, American Economic Review, A22, E.5, A3, A21, Flight-to-liquidity, Aggregate demand, G23, WT, USD, Autocorrelation, CAD, UIP, Currency, XR, Quarterly Journal, Appendix H, Capital, P95, A6, Zhu, University, B.1, P50, CHF, Transmission, Swings, Estate (law), EUR, Bank for International Settlements, JPY, E.4, Central bank, Multicollinearity, Bank, Fixed effects model, Reproduction, CAP, The Atlanta Jewish Times, VIX, Data, Om, Lobster

    Key Points: 

      Dominant currency pricing in international trade of services

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      четверг, апреля 25, 2024

      Abstract

      Key Points: 
        • Abstract
          We analyze, for the first time, how firms choose the currency in which they price transactions
          in international trade of services and investigate, using direct evidence, whether the US dollar
          (USD) plays a dominant role in services trade.
        • JEL: F14, F31, F41
          Keywords: dominant currency paradigm, international trade, services.
        • Related research has
          shown that the US dollar (USD) exchange rate is a major source of swings in
          global trade in goods?a ?dominant currency pricing? (DCP) phenomenon?since
          most goods traded internationally are invoiced and sticky in USD.
        • Yet it is also key to look at dominant currency pricing in international trade
          in services for several reasons.
        • First, global trade in services is big?accounting for
          about a quarter of global gross trade flows and for around 40% in terms of valueadded trade.
        • Third, and relatedly, the
          future of globalisation might be in trade in intermediate services?as progress with
          digitech lowers technological barriers to such trade across borders.
        • But perhaps the main reason is that trade in services is conceptually different
          from trade in goods.
        • Our paper is the first, to our best knowledge, that analyzes how firms choose
          the currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and
          that examines whether dominant currency pricing differs between trade in goods
          and services using direct evidence? hitherto unavailable?on patterns of currency
          choices in international transactions in services compared to goods.
        • Work on dominant currency pricing has
          almost exclusively focused on trade in goods.
        • One reason is that data on patterns
          in invoicing currency for trade in services are ?virtually nonexistent? (Adler et al.
        • Yet it is important to look at dominant currency pricing in international trade
          in services for several reasons.
        • Using the exporter?s (or producer) currency in exports is known in the literature as producer
          currency pricing (PCP), while using the importer?s currency is known as local currency pricing (LCP)
          and using a third currency is known as vehicle currency pricing (VCP).
        • Our paper is the first, to our best knowledge, that analyzes how firms choose the
          currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and that
          examines whether dominant currency pricing differs between international trade in
          goods and services using direct evidence ? hitherto unavailable ? on patterns of
          currency choices in international transactions in services compared to goods.
        • First,
          we rule out compositional effects, that is that differences in the use of currencies
          reflect differences in trade partners in services vs. goods trade.
        • Both in extra-EU and intra-EU trade, the EUR is the
          most widely used currency, be it on the export or import side.
        • Based
          on the framework, we stress which factors should determine currency choices in
          international trade, and to what extent one should expect differences between
          services trade and goods trade.
        • Second, it can price in the importer?s currency
          (local currency pricing, LCP).4 Third, it can use a third currency, say currency
          v (vehicle currency pricing, VCP).
        • That is,
          the currency choice problem is equivalent to determining the currency in which the
          desired price is least volatile.
        • (2022)
          provide systematic empirical evidence ? firm size and exposure to foreign currencies
          in imported inputs ? should also shape currency choices in services trade.
        • Dominant currency pricing in USD ? services vs. goods trade
          Having established that currency choice in international trade of services is an
          active firm-level decision as well as the determinants of this decision, we now

          8.

        • Services and goods exports: prevalence of different pricing strategies (percent)
          Notes: The table shows the shares (in value terms) of different pricing strategies: producer currency
          pricing (PCP), local currency pricing (LCP) and vehicle currency pricing (VCP).
        • To make comparisons with goods trade, we rely on Eurostat?s
          macro data on international trade in goods by invoivcing currency.
        • If intra-EU trade is more important in services than
          in goods trade, this could hence be an explanation for the lower prevalence of the
          USD in services trade.
        • We showed
          that while the USD is also extensively used as a vehicle currency in services trade, its
          prevalence is systematically lower than in goods trade.
        • Hence for all travel services exports
          the invoicing currency is the EUR; for travel imports it is the currency of the
          destination of travel (i.e.
        • Also for these

          ECB Working Paper Series No 2932

          33

          services it seems plausible that trade does not take place vis-?-vis all counterparts
          in each currency.

        • Figure B.2: Share of international trade in services in global GDP broken down by type (%)
          Notes: Authors? calculations using World Bank and World Trade Organization data.
        • An earlier version of this paper circulated under the title ?Currency choices and the role of the
          U.S. dollar in international services trade?.

      Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: evidence from Germany

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      вторник, апреля 23, 2024
      Consensus, Online, Cream, Honey, Tax, Glass, MAPI, Consensus Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Milk, Shower, Low-alcohol beer, Autoregressive–moving-average model, Infant, C3, Islam, Wine, Core inflation, Research Papers in Economics, National accounts, Kálmán, Barcode, Journal of International Economics, Communication, Royal Statistical Society, COVID19, Kohl (cosmetics), Natural disaster, Business, Observation, Paper, VAT, European Economic Review, Diebold Nixdorf, Blancmange, Calendar, Sunflower oil, Annual Review of Economics, Hand, C4, DESTATIS, NBER, Tinning, Razor, Forecasting, Gasoline, Coffee, European Economic Association, Cat, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Medeiros, Architecture, Oxford University Press, Producer, GfK, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Margarine, NCBS, Starch, Political economy, Consistency, COVID-19, Consensus decision-making, Website, MIDAS, Behavior, Deutsche Bundesbank, PPI, World Bank, Collection, Medical classification, Orange, Eurozone, Butter, FMCG, Noise, Travel, Clothing, History, Inflation, Liver, International economics, Journal of Political Economy, BSI, OLS, Statistics, Consumer, PDF, University of Chicago, Classification, ECB, Fats, Policy, Multi, WOB, Outline, C6, Mincing, Canadian International Council, Social science, Perfume, University of California, Berkeley, Journal of Forecasting, Federal Reserve Bank, JEL, L1, Journal, Research, Candle, Food, TPD, Credit, Spice, LPG, Janssen, Marmalade, Superior, Literature, Chocolate, Beef, Kiel University, European Central Bank, Natural gas, HICP, Monetary economics, Yogurt, Section 5, ILO, Bermingham, Price, GTIN, Cheese, Macroeconomics, Growth, Beck, XJ, Government, De Beer, Supermarket, Ice cream, Naturally, C53, Corn flakes, BIS, Biscuit, LASSO, Petroleum, A.2, Poultry, Accuracy and precision, Application, White, Lettuce, Risk, ESCB, University of Siegen, OECD, Chapter One, Lipstick, Sack, XT, BIC, Garlic, Consumption, Sokol, Meat, VAR, Database, Section 3, Rusk, American Economic Journal, Royal, Curd, Overalls, Lamb, Great Lockdown, Fruit, Economy, COICOP, International Journal of Forecasting, Aftershave, Section 2, Nonparametric statistics, Attention, Conference, CPI, Heat, Public economics, Common sunflower, Nowcasting, American Economic Review, Computational Statistics (journal), GFK, COVID-19 pandemic, Exercise, Shock, Running, UNECE, Edible, Gambling, Banco, Rigid transformation, European Commission, Frozen, C.2, PRISMA, Official statistics, Concept, Drink, Transaction data, Somatosensory system, Punctuality, Altbier, Food prices, Response, GDP, Index, E31, Cabinet of Germany, Holiday, Machine learning, Series, Green, Whisky, Vegetable, Cola, Journal of Econometrics, Sadik Harchaoui, University, Aggregate, World Bank Group, B.1, Use, Book, Economic statistics, Civil service commission, 1L, Apple, Bread, Filter, Central bank, Brandeis University, Economic Modelling, Bank, Barkan, Roulade, Dairy product, Neural network, Reproduction, IMF, Section, ID, Data, D4L, Cryptocurrency

      Key Points: 

        Is home bias biased? New evidence from the investment fund sector

        Retrieved on: 
        четверг, апреля 18, 2024
        Rule of law, Journal of Accounting Research, Capital control, Domestic, CEPII, Research Papers in Economics, M. B, Regression analysis, Journal of International Economics, Foreign, Economic growth, Methodology, Row, International, Intuition, Risk, Heritage, Economic development, Goethe University Frankfurt, Overweight, Journal of Monetary Economics, Accounting research, International business, Paper, Political economy, Journal of Financial Economics, Environment, Website, United, Category, World Bank, Probability, Medical classification, Sun, Appendix, Handbook, G11, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Frankfurt, Institution, Investment, International economics, Journal of Political Economy, Corporation, G15, Logic, Dow Jones, PDF, Classification, ECB, CEIC, Károlyi, Policy, Outline, Household, Social science, JEL, Real, Bias, FDI, Journal, Research, Journal of Economic Literature, Credit, The Journal of Finance, Literature, Nationalization, European Central Bank, AA, Culture, Growth, Monetary economics, Section 5, Kho, Rule, Rogoff, Developed country, AAA, Finance, SHS, Control, Variable, Section 4, Language, Section 3, Role, Economy, Financial economics, Section 2, Freedom, Central bank, Incidence, Law, The Heritage Foundation, American Economic Review, Obstfeld, SSRN, Foreign direct investment, G23, Corruption, Quarterly Journal, Financial statement analysis, GDP, IMF Economic Review, Schumacher, University, MVI, Demirci, Dependent and independent variables, Lane, Common, Magazine, Bank, Reproduction, Security (finance)

        Key Points: 

          Isabel Schnabel: R(ising) star?

          Retrieved on: 
          среда, апреля 3, 2024

          This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.

          Key Points: 
          • This box investigates how households have responded to the 2021-23 inflationary episode using evidence from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey.
          • The findings suggest that households have primarily adjusted their consumption spending to cope with higher inflation.

          Isabel Schnabel: From laggard to leader? Closing the euro area’s technology gap

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          суббота, февраля 17, 2024
          Eurofi, Lecture, NGEU, Research, European Economic Association, GameChanger, Artificial intelligence, European Investment Bank, Education, Investment, Mining, Invention, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Growth, Superstar, Commerce, MIT Press, Labour economics, GDP, Health, Christian Social Union (UK), Climate change, History, Information technology, CompStat, Applied economics, ICC, Policy, Apple, Public policy, Diagnosis, Federal Reserve, European Parliament, Literature, NBER, Ageing, International economics, Software, Metal, Productivity, New Vision (newspaper), Review of World Economics, Recovery, Next Generation, Computer, MIT, Journal of Labor Economics, Nicolaus Copernicus, Journal of Monetary Economics, Craft, EDIS, European Fiscal Board, Howitt, International Chamber of Commerce, Financial management, Council, Journal, Electricity, Congress, Nobel, American Economic Journal, Transatlantic, Communication, Environment, Journal of Economic Perspectives, European Commission, American Economic Review, European Economic Review, Capital market, Economic impact analysis, Indicator, Demography, World War II, Paul Krugman, Single market, RRF, Macroeconomics, IMF, Daniel Schwaab, Frankfurt, Conference, Aggression, Carbon, Civil service commission, European Central Bank, Rise, Business, Labor share, Skill, Democracy, Heart, Quarterly Journal, E.F, Speech, Public, Public sector, OECD, Reproduction, Internet, Monetary economics, Fabiani, AI, Labour, Intangibles, Paper, Government, Competition, Economic and monetary union, Journal of International Economics, Organization, Treaty, Diffusion, Observation, Autumn, COVID-19, Resilience, Amazon, Role, Hand, Lost, EMU, Unemployment, ECB

          This paper, by means of a DSGE model including heterogeneous firms and banks, financial frictions and prudential regulation, first shows the need of climate-related capital requirements in the existing prudential framework.

          Key Points: 
          • This paper, by means of a DSGE model including heterogeneous firms and banks, financial frictions and prudential regulation, first shows the need of climate-related capital requirements in the existing prudential framework.
          • We further show that relying on microprudential regulation alone would not be enough to account for the systemic dimension of transition risk.